National to form Govt, possibly just with ACT, but probably with a NZ First deal; Details likely after specials; Big losses for Labour; Greens win 3 electorate seats; TPM wins 4 seats
Will NZ First be able to stop the completely unnecessary 'stealth tax' change in the super age from 65 to 67.
The Spinoff has an average of polls as these were just before yesterday. Looking at the results against the 95% margin of error for the polls the only result that was outside the 95% margin of error band is that The Greens are just outside the lower 95% bound. All the rest are within the margin of error band.
Sigh. I’m so depressed, despite there being some bright spots (extra GP & TPM electorate seats). I most fear the promised slash & burn of regulations (what are they really going to do re the RMA and our literally shitty water infrastructure?) and good public service programmes / public servants like those I work with to address energy hardship. And of course increasing our emissions massively, oil & gas exploration, and giving us farmers more grenades to blow up the climate & our international reputation.
Then there’s the small issue of having an inexperienced fundi Christian in the pocket of two politically-much-more-astute race baiters (one who also threw his lot in with the cookers) as the “leader” during a period of global environmental and political conflagration. Can’t think of anything bad happening and it was “time for a change”, right? 🙄
Where do you get your 20% increase for residential land from though? Because they’ll transfer all wealth into landowners’ pockets via tax cuts / bright line?
Thanks for including the analysis from Henry. I really appreciate his thoughts too, and so together with you it's a real bonus (on an otherwise gloomy day). Interesting to hear what he thought WP would be wanting.
I think we all lost last night. ☹️
Loved the background birdsong Bernard. Sounds like it's a magic new spot. Also, ka pai on your te reo Māori on The Hoon
Bernard, I can't reconcile your view on wasted votes with your view that we need meaningful change beyond ping-ponging between the two value-marketed mainstream tribes (parties) and their subsidiaries. Act allowing National to participate in more extreme "right" activity while off-loading accountability, so not to upset its more centrist voters. And likewise with Labour and the Greens, under the guise of an environmental vote.
If it is being more "strategic" (long term planning to achieve a goal) and less "wasteful" to only vote for a party/mp that you have a very high confidence in for getting into Parliament and actually implementing meaningful change... then doesn't that just reinforce the status quo you imply we need to change? In fact, in that case would anyone vote Greens? Or actually any party at all?
Doesn't a vote for a party that doesn't get in, essentially act as a vote of no confidence in the current system (which I think should be something more explicitly added to the voting system) and not skew the greater balance in the ping-pong - so is still participating and showing support for greater change?
Otherwise, why do you do your work? Knowing that the reality is, in the near future your voice will nost likely get drowned out by the noise of the system?
At least until the point individual suffering forces change - and at that point your years of hard work will be too late for avoiding the suffering (presumably what you are trying to do by informing us)?
The election result was essentially as expected - swing voters wanted a change from team red to team blue and no logical arguments and pointing to the facts was going to make a difference. And that is because votes for team red and team blue are emotional and or selfish and not based on a logical calculation that is evidence based and also wanting collective benefit.
Thanks for the birdsong - possibly the best thing about this morning. Keep up the great work! And a huge ‘well done’ to the Greens and Te Pati Māori - we are going to have a strong opposition :)
And a topic that desperately needs coverage is the immediate impact on territorial authorities who are right now preparing their Long Term Plans without any certainty about whether water infrastructure is ‘in’ or ‘out’.
Lovin' the backing chorus. Tūī meke 🐦⬛🐦⬛🐦⬛
Bernard, I love your work and I sense you are upset about the result. However I didn't vote National because I thought they were any good, just the opposite. I did so because Labour have been so poor, and I hope National are not as bad. I fully share your concern about housing prices, and the social effects that flow from that. I would much rather my house be worth its true lower value, and improve the chances of the younger generation to climb the ladder, as I was able to do. So I disagree with the gerontocracy vote theory.
Wonderful work Bernard, a time for reflection for all of us. It has been wearisome for me and I can only imagine how it is for you.
I agree with your point on TOP and that it was never likely to reach the threshold. We await the specials to see the final numbers and the December budget but in general terms it is Ford Ranger man in the driving seat asserting the same things and kicking the can down the road for another three years.
My initial thoughts is that the only way we can get real change is by having real conversations about all the issues that Bernard has been discussing such as fiscal redponsibility rules, that the government is not like a household, taxes. (I have an idea why dont we adopt same tax structure as Australia because while not perfect is less regressive and easier to sell). But the real work that needs to be done is to build real unity around race, indigenous rights proper push back against the dog whistling, standing proud. Remember it was National that started it all with Judith Collins desperation re the draft He puapua report and distortion of voice of Maori in water reforms and it wasnt taken seriously the original dog whistling because it was a continuation of what Chris Finlayson had started. But we should have learnt from Trumps sucess or any right wing group from history how poweful racism is in deflecting grievances from the real perpetuators of inequality to the most vulnerable. Everybody is conveniently forgetting how earlier this year Luxon was playing into anti Māori re road signs into someone i n the background tild him to pull back (and that is when the Nats started polling better). But benefit bashing is also a coded bashing of the undeserving poor).
I am hopeful that will be one of the lessons learnt is that need to be firmer and clearer in standing fir what you believe and dont worry about upsetting the landed gentry
The Labour Party lost because it stubbornly refused to read the room. It decided to do its best to look more conservative and cautious than National, ruled out any policy that could make our collective life better, including during the debates, so is there any wonder a large segment of our society didn't vote?
If Labour stood behind its name it would do the brave thing and offer an alternative to the status quo and challenge the neoliberal failed ideology we live under. Instead, Hipkins said govt books are no different to household budget so when times are tough we need to tighten the belt.
For a meaningful change in Labour there has to be a leadership change. Hipkins can't all of a sudden come out and say, you know what, actually I changed my mind, we do need a wealth/CGT/land or whatever tax. The press will crucify him if he did that, and I think he simply doesn't believe in it.
Look at the Greens & TPM and the passion in which they present & defend their policies. There won't be such passion in Labour until someone who truly believes in it will come along.
Labour lost this election; National did not win it.
Labour made it clear, those of us who were asking for simple things like diverse transport choices, housing for all, climate leadership, and equitable healthcare and education, were asking too much.
They, of course, could have built those things for us (via borrowing and proper taxes), and people would have stood with them... But they just were unable to let go of the neoliberal myth of "individual responsibility".
I guess a better world is up to me now: I just need to "shrink my climate footprint", "hustle and grind", put "no money down!" at some property seminars, and discover "The Secret"...
Great post election chat from Waiheke. Thank you.
I am an amateur, but for some house owners with mortgages won't anticipated higher, or real, increase in interest rates + high cost of living -> perceived/actual inability to pay mortgages -> increase in house sales and supply and some counter to your projected 20% increase in house prices?
There may be a time factor I guess eg Nat causing potential increase in inflation and RB response to that may not kick in for a while.
Lovely to hear the birdsong in the background of the podcast – a true dawn chorus.
I’m a young New Zealander who lives overseas, where I’ve been able to get a great job, buy a home, and where (as Bernard would say) my future children are likely to primarily know their Kiwi grandparents and extended family over FaceTime. I’d love to move back to NZ at some point – at least for a few years – but the high housing costs and relatively low salaries will make it a tough sell to my (non-Kiwi) wife.
I voted for the Greens because I see them as the best chance for NZ to be a better place to live. I hope they’re able to take the strength of their election result and build on it for next time.