Govt considers ETS change options, including taking carbon sequestration credits out of ETS and having a separate market; Hipkins wobbles on surgery equity; Market study on banks imminent; Botched BCR
Hey fellow Kaka readers - any thoughts on 'a vote for National is a vote for Act', i.e . let's have more of Seymour's libertarian ideology + climate denial at the heart of govt.
I've been pitching that line around my limited social media exposure for months, it doesn't appear to alter anyone's position, though that may be a reflection of the polarization in those mediums vs what the teeming middle think
What would be more horrifying is another 3 years of an inept Labour government in coalition with Greens & Te Pati Māori. And if we had to agree with ALL of a party’s policies before voting for them, then we’d never vote.
Oh the irony. If you let the ETS do it’s thing the price of fossil fuel will increase, encouraging more mindful motoring which would support lower speed.
Thank goodness you are back. It’s been very tedious reading the commentary on current affairs without your acerbic insights. Holidays are necessary and good, but they come at an intellectual cost
I don't know what is behind successive NZ govts strict adherence to debt containment, albeit dropped for a time during Covid. But readers should understand that low debt does not equal low interest rates (NZ currently!) You can also have high debt and high rates (Brazil - be careful what you wish for?) zero net debt and relatively high rates (Norway, because the central bank wants it that way) extremely high debt and low rates (Japan). The two are simply not coupled the way it might sound.
Excellent intro to macro, Duane. Honestly, where is Whiteboard Friday featuring Geoff Simmons when you need it? Everyone falls for the fallacy that national accounts are just like household accounts. Wasn’t it M Thatcher who is responsible for that shibboleth? It has outlasted her.
Unfortunately the crazed spawn of Thatcher have managed the dubious achievement of both wrecking UK public services and the commercial economy. This should be a salutary lesson for anyone who gives credence to ACT policies.
NewstalkZB setting the political agenda. No surprises there. Just BAU. And when they are taken to task to the (toothless) BSA, it turns out they don't employ journalists as their mouth pieces, they have opinionists on the payroll.
Oh no, I don't mean I'm literally 'still waiting' like I'm wondering what TF you do all day. More I'm hoping that at some point you get a chance to give me reason to stop fantasizing about my escape as soon as my kids finish high school.... Prob seems like a post-election kind of a thing...we'll REALLY need it then!
I have been enjoying your work for a while now. Often however, I can't help but feel that the rate of climate change is rather making the discussions meaningless. Your policy recommendations as good as they are, only make sense if IPCC modelling is accurate. The problem as I see it, is that the IPCC is essentially a conservative voice based on the consensus of science and policy makers.
It's models only take into account fast feedbacks (such as cloud cover - which has it's own problems) and ignores slow feedbacks. It is looking like these are not anywhere as slow as once thought, with arctic melt, albedo changes, permafrost breakdown, rainforest emissions (I could go on) happening at rates that make the likely 2100 temperatures will eclipse RPC 8.5.
Putting the models to one side, and looking at Paleoclimate data, - see: James Hansen et al. in his latest paper (https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.04474) we've already blown way past 1.5°C. Based on emissions to date, we are heading for an equilibrium temperature of +7 to +10°C. And at timescales that will certainly impact our children and grandchildren.
I can't help but feel that our best option now is to think about the radical deep adaption that we will need to save at least some of what this human civilisation has created.
I live in a rural area where local farmers have been outbid for productive farms by international companies milking the ETS for all it's worth. It has turned high quality, productive sheep and beef farmland into pine forest. We - and the district - have been gutted.
Our rural service towns depend on farmers' custom. Already several agriculture-related businesses which employ numerous staff have gone to the wall. More are likely to follow.
Sheep numbers are now the lowest they've been in recent history. The hill country grows lambs which are sold for export or for fattening elsewhere. Lambing is designed to work around the climate. They are born in July or August and are off the farm in December when the east coast hill country starts to dry out. They use no irrigation. They work with what is available and fertiliser use is minimal. Our farms here win environmental awards.
The recent announcement that local councils can determine via resource consents which land can or can't go into forestry is very welcome. Labour has been dilatory in stemming the tide of farm sales to foreign organisations. Despite what forestry interests tell everyone, once a farm is in forestry it requires minimal work and contractors are brought in from outside the district to trim the trees. There are almost no employment opportunities for locals.
Farmers have not sat on their hands. They have planted thousands and thousands of native trees and some exotics and retired a lot of farmland. A smaller proportion of farmland is now used as paddocks. The focus is on high-quality meat-producing sheep which have a smaller environmental footprint than previously.
He waka eke noa (which included government negotiators) came up with a deal which everyone had agreed to - even the more conservative elements.
The government ignored the hard work by their own officials on He waka eke noa and decided that the huge plantings of native and exotic trees on each farm couldn't be measured for carbon sequestering purposes and would not be discounted from what farmers had to pay. This is nonsense. A skilled GIS operator could verify the land involved easily.
So everything fell apart. Alarm bells are sounding within National - the traditional home of farmers - as many of them are heading in Act's direction.
Robert, I think they agree with Act's adverts, which are strategically good, as well as topical/current and 'populist' (e.g. 3 strikes crime reform in the context of increases in bold smash& grab robberies by youth offenders).
Who is going to reveal the wolf in sheep's clothing (Seymour) to NZers?
For ages I've been aware of ActionStation petitions and I knew not what else.. Recently I signed up for a webinar called Economics for the People. It was nearly 2 hours long and superb. The speakers were Matt Scobie from UC who took as his starting point the pre-contact Maori economy and on to today, Jane Kelsey who is stunning on the 80's and 90's and hence where we find ourselves today and lastly Max Harris who spoke mostly about shifting our neoliberal tax straightjacket. Kassie Hartendorp hosted it and about a thousand people turned up
.Because it is action focused it follows on well from what Bernard enlightens us about on the Kaka. You probably all know this But I'm paying more attention now. More lively than getting despondent about the polly parties. If you can access the webinar recording somewhere it is a good dose of motivation.
I've paused mid read to congratulate you Bernard on reading my mind exactly!!
Hey fellow Kaka readers - any thoughts on 'a vote for National is a vote for Act', i.e . let's have more of Seymour's libertarian ideology + climate denial at the heart of govt.
I've been pitching that line around my limited social media exposure for months, it doesn't appear to alter anyone's position, though that may be a reflection of the polarization in those mediums vs what the teeming middle think
Yep, anyone I've spoken to who is considering voting for Act is doing it "to add discipline to a National government" (bleergh!)
I am horrified at the number of people in NZ who agree with Act's policies.
What would be more horrifying is another 3 years of an inept Labour government in coalition with Greens & Te Pati Māori. And if we had to agree with ALL of a party’s policies before voting for them, then we’d never vote.
another 3 years of an inept Labour government is a horrifying thought,
but Acts policies are far/vastly more horrifying!!!
at this stage/time I have concluded that I will probably not vote at the next election
(no party has the policies I believe to be essential for New Zealand's people)
Oh the irony. If you let the ETS do it’s thing the price of fossil fuel will increase, encouraging more mindful motoring which would support lower speed.
Some extra information about the Auckland Council turning down the housing development at Riverhead: part of the development land is on a flood plain.
Thank goodness you are back. It’s been very tedious reading the commentary on current affairs without your acerbic insights. Holidays are necessary and good, but they come at an intellectual cost
Thanks Anne!
A weird honeymoon externality
Ha!
I don't know what is behind successive NZ govts strict adherence to debt containment, albeit dropped for a time during Covid. But readers should understand that low debt does not equal low interest rates (NZ currently!) You can also have high debt and high rates (Brazil - be careful what you wish for?) zero net debt and relatively high rates (Norway, because the central bank wants it that way) extremely high debt and low rates (Japan). The two are simply not coupled the way it might sound.
Excellent intro to macro, Duane. Honestly, where is Whiteboard Friday featuring Geoff Simmons when you need it? Everyone falls for the fallacy that national accounts are just like household accounts. Wasn’t it M Thatcher who is responsible for that shibboleth? It has outlasted her.
Unfortunately the crazed spawn of Thatcher have managed the dubious achievement of both wrecking UK public services and the commercial economy. This should be a salutary lesson for anyone who gives credence to ACT policies.
NewstalkZB setting the political agenda. No surprises there. Just BAU. And when they are taken to task to the (toothless) BSA, it turns out they don't employ journalists as their mouth pieces, they have opinionists on the payroll.
https://open.substack.com/pub/badnewsletter/p/the-fifth-columnists?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=bth19
Still waiting for that 'why I still have hope' article Bernard... At the moment it feels very sinking ship.
Fair point. Taking some time over the next few weeks to think and rest. Want to gather my strength ahead of the election campaign.
Cheers
Oh no, I don't mean I'm literally 'still waiting' like I'm wondering what TF you do all day. More I'm hoping that at some point you get a chance to give me reason to stop fantasizing about my escape as soon as my kids finish high school.... Prob seems like a post-election kind of a thing...we'll REALLY need it then!
I think it’s more of a pre-election thing. Watch this space.
Hi Bernard,
I have been enjoying your work for a while now. Often however, I can't help but feel that the rate of climate change is rather making the discussions meaningless. Your policy recommendations as good as they are, only make sense if IPCC modelling is accurate. The problem as I see it, is that the IPCC is essentially a conservative voice based on the consensus of science and policy makers.
It's models only take into account fast feedbacks (such as cloud cover - which has it's own problems) and ignores slow feedbacks. It is looking like these are not anywhere as slow as once thought, with arctic melt, albedo changes, permafrost breakdown, rainforest emissions (I could go on) happening at rates that make the likely 2100 temperatures will eclipse RPC 8.5.
Putting the models to one side, and looking at Paleoclimate data, - see: James Hansen et al. in his latest paper (https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.04474) we've already blown way past 1.5°C. Based on emissions to date, we are heading for an equilibrium temperature of +7 to +10°C. And at timescales that will certainly impact our children and grandchildren.
I can't help but feel that our best option now is to think about the radical deep adaption that we will need to save at least some of what this human civilisation has created.
Thanks John. What would deep adaption look like.
I live in a rural area where local farmers have been outbid for productive farms by international companies milking the ETS for all it's worth. It has turned high quality, productive sheep and beef farmland into pine forest. We - and the district - have been gutted.
Our rural service towns depend on farmers' custom. Already several agriculture-related businesses which employ numerous staff have gone to the wall. More are likely to follow.
Sheep numbers are now the lowest they've been in recent history. The hill country grows lambs which are sold for export or for fattening elsewhere. Lambing is designed to work around the climate. They are born in July or August and are off the farm in December when the east coast hill country starts to dry out. They use no irrigation. They work with what is available and fertiliser use is minimal. Our farms here win environmental awards.
The recent announcement that local councils can determine via resource consents which land can or can't go into forestry is very welcome. Labour has been dilatory in stemming the tide of farm sales to foreign organisations. Despite what forestry interests tell everyone, once a farm is in forestry it requires minimal work and contractors are brought in from outside the district to trim the trees. There are almost no employment opportunities for locals.
Farmers have not sat on their hands. They have planted thousands and thousands of native trees and some exotics and retired a lot of farmland. A smaller proportion of farmland is now used as paddocks. The focus is on high-quality meat-producing sheep which have a smaller environmental footprint than previously.
He waka eke noa (which included government negotiators) came up with a deal which everyone had agreed to - even the more conservative elements.
The government ignored the hard work by their own officials on He waka eke noa and decided that the huge plantings of native and exotic trees on each farm couldn't be measured for carbon sequestering purposes and would not be discounted from what farmers had to pay. This is nonsense. A skilled GIS operator could verify the land involved easily.
So everything fell apart. Alarm bells are sounding within National - the traditional home of farmers - as many of them are heading in Act's direction.
Robert, I think they agree with Act's adverts, which are strategically good, as well as topical/current and 'populist' (e.g. 3 strikes crime reform in the context of increases in bold smash& grab robberies by youth offenders).
Who is going to reveal the wolf in sheep's clothing (Seymour) to NZers?
I see David Seymour as a vicious wolf, and clearly/obviously a vicious wolf.
I believe that most people who support Act's policies are also vicious wolves.
For ages I've been aware of ActionStation petitions and I knew not what else.. Recently I signed up for a webinar called Economics for the People. It was nearly 2 hours long and superb. The speakers were Matt Scobie from UC who took as his starting point the pre-contact Maori economy and on to today, Jane Kelsey who is stunning on the 80's and 90's and hence where we find ourselves today and lastly Max Harris who spoke mostly about shifting our neoliberal tax straightjacket. Kassie Hartendorp hosted it and about a thousand people turned up
.Because it is action focused it follows on well from what Bernard enlightens us about on the Kaka. You probably all know this But I'm paying more attention now. More lively than getting despondent about the polly parties. If you can access the webinar recording somewhere it is a good dose of motivation.