Budget hyped as proof of 'fiscal vandalism' has no real surprises, no blowout of deficits or debt & few tax cut details; Govt's plan is 'fiscally neutral', but not distributionally neutral
Willis has one goal: get economic conditions to a point where the Government has to do nothing. Meanwhile, the world is, and has, moved on from the last 30 years of stablility.
Thanks for your worlk this year! Not sure if it is your first Xmas/NY in the island, but as advice, do everything outside (groceries, going to beach, etc) before 10 am of after 6 pm. 2 hrs either side of the high tide shelly beach is blissfully "empty" compared with all other ones, and feel free to come over the bikebox (next to the Waiheke Resources Trust) for any bycicle needs you may have, (we are not a a bussines, and we have all of the tools to help you to fix your bike). Have a Merry Xmas!
Dec 20, 2023Liked by Bernard Hickey, Cathrine Dyer
Merry Christmas Bernard, Lynn and Cathrine. It's wonderful to have a little safe haven of people who give a shit about the future we're leaving for our tamariki. Great to hear the raucous dawn chorus in the background. Have a relaxing holiday everyone. I highly recommend a news blackout and a focus on reading fiction, listening to music and enjoying the outdoors. I'm making an early start by taking my kids to watch cricket at the Basin Reserve this afternoon.
Trussish unfunded inflationary tax cuts, deferred vital Infrastructure, dumping of decent global warming policies, dealing drugs to a vulnerable population re tobacco and vapes, changing the law to remove resource impact statement requirements for repeals. Any of these should justify questioning the Coalition's ability to govern.
The repeal of the smoking legislation is myopic and robbing addicts to give really just the wealthy tax cuts. Ditto re vaping as govt gets 15% of each deal, so there is more drug money. Nicola has probably learned not to mention how much is earned from this other form of smoking. Excuse this if you know it already.. It is a cracked record. The Labour amendment allows everything vape wise, thousands of non-specialist outlets as 'any retailer' can sell 3 flavours, the reduction of specialist ones to 600 will have very limited overall impact on sales, they're heavily marketed online, the main messaging from govt is that they're not harmless but OK and much better than tobacco, even though FDA won't approve vape use even as a means of getting off tobacco, the major US clinics, respiratory organisations, the asthma and resp foundation and GPs all state they are hazardous, school principals, parents say they are a nightmare, and we have a school children addiction epidemic, quite apart from all the other vapers who are unaware of clinical concerns, and there are no government quitting programmes. Small font in the amendment allows service stations, dairies et al to display them with colourful packaging, no health warnings.
Given the rigours of working within the constraints of Neoclassical economics enforced by the IMF on behalf of the vested interests of the finance sector, we can say that Robertson / Orr were something of a 'dream-team'. The above-mentioned 'fiscal neutrality' of the budget is evidence of this.
Distributional factors are not to be ignored though; Asset speculation will be enhanced even as the heat is removed from the 'economy of real goods and services', further exacerbating the two-speed economy.
Will National++ have the wits to direct more money towards the real economy to avoid deflation in a year or so?
Bernard is it against your journalistic ethics to call Willis a lier? I don’t know how else to put it - she claimed economic vandalism and hidden problems then produced evidence of neither. She claimed $7.5B of savings which is actually a tax increase, spend reallocation and benefit cuts plus some genuine savings by cancelling programmes. Where someone else will eventually wear a (probably greater cost).
So if not you, and MPs can’t call other MPs liers, then what is the best way to hold politicians to account? Or just assume that is a fore-lone hope...
The entire neoliberal line-up, the Nats, ACT and majority of Labour caucus, are a freak show. Their comprehension of the NZ monetary system is all backwards. Grant Robertson was not much better, issuing Tsy bonds for no good reason whatsoever --- *basic income but only for people who already have money in proportion to how much money they already have.* It refuelled recent inflation, to the relative detriment of low income workers.
Thanks, Bernard. Great work this year by the whole team (although I’m still struggling with the Hoon on the wrong day - can’t pour a gin at 5 pm on a Thursday!) and thank you for maintaining your calm, even-handed analysis even under the strain of commenting on an economically ignorant Minister of Finance. The Kaka community keeps me sane. Lots of
informed and thoughtful comment.
Happy Christmas and may you have lots of swims! I’ll give you a wave as I sail past.
Willis has one goal: get economic conditions to a point where the Government has to do nothing. Meanwhile, the world is, and has, moved on from the last 30 years of stablility.
The credentials of Grant Robertson alongside Nicola Willis have never been more stark and apparent
Merry Christmas Bernard and Lynn
Thanks for your worlk this year! Not sure if it is your first Xmas/NY in the island, but as advice, do everything outside (groceries, going to beach, etc) before 10 am of after 6 pm. 2 hrs either side of the high tide shelly beach is blissfully "empty" compared with all other ones, and feel free to come over the bikebox (next to the Waiheke Resources Trust) for any bycicle needs you may have, (we are not a a bussines, and we have all of the tools to help you to fix your bike). Have a Merry Xmas!
Merry Christmas Bernard, Lynn and Cathrine. It's wonderful to have a little safe haven of people who give a shit about the future we're leaving for our tamariki. Great to hear the raucous dawn chorus in the background. Have a relaxing holiday everyone. I highly recommend a news blackout and a focus on reading fiction, listening to music and enjoying the outdoors. I'm making an early start by taking my kids to watch cricket at the Basin Reserve this afternoon.
Trussish unfunded inflationary tax cuts, deferred vital Infrastructure, dumping of decent global warming policies, dealing drugs to a vulnerable population re tobacco and vapes, changing the law to remove resource impact statement requirements for repeals. Any of these should justify questioning the Coalition's ability to govern.
The repeal of the smoking legislation is myopic and robbing addicts to give really just the wealthy tax cuts. Ditto re vaping as govt gets 15% of each deal, so there is more drug money. Nicola has probably learned not to mention how much is earned from this other form of smoking. Excuse this if you know it already.. It is a cracked record. The Labour amendment allows everything vape wise, thousands of non-specialist outlets as 'any retailer' can sell 3 flavours, the reduction of specialist ones to 600 will have very limited overall impact on sales, they're heavily marketed online, the main messaging from govt is that they're not harmless but OK and much better than tobacco, even though FDA won't approve vape use even as a means of getting off tobacco, the major US clinics, respiratory organisations, the asthma and resp foundation and GPs all state they are hazardous, school principals, parents say they are a nightmare, and we have a school children addiction epidemic, quite apart from all the other vapers who are unaware of clinical concerns, and there are no government quitting programmes. Small font in the amendment allows service stations, dairies et al to display them with colourful packaging, no health warnings.
Given the rigours of working within the constraints of Neoclassical economics enforced by the IMF on behalf of the vested interests of the finance sector, we can say that Robertson / Orr were something of a 'dream-team'. The above-mentioned 'fiscal neutrality' of the budget is evidence of this.
Distributional factors are not to be ignored though; Asset speculation will be enhanced even as the heat is removed from the 'economy of real goods and services', further exacerbating the two-speed economy.
Will National++ have the wits to direct more money towards the real economy to avoid deflation in a year or so?
I very much doubt it.
Bernard is it against your journalistic ethics to call Willis a lier? I don’t know how else to put it - she claimed economic vandalism and hidden problems then produced evidence of neither. She claimed $7.5B of savings which is actually a tax increase, spend reallocation and benefit cuts plus some genuine savings by cancelling programmes. Where someone else will eventually wear a (probably greater cost).
So if not you, and MPs can’t call other MPs liers, then what is the best way to hold politicians to account? Or just assume that is a fore-lone hope...
So, all we really learnt was one party, person, couldn't comprehend a PREFU?
Someone will need to explain to me the distributional neutrality of GST.
Thank you Bernard and Lynn for keeping us informed.
Wishing you, and all at The Kākā, happy and safe holidaying.
Ngā mihi nui.
The gaslit middle
The entire neoliberal line-up, the Nats, ACT and majority of Labour caucus, are a freak show. Their comprehension of the NZ monetary system is all backwards. Grant Robertson was not much better, issuing Tsy bonds for no good reason whatsoever --- *basic income but only for people who already have money in proportion to how much money they already have.* It refuelled recent inflation, to the relative detriment of low income workers.
Bernard,
Thank you for keeping us informed, challenging our views and creating a great community here.
Wishing you and Lynn and The Kākā community a relaxing holiday. Fill up the mental and emotional batteries. It looks like we will need them in 2024.
Ngā mihi.
Thanks, Bernard. Great work this year by the whole team (although I’m still struggling with the Hoon on the wrong day - can’t pour a gin at 5 pm on a Thursday!) and thank you for maintaining your calm, even-handed analysis even under the strain of commenting on an economically ignorant Minister of Finance. The Kaka community keeps me sane. Lots of
informed and thoughtful comment.
Happy Christmas and may you have lots of swims! I’ll give you a wave as I sail past.