Cathrine Dyer & Bernard Hickey chat about the week's big climate news, including the coalition government's removal of farming from the ETS and its aggressive restarting of oil and gas drilling
I think the key question should be, is there an investor foul hardy enough to take a long term gas contract? As I understand it output is only going to fall from those fields, & cheap renewables are likely about to flood the market. Would such an investment in gas bring a good return?
I think the truth of it, Chris, is that we are going to burn or use every bit of fossil fuels we can get our hands on. Cheap renewables don't change that. The EVs, the panels, the wind farms, all of it is built on the back of fossil fuels. Whether or not it's profitable as an investment is another question, but I'm sure they'll find someone willing to try.
It's just so in the opposite direction than the one we need be going. We need hard slaps to the face, and solid guardrails on policy. The exploration ban is at least a guardrail, and it locks in a production profile that NZ then has to reckon with. With a reopening NZ can continue to engage in wishful thinking. This seems to be happening globally, see point 6. Dispiriting.
However, Treasury is still failing to account for the cost of these ‘constructive obligations’ in the Government’s financial statements. This situation allows a substantial obligation on taxpayers to grow in the dark, while climate policy that might have reduced it is being axed in broad daylight. Worse, the purely temporary savings that come from axing climate policies are being counted... toward the budget needed for tax cuts.
I can't help but see this as ministers proudly flaunting their status as dinosaurs, while apparently remaining unaware of the ultimate fate of dinosaurs.
What is going on in the heads of these politicians? Do they just not understand the physical realities of climate change and it’s impacts? Do they think they will be able to escape its effects with their wealth and privilege? Do they not have children and grandchildren? Do they not care for humans elsewhere in the world? Do they not understand that the economy is grounded in biological resources?? Are they just in the job as a step on the career ladder? Have they been duped by corporate misinformation?
This gas transition argument from the likes of Mr 6% Jones ignores alternatives that, if followed, would quickly end any dependence on gas (or coal) for electricity production.
An alternative championed by economist Geoff Bertram is to (a) massively increase domestic roof wind and roof top solar, (b) introduce a better scheme for selling electricity locally from those sources, (c) re-nationalise our hydro schemes and run them on an integrated basis to provide the battery back-up for the domestic/small scale wind and solar generation, (d) re-introduce the bulk tariff electricity pricing system used by ECNZ (which is, for each large generator, actual cost of generation plus a margin for the transmission lines, not the current system of marginal pricing which just costs consumers more than otherwise would be the case).
(Geoff Bertram's early energy economics experience was providing analysis and papers on the (economic) flaws of Think Big for the Coalition for Open Government. He has also documented the economic rent seeking system of our current electricity market and of the gentailers.)
All of that is likely to work really well most of the time. However we would still need a solution to the dry year problem, and I would think it’s unlikely in even a good year our existing hydro could cover the gap when we have multiple days of bad solar production (as the batteries will cover the short term, hourly ish, fluctuations).
I think the answer is all of the above and covert most our gas electrical generation to be available for many years to come as generator of last resort. That would meaning using much less gas for electricity that the status quo but providing a mechanism to pay the generators to keep the plants available.
My guess is that this govt is betting that when the sh*t hits the fan around our climate obligations they can blame the left. It was labour who negotiated the trade agreements, etc. Unfortuantely voters seem to have very short memories.
I think they do, but they also think that 'important people' can always buy themselves out of trouble. However, for a politician to believe themself to be an 'important person' in that sense is delusional. The true 'Bond-villain' knows no loyalty, and always throws the henchman under the bus when it suits their convenience.
It’s grim eh. And the sad rhetoric online from many who support this Govt is that people who DO believe in climate change need to be “fact checked”… I know it’s a small subsection of society but god it’s dark. I struggle to see how we’re going to get out of this if we can’t turn the views of those people somehow. What will it take? Cyclone Gabrielle wasn’t enough for some…
That subsection of the public or the Govt? That subsection of the public seem genuinely brainwashed about what constitutes “evidence”. The Govt on the other hand just seem to ignore evidence completely (despite, if I recall correctly, having coalition agreements or a policy blueprint that says they will be “evidence based”), or are captured by industry lobbyists. Surely they aren’t also brainwashed about what constitutes evidence??
I was referring to elements of the current Govt but it could just as easily apply to some of the public. I think the likes of Shane Jones understand evidence, he just chooses to ignore it, in part, because of the fat donations his party has received from certain sectors..
I think the key question should be, is there an investor foul hardy enough to take a long term gas contract? As I understand it output is only going to fall from those fields, & cheap renewables are likely about to flood the market. Would such an investment in gas bring a good return?
I think the truth of it, Chris, is that we are going to burn or use every bit of fossil fuels we can get our hands on. Cheap renewables don't change that. The EVs, the panels, the wind farms, all of it is built on the back of fossil fuels. Whether or not it's profitable as an investment is another question, but I'm sure they'll find someone willing to try.
It's just so in the opposite direction than the one we need be going. We need hard slaps to the face, and solid guardrails on policy. The exploration ban is at least a guardrail, and it locks in a production profile that NZ then has to reckon with. With a reopening NZ can continue to engage in wishful thinking. This seems to be happening globally, see point 6. Dispiriting.
This is a damning statement:
However, Treasury is still failing to account for the cost of these ‘constructive obligations’ in the Government’s financial statements. This situation allows a substantial obligation on taxpayers to grow in the dark, while climate policy that might have reduced it is being axed in broad daylight. Worse, the purely temporary savings that come from axing climate policies are being counted... toward the budget needed for tax cuts.
This is bonkers!
I can't help but see this as ministers proudly flaunting their status as dinosaurs, while apparently remaining unaware of the ultimate fate of dinosaurs.
Well put, Dave!!
Shane Jones, apparently, doesn't or won't read...this, for example, "Solar Power’s Giants Are Providing More Energy Than Big Oil" https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-06-13/solar-power-s-giants-are-providing-more-energy-than-big-oil?srnd=opinion&sref=3IZkDKQO
Wilful ignorance is toxic to wise and constructive governing and there's way too, too much of it in NZ's current ruling coalition.
What is going on in the heads of these politicians? Do they just not understand the physical realities of climate change and it’s impacts? Do they think they will be able to escape its effects with their wealth and privilege? Do they not have children and grandchildren? Do they not care for humans elsewhere in the world? Do they not understand that the economy is grounded in biological resources?? Are they just in the job as a step on the career ladder? Have they been duped by corporate misinformation?
Or is it just all too hard for them
Great podcast by the way - thanks both!
Shane Jones, Minister of Mine, Mine all Mining.
This gas transition argument from the likes of Mr 6% Jones ignores alternatives that, if followed, would quickly end any dependence on gas (or coal) for electricity production.
An alternative championed by economist Geoff Bertram is to (a) massively increase domestic roof wind and roof top solar, (b) introduce a better scheme for selling electricity locally from those sources, (c) re-nationalise our hydro schemes and run them on an integrated basis to provide the battery back-up for the domestic/small scale wind and solar generation, (d) re-introduce the bulk tariff electricity pricing system used by ECNZ (which is, for each large generator, actual cost of generation plus a margin for the transmission lines, not the current system of marginal pricing which just costs consumers more than otherwise would be the case).
(Geoff Bertram's early energy economics experience was providing analysis and papers on the (economic) flaws of Think Big for the Coalition for Open Government. He has also documented the economic rent seeking system of our current electricity market and of the gentailers.)
All of that is likely to work really well most of the time. However we would still need a solution to the dry year problem, and I would think it’s unlikely in even a good year our existing hydro could cover the gap when we have multiple days of bad solar production (as the batteries will cover the short term, hourly ish, fluctuations).
I think the answer is all of the above and covert most our gas electrical generation to be available for many years to come as generator of last resort. That would meaning using much less gas for electricity that the status quo but providing a mechanism to pay the generators to keep the plants available.
My guess is that this govt is betting that when the sh*t hits the fan around our climate obligations they can blame the left. It was labour who negotiated the trade agreements, etc. Unfortuantely voters seem to have very short memories.
Do the coalition actually believe that climate change is real. I suspect that they don't
It’s seems clear at least some don’t believe it. Or just don’t care
I think they do, but they also think that 'important people' can always buy themselves out of trouble. However, for a politician to believe themself to be an 'important person' in that sense is delusional. The true 'Bond-villain' knows no loyalty, and always throws the henchman under the bus when it suits their convenience.
This is so utterly depressing to read.
It’s grim eh. And the sad rhetoric online from many who support this Govt is that people who DO believe in climate change need to be “fact checked”… I know it’s a small subsection of society but god it’s dark. I struggle to see how we’re going to get out of this if we can’t turn the views of those people somehow. What will it take? Cyclone Gabrielle wasn’t enough for some…
It's as if they don't give a shit about evidence...
That subsection of the public or the Govt? That subsection of the public seem genuinely brainwashed about what constitutes “evidence”. The Govt on the other hand just seem to ignore evidence completely (despite, if I recall correctly, having coalition agreements or a policy blueprint that says they will be “evidence based”), or are captured by industry lobbyists. Surely they aren’t also brainwashed about what constitutes evidence??
I was referring to elements of the current Govt but it could just as easily apply to some of the public. I think the likes of Shane Jones understand evidence, he just chooses to ignore it, in part, because of the fat donations his party has received from certain sectors..
Though actually maybe some of the ACT and NZ First MPs are.
The stupidity & short-sightedness is bewildering.
A post by Paul McGill (Pāmu) on LinkedIn has an interesting proposal re the pastoral group. Thoughts, anyone?
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-mcgill-8658881b_food-for-thought-nz-agricultures-way-forward-activity-7207851085019947009-X-H7