Dawn chorus: Could he have been stopped?

Christchurch mosque attacker was treated in hospital months beforehand after accidental shooting, but doctors did not have to report it to Police, so didn't; Royal Commission report due

TLDR: Today will be dominated by the detail and recommendations from the 800 page report of the Royal Commission into last year’s Christchurch mosque attacks, which is due out at 2pm after journalists read it during a four-hour lockup in Parliament.

But one tragic detail emerged this morning via a Stuff report. The gunman was treated for shrapnel wounds to his face in the months before the attacks at a Dunedin hospital after an accidental discharge of his gun at his home, but doctors did not report it to police. They also didn’t report his problems with steroid use. Mandatory reporting to Police of gun accidents is expected to be recommended.

The Commission is also expected to recommend the creation of a new national security agency, reforms to hate speech and further tightening of gun laws. PM Jacinda Ardern said last night a minister for coordinating the response to the report would be appointed.

In politics, the first opinion poll after the election showed Labour polling almost 30 percentage points ahead of National, with Christopher Luxon making an appearance in the preferred PM poll as Judith Collins’ rating fell eight points to 12%.

In our economy, the Ports of Auckland is bringing in more staff to deal with a massive backlog and the Government looks set to change the law to allow security guards to keep their pay and conditions when being transferred from one contractor to the next.

Overseas, overnight, talks between Britain and the EU remain deadlocked with less than 48 hours before it is too late to avoid the UK crashing out of the EU without a trade deal.

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In our political economy

1 NEWS @1NewsNZ

Party support in today’s 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll: Labour Party: 53% National Party: 25% ACT: 8% Green Party: 8% New Zealand First: 2% Māori Party: 2% Don’t know: 3% Refused: 5% tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-z…

1 NEWS @1NewsNZ

Preferred Prime Minister: Jacinda Ardern: 58% (up 3% since October 15 poll) Judith Collins: 12% (down 8%) David Seymour: 4% (up 1%) Christopher Luxon: 2% (up 2%) Winston Peters: 1% (no change) Sir John Key: 1% Don’t know: 13% Refused: 2% tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-z…

nzherald @nzherald

Stuck at sea: Photo shows queue of cargo ships in Hauraki Gulf waiting to dock nzherald.co.nz/nz/ports-of-au…

RNZ News @rnz_news

Security guards assured employment protection with changes to law

rnz.co.nzSecurity guards assured employment protection with changes to lawThousands of security guards will receive better protection of their pay and conditions, with the government moving to make changes to existing employment laws.

Thomas Coughlan @coughlthom

$1 of every $20 of new spending in budget 2020 went to subsidies for the film industry. Treasury is worried that the new LOTR series will test the uncapped scheme and looked at ways of bending public finance rules to account for it. 1/

stuff.co.nzTaxpayer grants to Lord of the Rings represent ‘significant fiscal risk’ to Government financesTreasury warned against the enormous cost of Government grants to Hollywood as $1 of every $20 in Budget 2020 went on film subsidies

In the global political economy

BBC Politics @BBCPolitics

Pound sinks as UK-EU trade talks enter 'critical stage'

bbc.inPound sinks as UK-EU trade talks enter ‘critical stage’Sterling at a six week low against the euro amid worries at the prospect of a no-deal Brexit.

Simon Rabinovitch @S_Rabinovitch

Cunning sleight of hand from China's statisticians: they waited until @Brad_Setser took a leave of absence from blogging & tweeting to release their trade surplus for November, an all-time record at $75bn.

Financial Review @FinancialReview

S&P Global Ratings has downgraded both NSW and Victoria’s credit ratings based on a weaker fiscal outlook.

bit.lyVictoria, NSW lose AAA credit rating: S&PS&P Global Ratings has slashed Victoria’s credit rating to AA from AAA based on weaker fiscal outlook.

Reuters @Reuters

China November exports rise 21.1% year-on-year, imports up 4.5% year-on-year reut.rs/3gmfT0G

ANZ_Research @ANZ_Research

ANZ Australian Job Ads rose 27% over Oct and Nov as Victoria reopened, and both are on track to match or exceed pre-COVID levels by year-end. This suggests significant employment gains into early-2021 but the lagged recovery in full-time work is a concern. #ausecon @cfbirch

Charts of the day

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

There's still a huge housing shortage. Weird to hear some worry about overbuild. FYI from ASB"s Jane Turner. 'The risk is, come 2022/23, if pop'n growth does not recover fast enough, will NZ be set for a rather uncomfortable correction in house prices & construction?'

Peterson Institute @PIIE

All of the world’s advanced economies rely more on taxes than spending to reduce inequality. The US has the least progressive tax system but spends near the average amount on social programs. Learn about economic inequality & how governments can fix it: piie.com/microsites/how…

Useful reports

Jenée Tibshraeny @JeneeTibshraeny

Excellent report by the @SalvationArmyNZ. "It is likely that without substantial changes in housing policy New Zealand will experience the equivalent of the intergenerational scarring, which resulted from the labour market reforms in the 1980s."

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

Very useful backgrounder on the issues with payments fintech via this speech from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe @RBAInfo Might help Labour regulate card fees here. Also detail on Buy-Now-Pay-Later schemes

rba.gov.auInnovation and Regulation in the Australian Payments System | SpeechesSpeech delivered by Philip Lowe, Governor, to the Australian Payments Network, Online

RNZ News @rnz_news

Nitrogen map reveals excessive levels in nine of 15 regions

rnz.co.nzNitrogen map reveals excessive levels in nine of 15 regionsNitrogen can hide no longer - a new interactive map has been launched today to show which rivers, lakes and estuaries are under pressure from agriculture.

Coming up…

Today - 10.45 am - Stats NZ to release Housing in Aotearoa: 2020 report.

Today - 10.45 am Stats NZ releases national population projections: 2020(base)–2073

Today - 2pm - Release of the redacted report from Royal Commission of Inquiry into the Terrorist Attack on Christchurch Mosques

Today 2pm - Parliamentary Question time

Today - Maiden speeches in Parliament
4pm Chris Baillie (Act list)
4.15pm Nicole McKee (Act list)
4.30pm Ricardo Menendez-March (Green Party list)
4.45pm Teanau Tuiono (Green Party list)
5pm Tracey McLellan (Labour, Port Hills)
5.15pm Anna Lorck (Labour, Tukituki)
5.30pm Ayesha Verrall (Labour list)

Dec 9 - Parliament rises for 2020, followed by Press Gallery Party (woohoo!).

Dec 16 - Treasury releases its Half Yearly Fiscal and Economic Update (a full week to recover)

Dec 17 - Stats NZ publishes Sept qtr GDP

Dec 22 - Final cabinet meeting of 2020

Feb 1 - The Climate Change Commission will release its first draft of the national carbon budget under the Zero Carbon Act.

Ngā Mihi

Bernard

PS Thanks to Amanda Main for her pic today.

PPS: Some fun things

⚫️Tracey Eva Edwards 3.5% #IAmEuropean #BLM ⚫️ @wemoonwarrior

Brexit Yep! The World is laughing at us Political Cartoons by @deAdder

EmiratesTeamNZ @EmiratesTeamNZ

92kph might not be that fast in a car, but on the water it’s #crazyfast #incrazywebelieve #ICWB #toyotanz #etnz

bit.lyCrazy Fast | Americas CupDo you know how fast the Emirates Team New Zealand boat actually goes? Here’s a quick explainer on just how crazy fast this team gets on the water. #incrazyw...

Oliver Hartwich @oliverhartwich

Bugger, where can we have our confidential chats with politicians when we want to be seen?

nzherald.co.nzAstoria, part of Wellington’s fabric since before MMP, to close this month - NZ HeraldLong-running cafe famous for political gossip will close permanently this month.