Your analysis of housing unaffordability and how the government is undermining any way it could address it (no wealth tax, avoiding a fall in house prices, etc) seems on the money. So, WHY do you think they are doing this? They don't appear to be cynical and they're not stupid. Is it simply politically untenable to do what's needed? Aren…
Your analysis of housing unaffordability and how the government is undermining any way it could address it (no wealth tax, avoiding a fall in house prices, etc) seems on the money. So, WHY do you think they are doing this? They don't appear to be cynical and they're not stupid. Is it simply politically untenable to do what's needed? Aren't they just snookered by National? If so, and assuming they would like to solve this, what would be a good POLITICAL strategy?
It would be good to hear Bernard's thoughts but mine are that I think it's a result of Personality Politics in democratic countries taking over. Politicians are Egoists (I'm talking about all political sides here), they love that they have a "mandate" so spend huge amounts of time pandering to the people that voted them in (see $$ spent on Comms/PR etc). They are protecting their own self-interest. The electorate need to accept that Politicians need to make decisions for the good of most people and back them to do that rather than automatically point the finger anytime they don't like it personally. Until that sort of mindset comes to the fore (and I think this particular forum includes many proponents of this thinking) then they will just carry on looking after themselves and everything will remain politically untenable.
Thanks Glen. I don't think they're cynical or stupid. They are snookered by their own median-voter-seeking behaviour, and the democratic deficit of 800k young renters not voting. They can always convince themselves that even if they can't change the status quo because median voters don't want that, they will be kinder and/or more competent managers of the status quo.
I wouldn't pretend to be a political strategist. But the bush politician in me says offering policies via a party willing to go both ways and win a chunk of voters >5% and enough to decide who's in govt has the best chance of nudging change along.
My view is ultimately there needs to be a political settlement across Labour and National to break expectations of house prices doubling every 10 years with a shared commitment to achieve some housing affordability aims and creating some credible and independently managed tools to get there.
I'm going to write this up over the next week or so, but I'll throw the bare bones out now:
A 30 before 30 policy whereby:
National and Labour commit to an Affordable Housing and Climate Infrastructure Bill that;
Creates an independent agency combining Kainga Ora, Waka Kotahi, the Climate Commission and the Infrastructure Commission that;
Has the power and the funds to build whatever number of affordable medium density homes needed;
That would achieve rents and rent-to-own housing costs of no more than 30% of the disposable living full time wage by 2030;
With anyone under the age of 30 when covid came first in line for these affordable flats;
With this new agency funded by a 0.3% annual tax on the value of residential-zoned land;
With a 3% annual tax on the value of residential-zoned land without houses on it;
And a 30% value capture uplift rate on rezoned land made more valuable by public investment;
With this $5b-plus a year of revenue being shared 70-30 with councils to achieve that 30% housing cost by 2030;
Mostly to service public debt issued by the new agency and councils; along with;
achieving transport and housing emissions reductions to levels that are 30% of 2020 levels by 2030; with the accountability borne by Agency Governors and councils 'punishable' with revenue cuts if they don't meet their emissions and housing targets.
Your analysis of housing unaffordability and how the government is undermining any way it could address it (no wealth tax, avoiding a fall in house prices, etc) seems on the money. So, WHY do you think they are doing this? They don't appear to be cynical and they're not stupid. Is it simply politically untenable to do what's needed? Aren't they just snookered by National? If so, and assuming they would like to solve this, what would be a good POLITICAL strategy?
It would be good to hear Bernard's thoughts but mine are that I think it's a result of Personality Politics in democratic countries taking over. Politicians are Egoists (I'm talking about all political sides here), they love that they have a "mandate" so spend huge amounts of time pandering to the people that voted them in (see $$ spent on Comms/PR etc). They are protecting their own self-interest. The electorate need to accept that Politicians need to make decisions for the good of most people and back them to do that rather than automatically point the finger anytime they don't like it personally. Until that sort of mindset comes to the fore (and I think this particular forum includes many proponents of this thinking) then they will just carry on looking after themselves and everything will remain politically untenable.
Thanks Glen. I don't think they're cynical or stupid. They are snookered by their own median-voter-seeking behaviour, and the democratic deficit of 800k young renters not voting. They can always convince themselves that even if they can't change the status quo because median voters don't want that, they will be kinder and/or more competent managers of the status quo.
I wouldn't pretend to be a political strategist. But the bush politician in me says offering policies via a party willing to go both ways and win a chunk of voters >5% and enough to decide who's in govt has the best chance of nudging change along.
My view is ultimately there needs to be a political settlement across Labour and National to break expectations of house prices doubling every 10 years with a shared commitment to achieve some housing affordability aims and creating some credible and independently managed tools to get there.
I'm going to write this up over the next week or so, but I'll throw the bare bones out now:
A 30 before 30 policy whereby:
National and Labour commit to an Affordable Housing and Climate Infrastructure Bill that;
Creates an independent agency combining Kainga Ora, Waka Kotahi, the Climate Commission and the Infrastructure Commission that;
Has the power and the funds to build whatever number of affordable medium density homes needed;
That would achieve rents and rent-to-own housing costs of no more than 30% of the disposable living full time wage by 2030;
With anyone under the age of 30 when covid came first in line for these affordable flats;
With this new agency funded by a 0.3% annual tax on the value of residential-zoned land;
With a 3% annual tax on the value of residential-zoned land without houses on it;
And a 30% value capture uplift rate on rezoned land made more valuable by public investment;
With this $5b-plus a year of revenue being shared 70-30 with councils to achieve that 30% housing cost by 2030;
Mostly to service public debt issued by the new agency and councils; along with;
achieving transport and housing emissions reductions to levels that are 30% of 2020 levels by 2030; with the accountability borne by Agency Governors and councils 'punishable' with revenue cuts if they don't meet their emissions and housing targets.