Budget 2022 to cement in low-investment, low-debt and tax-cut-driven approach to Govt post-Covid as Labour and Greens give up on 'Build Back Better' in the face of weak polling
Thanks for this morning's Kaka. Better content than The Spinoff, with their "every budget cover since 2002 ranked". Looking forward to Budget, hoping for no more tax changes for a while (okay, maybe some movement in income threshholds). We're getting to grips with everything that has changed already as we file 2022 EOY.
Please open it up to all Bernard. The myth that "Government should budget like a household" is wrong and pernicious especially to future generations. The rich will continue to get richer with untaxed capital gains as usual. I am in that bracket and would "take a haircut" for the good of the future but nobody else I know will. "TAX CUTS DONT HEAL". A good read is by two Nobel prize winners from Harvard/MIT entitled "Good economics for hard times". I doubt whether National or Act will read it. Labour is so desperate to stay in power, which is increasingly unlikely, that they have lost any courage. Busy day for you Bernard, Look forward to your comments this evening. Keep your sane " voice in the wilderness" going as it is all we have apart from grossly conflicted Bank economists. I will be long gone but the cockroaches will inherit the destroyed planet and may do better over a few million years of evolution than "Mankind" has.
The only hope for New Zealand to overcome destruction by Tweedledum Labour and Tweedledee National is for a Renters United party whose candidates for Parliament must not own their family home nor any other real estate, nor be the beneficiaries of any trust, and be required to resign their seats if they do become propertied.
I just finished reading yet another article on what to do about poverty in Canada, after reading John Campbell's excellent article on poverty in NZ. There are so many great solutions. But the empirical evidence is clear that government is deeply committed to maintaining the status quo. Poverty reduction or elimination is anathema to government. Indeed, perhaps the most crucial role of government is to produce, maintain, and increase inequality. No amount of common sense or more reports will change that.
So what can we do about government oppression? Somehow we have to dispel the lies that support the ideology of "fiscal responsibility" and "keeping a lid on debt". How is it possible that debt is paramount over people's lives? We are being duped by a debt scam. Any shortage of money is imposed. At any time the gov can fund anything it wants to, no debt involved. When will society understand that and throw off the chains?
From Matt Stoller's Big substack (monopoly focus) on the USA baby formula issue
It is so frustrating and sad that we cant break thru the economic illiteracy about governments finances not being like a household that drives these decisions. The results of both this false narrative and the political games being played with it are not going to be pretty. I have no confidence in either National or Labour as managers of the economy, neither have any idea how the economy works, and the Civil Service, Treasury, and the RB are religiously against any attempt to alter the status quo.
Yes please - open it up - I'd love to share this more widely. I don't think many understand the implications of managing for 'low debt'. I certainly didn't until I started reading your analysis.
Thanks so much for this excellent analysis Bernard. Please, please, please open it up for the public. I especially appreciate your insights into the new debt ceiling and how Labour is not drawing attention to how far below that ceiling we actually are. The hopes we had for a reversal of over-conservative management when they decided to net off all the assets for net debt (as they always should have) has come to naught.
I also appreciate your attention to the taxation of real estate. I would hope we can have a real debate comparing your land tax idea with the FER net equity approach. If the taxation of housing is not dealt decisively with we are just setting up as you suggest for the next cycle of speculation
CPAG is very much looking forward to your presentation tomorrow at the budget breakfast (500+ registrations so far). For poor children the situation is more dire than the policy makers in Wellington appear to understand. The lost opportunity to reform WFF over the past 5 years is hard to forgive. We are facing yet another round of consultation with MSD and IR with 'options' promised by the end of the year! In the meantime low income families balance sheets are shredded. Our submission on WFF is here:
Here is our latest thinking on the child poverty reduction framework that has failed to deliver. This is released today:
Many thanks for all the fantastic work you do as our foremost economic commentator.
Well Bernard old chap, this morning’s Kaka was a depressing listen. Chin up mate - in a decade or so Chloe Swarbrick will lead a Millenial renters revolt against the Boomers. Demographics look to be the only way this current situation will change. Otherwise I’m advising my kids to head about 3 hours flight West.
Well said Barry
For me personally, that is the most disappointing thing - COVID gave an opportunity to Build Back Better. It was something my local council talked about a lot at the start too, as well as the Government. But within a wee while, everyone was "back to normal" "business as usual". It's just so disappointing. Noone seems to be interested in how we could do better - it's not even something people want to talk about.
Open the article up please. Looking forward to your budget analysis.
Your observations on the "BAU budget" are brutal. Brutally honest and accurate. Writing that is worth making as widely available as possible.
Just read Build back no Better. Another great analysis, in my opinion.!
My comment is that we have misinformation /disinformation from conspiracists, and Toxic Mediocrity from our Government.
A question for the Min of Fin.: what hope for might offer to citizens of all ages who long for a budget in 2023 that presents fit for purpose transformational policies, rather than more centrist vote pandering mediocrity ?
Yes please open it up, this is the conversation we should all be having. Why isn’t the economy run for the good of all? More of our best young minds departing. More of our families raising children in poverty without hope. We need to invest in a future for our children and grandchildren in Aotearoa or get used to living in a country that has effectively become an understaffed retirement village inside a slum.
Open it up, or perhaps some of the special big interest ones like budget. But my vote would be to not open up the comments. I would dread the onslaught of jibber jabber e.g. stuff.co.nz. More admin for you unfortunately.