PM says hopes not to use lockdowns 'forever', but Skegg admits elimination strategy means more lockdowns likely next year because our contact tracing can't keep up with Delta
I'm interested in what covid does to a vaccinated population in winter. We'll have more data on that after the northern hemisphere winter. Even in summer Israel's data isn't that great. Think govt should defo prepare for the endemic option, but don't think it's set in stone just yet.
Delta, with its increased infectivity and decreased vaccine effectiveness at preventing transmission, means that we aren't going to achieve herd immunity at any level of vaccination, at least not until there's a new formulation to the vaccine. I did some back of the envelope calculations on this back in July and it was rather depressing. We do need to have some hard conversations about what to do when there's a high level of vaccination, although we are still doing the right thing right now. We need to keep an eye on what's happening with the rest of the world - many countries started easing restrictions with vaccination figures around 60% and are now facing major outbreaks.
Good point on opening from 60%. It’s too early. Sadly though, Iceland got to 97% for women and 90% for men and opened up slightly. Still having waves of infections and lots of hospitalisation. A death on Thursday. We need to get that rate up as high as possible. Cheers Bernard
I'm interested in what covid does to a vaccinated population in winter. We'll have more data on that after the northern hemisphere winter. Even in summer Israel's data isn't that great. Think govt should defo prepare for the endemic option, but don't think it's set in stone just yet.
Delta, with its increased infectivity and decreased vaccine effectiveness at preventing transmission, means that we aren't going to achieve herd immunity at any level of vaccination, at least not until there's a new formulation to the vaccine. I did some back of the envelope calculations on this back in July and it was rather depressing. We do need to have some hard conversations about what to do when there's a high level of vaccination, although we are still doing the right thing right now. We need to keep an eye on what's happening with the rest of the world - many countries started easing restrictions with vaccination figures around 60% and are now facing major outbreaks.
Good point on opening from 60%. It’s too early. Sadly though, Iceland got to 97% for women and 90% for men and opened up slightly. Still having waves of infections and lots of hospitalisation. A death on Thursday. We need to get that rate up as high as possible. Cheers Bernard