National to form Govt, possibly just with ACT, but probably with a NZ First deal; Details likely after specials; Big losses for Labour; Greens win 3 electorate seats; TPM wins 4 seats
Will NZ First be able to stop the completely unnecessary 'stealth tax' change in the super age from 65 to 67.
The Spinoff has an average of polls as these were just before yesterday. Looking at the results against the 95% margin of error for the polls the only result that was outside the 95% margin of error band is that The Greens are just outside the lower 95% bound. All the rest are within the margin of error band.
Sigh. I’m so depressed, despite there being some bright spots (extra GP & TPM electorate seats). I most fear the promised slash & burn of regulations (what are they really going to do re the RMA and our literally shitty water infrastructure?) and good public service programmes / public servants like those I work with to address energy hardship. And of course increasing our emissions massively, oil & gas exploration, and giving us farmers more grenades to blow up the climate & our international reputation.
Then there’s the small issue of having an inexperienced fundi Christian in the pocket of two politically-much-more-astute race baiters (one who also threw his lot in with the cookers) as the “leader” during a period of global environmental and political conflagration. Can’t think of anything bad happening and it was “time for a change”, right? 🙄
Where do you get your 20% increase for residential land from though? Because they’ll transfer all wealth into landowners’ pockets via tax cuts / bright line?
Agreed. After leaving Australia in part because of Scomo (another inexperienced fundi Christian) I am deeply concerned about the level of corruption and mean spiritedness that is about to be unleashed on NZ.
Also concerned about the health system. On a personal level, I might have to keep a contingency in place to travel back to Australia for treatments (auto-immune).
Thanks for including the analysis from Henry. I really appreciate his thoughts too, and so together with you it's a real bonus (on an otherwise gloomy day). Interesting to hear what he thought WP would be wanting.
but the residential rental property owners and speculators, the banks (shareholders, boards and senior management), real estate agents and title transfer lawyers will massively increase their incomes; especially/particularly the residential rental property owners and speculators who will be able/allowed to deduct mortgage interest from their incomes before tax is calculated and who will not have to pay any capital income tax on their capital incomes.
younger New Zealanders who are wanting to purchase their first home will be forced to rent at even more extortionate rents, or flee overseas and NZ will lose those (mostly) educated people.
Bernard, I can't reconcile your view on wasted votes with your view that we need meaningful change beyond ping-ponging between the two value-marketed mainstream tribes (parties) and their subsidiaries. Act allowing National to participate in more extreme "right" activity while off-loading accountability, so not to upset its more centrist voters. And likewise with Labour and the Greens, under the guise of an environmental vote.
If it is being more "strategic" (long term planning to achieve a goal) and less "wasteful" to only vote for a party/mp that you have a very high confidence in for getting into Parliament and actually implementing meaningful change... then doesn't that just reinforce the status quo you imply we need to change? In fact, in that case would anyone vote Greens? Or actually any party at all?
Doesn't a vote for a party that doesn't get in, essentially act as a vote of no confidence in the current system (which I think should be something more explicitly added to the voting system) and not skew the greater balance in the ping-pong - so is still participating and showing support for greater change?
Otherwise, why do you do your work? Knowing that the reality is, in the near future your voice will nost likely get drowned out by the noise of the system?
At least until the point individual suffering forces change - and at that point your years of hard work will be too late for avoiding the suffering (presumably what you are trying to do by informing us)?
The election result was essentially as expected - swing voters wanted a change from team red to team blue and no logical arguments and pointing to the facts was going to make a difference. And that is because votes for team red and team blue are emotional and or selfish and not based on a logical calculation that is evidence based and also wanting collective benefit.
Well I didn't study politics - any link to that term? But regardless, I'm not sure the application of technical terms that will likely be misconstrued by most, is useful. Nor the use of the idea of implied strategy, by voting for one of the system parties causing all the trouble. Tactical maybe, but hardly strategic. Not if the goals are the type of change Bernard advocates for (which the main parties just almsot certaintmly won't do in the current paradigm and no amount of taking on the burden of Casandra is likely to change).
I agree Scott. I'm not ashamed to say I voted for TOP - it was a vote for courageous policy. I say shame on anyone who wants transformational change and voted for National or Labour, especially if they voted for the Labour candidate in Ilam.
I party voted TOP as well . No way Hipkins and his lack or principles or backbone & his low target, no policy election strategy was going to get my vote this time around.
Same here - and in regards to the term wasted, I prefer to think of it being a long game - the 47 thousand folk are just saying we'd like them to have more funding in next election to better get their views out to the wider public. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_funding_in_New_Zealand
I agree I voted for TOP as well. The more votes a party gets the more funding it gets as well. The only way to change the political landscape is to vote for minor parties and start conversations. I thought it was unlikely TOP would get in but I am thinking long term, 2 more election cycles and they will get in. Ideally next election cycle as the promises for middle income kiwis sold by National don't eventuate and Labour continues to refuse to commit to structural change.
Thanks for the birdsong - possibly the best thing about this morning. Keep up the great work! And a huge ‘well done’ to the Greens and Te Pati Māori - we are going to have a strong opposition :)
And a topic that desperately needs coverage is the immediate impact on territorial authorities who are right now preparing their Long Term Plans without any certainty about whether water infrastructure is ‘in’ or ‘out’.
Bernard, I love your work and I sense you are upset about the result. However I didn't vote National because I thought they were any good, just the opposite. I did so because Labour have been so poor, and I hope National are not as bad. I fully share your concern about housing prices, and the social effects that flow from that. I would much rather my house be worth its true lower value, and improve the chances of the younger generation to climb the ladder, as I was able to do. So I disagree with the gerontocracy vote theory.
It's truly amazing how you can be concerned about house prices, the ability of the young generation to buy a house and claim to want house prices go down yet vote for the party who's policies are going to make it much much worse.
Wonderful work Bernard, a time for reflection for all of us. It has been wearisome for me and I can only imagine how it is for you.
I agree with your point on TOP and that it was never likely to reach the threshold. We await the specials to see the final numbers and the December budget but in general terms it is Ford Ranger man in the driving seat asserting the same things and kicking the can down the road for another three years.
My initial thoughts is that the only way we can get real change is by having real conversations about all the issues that Bernard has been discussing such as fiscal redponsibility rules, that the government is not like a household, taxes. (I have an idea why dont we adopt same tax structure as Australia because while not perfect is less regressive and easier to sell). But the real work that needs to be done is to build real unity around race, indigenous rights proper push back against the dog whistling, standing proud. Remember it was National that started it all with Judith Collins desperation re the draft He puapua report and distortion of voice of Maori in water reforms and it wasnt taken seriously the original dog whistling because it was a continuation of what Chris Finlayson had started. But we should have learnt from Trumps sucess or any right wing group from history how poweful racism is in deflecting grievances from the real perpetuators of inequality to the most vulnerable. Everybody is conveniently forgetting how earlier this year Luxon was playing into anti Māori re road signs into someone i n the background tild him to pull back (and that is when the Nats started polling better). But benefit bashing is also a coded bashing of the undeserving poor).
I am hopeful that will be one of the lessons learnt is that need to be firmer and clearer in standing fir what you believe and dont worry about upsetting the landed gentry
The Labour Party lost because it stubbornly refused to read the room. It decided to do its best to look more conservative and cautious than National, ruled out any policy that could make our collective life better, including during the debates, so is there any wonder a large segment of our society didn't vote?
If Labour stood behind its name it would do the brave thing and offer an alternative to the status quo and challenge the neoliberal failed ideology we live under. Instead, Hipkins said govt books are no different to household budget so when times are tough we need to tighten the belt.
For a meaningful change in Labour there has to be a leadership change. Hipkins can't all of a sudden come out and say, you know what, actually I changed my mind, we do need a wealth/CGT/land or whatever tax. The press will crucify him if he did that, and I think he simply doesn't believe in it.
Look at the Greens & TPM and the passion in which they present & defend their policies. There won't be such passion in Labour until someone who truly believes in it will come along.
I started to have my doubts about the direction of their 2nd term when, on election night 2020, Labour's language changed from that of being "transformational" to instead being "foundational". And I knew I would not be voting Labour in 2023 when, as the new PM, Hipkins immediatel met with the business community and made comments along the lines of a "rising tide lifting all boats in the harbour".
The Labour Party started their loss the day vaccines were mandated!! The day it cost kiwis jobs due to the mandates. How they dealt with protesters how they divided our country. The list goes on. NZ obviously agreed.
Another thought. Does the leader run the party or does the party run the leader? You can cut the head off the snake but the body is still there. I’d be interested to know your thoughts on that? How does it really work we not in a dictatorship ( are we?)
Labour lost this election; National did not win it.
Labour made it clear, those of us who were asking for simple things like diverse transport choices, housing for all, climate leadership, and equitable healthcare and education, were asking too much.
They, of course, could have built those things for us (via borrowing and proper taxes), and people would have stood with them... But they just were unable to let go of the neoliberal myth of "individual responsibility".
I guess a better world is up to me now: I just need to "shrink my climate footprint", "hustle and grind", put "no money down!" at some property seminars, and discover "The Secret"...
I am an amateur, but for some house owners with mortgages won't anticipated higher, or real, increase in interest rates + high cost of living -> perceived/actual inability to pay mortgages -> increase in house sales and supply and some counter to your projected 20% increase in house prices?
There may be a time factor I guess eg Nat causing potential increase in inflation and RB response to that may not kick in for a while.
Lovely to hear the birdsong in the background of the podcast – a true dawn chorus.
I’m a young New Zealander who lives overseas, where I’ve been able to get a great job, buy a home, and where (as Bernard would say) my future children are likely to primarily know their Kiwi grandparents and extended family over FaceTime. I’d love to move back to NZ at some point – at least for a few years – but the high housing costs and relatively low salaries will make it a tough sell to my (non-Kiwi) wife.
I voted for the Greens because I see them as the best chance for NZ to be a better place to live. I hope they’re able to take the strength of their election result and build on it for next time.
Will NZ First be able to stop the completely unnecessary 'stealth tax' change in the super age from 65 to 67.
The Spinoff has an average of polls as these were just before yesterday. Looking at the results against the 95% margin of error for the polls the only result that was outside the 95% margin of error band is that The Greens are just outside the lower 95% bound. All the rest are within the margin of error band.
Sigh. I’m so depressed, despite there being some bright spots (extra GP & TPM electorate seats). I most fear the promised slash & burn of regulations (what are they really going to do re the RMA and our literally shitty water infrastructure?) and good public service programmes / public servants like those I work with to address energy hardship. And of course increasing our emissions massively, oil & gas exploration, and giving us farmers more grenades to blow up the climate & our international reputation.
Then there’s the small issue of having an inexperienced fundi Christian in the pocket of two politically-much-more-astute race baiters (one who also threw his lot in with the cookers) as the “leader” during a period of global environmental and political conflagration. Can’t think of anything bad happening and it was “time for a change”, right? 🙄
Where do you get your 20% increase for residential land from though? Because they’ll transfer all wealth into landowners’ pockets via tax cuts / bright line?
The slash and burn of regulations terrifies me as well.
Agreed. After leaving Australia in part because of Scomo (another inexperienced fundi Christian) I am deeply concerned about the level of corruption and mean spiritedness that is about to be unleashed on NZ.
Also concerned about the health system. On a personal level, I might have to keep a contingency in place to travel back to Australia for treatments (auto-immune).
Yep. Happened this morning.
Thanks for including the analysis from Henry. I really appreciate his thoughts too, and so together with you it's a real bonus (on an otherwise gloomy day). Interesting to hear what he thought WP would be wanting.
I think we all lost last night. ☹️
but the residential rental property owners and speculators, the banks (shareholders, boards and senior management), real estate agents and title transfer lawyers will massively increase their incomes; especially/particularly the residential rental property owners and speculators who will be able/allowed to deduct mortgage interest from their incomes before tax is calculated and who will not have to pay any capital income tax on their capital incomes.
younger New Zealanders who are wanting to purchase their first home will be forced to rent at even more extortionate rents, or flee overseas and NZ will lose those (mostly) educated people.
Loved the background birdsong Bernard. Sounds like it's a magic new spot. Also, ka pai on your te reo Māori on The Hoon
Bernard, I can't reconcile your view on wasted votes with your view that we need meaningful change beyond ping-ponging between the two value-marketed mainstream tribes (parties) and their subsidiaries. Act allowing National to participate in more extreme "right" activity while off-loading accountability, so not to upset its more centrist voters. And likewise with Labour and the Greens, under the guise of an environmental vote.
If it is being more "strategic" (long term planning to achieve a goal) and less "wasteful" to only vote for a party/mp that you have a very high confidence in for getting into Parliament and actually implementing meaningful change... then doesn't that just reinforce the status quo you imply we need to change? In fact, in that case would anyone vote Greens? Or actually any party at all?
Doesn't a vote for a party that doesn't get in, essentially act as a vote of no confidence in the current system (which I think should be something more explicitly added to the voting system) and not skew the greater balance in the ping-pong - so is still participating and showing support for greater change?
Otherwise, why do you do your work? Knowing that the reality is, in the near future your voice will nost likely get drowned out by the noise of the system?
At least until the point individual suffering forces change - and at that point your years of hard work will be too late for avoiding the suffering (presumably what you are trying to do by informing us)?
The election result was essentially as expected - swing voters wanted a change from team red to team blue and no logical arguments and pointing to the facts was going to make a difference. And that is because votes for team red and team blue are emotional and or selfish and not based on a logical calculation that is evidence based and also wanting collective benefit.
Wasted vote is a technical term, not a moral one.
Well I didn't study politics - any link to that term? But regardless, I'm not sure the application of technical terms that will likely be misconstrued by most, is useful. Nor the use of the idea of implied strategy, by voting for one of the system parties causing all the trouble. Tactical maybe, but hardly strategic. Not if the goals are the type of change Bernard advocates for (which the main parties just almsot certaintmly won't do in the current paradigm and no amount of taking on the burden of Casandra is likely to change).
about 5 percent of the votes cast do not have/result in an MP in parliament.
therefore justice and morality require that the number of MPs be reduced by 5 percent (ie 6 seats/(MPs)) to 114 plus an "overhang" or two.
I agree Scott. I'm not ashamed to say I voted for TOP - it was a vote for courageous policy. I say shame on anyone who wants transformational change and voted for National or Labour, especially if they voted for the Labour candidate in Ilam.
I party voted TOP as well . No way Hipkins and his lack or principles or backbone & his low target, no policy election strategy was going to get my vote this time around.
Same here - and in regards to the term wasted, I prefer to think of it being a long game - the 47 thousand folk are just saying we'd like them to have more funding in next election to better get their views out to the wider public. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_funding_in_New_Zealand
I agree I voted for TOP as well. The more votes a party gets the more funding it gets as well. The only way to change the political landscape is to vote for minor parties and start conversations. I thought it was unlikely TOP would get in but I am thinking long term, 2 more election cycles and they will get in. Ideally next election cycle as the promises for middle income kiwis sold by National don't eventuate and Labour continues to refuse to commit to structural change.
Thanks for the birdsong - possibly the best thing about this morning. Keep up the great work! And a huge ‘well done’ to the Greens and Te Pati Māori - we are going to have a strong opposition :)
And a topic that desperately needs coverage is the immediate impact on territorial authorities who are right now preparing their Long Term Plans without any certainty about whether water infrastructure is ‘in’ or ‘out’.
Excellent point
Lovin' the backing chorus. Tūī meke 🐦⬛🐦⬛🐦⬛
Bernard, I love your work and I sense you are upset about the result. However I didn't vote National because I thought they were any good, just the opposite. I did so because Labour have been so poor, and I hope National are not as bad. I fully share your concern about housing prices, and the social effects that flow from that. I would much rather my house be worth its true lower value, and improve the chances of the younger generation to climb the ladder, as I was able to do. So I disagree with the gerontocracy vote theory.
It's truly amazing how you can be concerned about house prices, the ability of the young generation to buy a house and claim to want house prices go down yet vote for the party who's policies are going to make it much much worse.
you say "amazing". I say; beyond all/any rational thinking.
"I hope National are not as bad."
your hope is an impossibility!!!
the sufferings amongst/in New Zealand society are going to increase colossally!!!
National and Labour were not the only options.
Wonderful work Bernard, a time for reflection for all of us. It has been wearisome for me and I can only imagine how it is for you.
I agree with your point on TOP and that it was never likely to reach the threshold. We await the specials to see the final numbers and the December budget but in general terms it is Ford Ranger man in the driving seat asserting the same things and kicking the can down the road for another three years.
I doubt that the EU will allow/give NZ 3 years.
My initial thoughts is that the only way we can get real change is by having real conversations about all the issues that Bernard has been discussing such as fiscal redponsibility rules, that the government is not like a household, taxes. (I have an idea why dont we adopt same tax structure as Australia because while not perfect is less regressive and easier to sell). But the real work that needs to be done is to build real unity around race, indigenous rights proper push back against the dog whistling, standing proud. Remember it was National that started it all with Judith Collins desperation re the draft He puapua report and distortion of voice of Maori in water reforms and it wasnt taken seriously the original dog whistling because it was a continuation of what Chris Finlayson had started. But we should have learnt from Trumps sucess or any right wing group from history how poweful racism is in deflecting grievances from the real perpetuators of inequality to the most vulnerable. Everybody is conveniently forgetting how earlier this year Luxon was playing into anti Māori re road signs into someone i n the background tild him to pull back (and that is when the Nats started polling better). But benefit bashing is also a coded bashing of the undeserving poor).
I am hopeful that will be one of the lessons learnt is that need to be firmer and clearer in standing fir what you believe and dont worry about upsetting the landed gentry
The Labour Party lost because it stubbornly refused to read the room. It decided to do its best to look more conservative and cautious than National, ruled out any policy that could make our collective life better, including during the debates, so is there any wonder a large segment of our society didn't vote?
If Labour stood behind its name it would do the brave thing and offer an alternative to the status quo and challenge the neoliberal failed ideology we live under. Instead, Hipkins said govt books are no different to household budget so when times are tough we need to tighten the belt.
For a meaningful change in Labour there has to be a leadership change. Hipkins can't all of a sudden come out and say, you know what, actually I changed my mind, we do need a wealth/CGT/land or whatever tax. The press will crucify him if he did that, and I think he simply doesn't believe in it.
Look at the Greens & TPM and the passion in which they present & defend their policies. There won't be such passion in Labour until someone who truly believes in it will come along.
I started to have my doubts about the direction of their 2nd term when, on election night 2020, Labour's language changed from that of being "transformational" to instead being "foundational". And I knew I would not be voting Labour in 2023 when, as the new PM, Hipkins immediatel met with the business community and made comments along the lines of a "rising tide lifting all boats in the harbour".
The Labour Party started their loss the day vaccines were mandated!! The day it cost kiwis jobs due to the mandates. How they dealt with protesters how they divided our country. The list goes on. NZ obviously agreed.
Another thought. Does the leader run the party or does the party run the leader? You can cut the head off the snake but the body is still there. I’d be interested to know your thoughts on that? How does it really work we not in a dictatorship ( are we?)
Labour lost this election; National did not win it.
Labour made it clear, those of us who were asking for simple things like diverse transport choices, housing for all, climate leadership, and equitable healthcare and education, were asking too much.
They, of course, could have built those things for us (via borrowing and proper taxes), and people would have stood with them... But they just were unable to let go of the neoliberal myth of "individual responsibility".
I guess a better world is up to me now: I just need to "shrink my climate footprint", "hustle and grind", put "no money down!" at some property seminars, and discover "The Secret"...
Great post election chat from Waiheke. Thank you.
I am an amateur, but for some house owners with mortgages won't anticipated higher, or real, increase in interest rates + high cost of living -> perceived/actual inability to pay mortgages -> increase in house sales and supply and some counter to your projected 20% increase in house prices?
There may be a time factor I guess eg Nat causing potential increase in inflation and RB response to that may not kick in for a while.
Lovely to hear the birdsong in the background of the podcast – a true dawn chorus.
I’m a young New Zealander who lives overseas, where I’ve been able to get a great job, buy a home, and where (as Bernard would say) my future children are likely to primarily know their Kiwi grandparents and extended family over FaceTime. I’d love to move back to NZ at some point – at least for a few years – but the high housing costs and relatively low salaries will make it a tough sell to my (non-Kiwi) wife.
I voted for the Greens because I see them as the best chance for NZ to be a better place to live. I hope they’re able to take the strength of their election result and build on it for next time.