Bernard Hickey and Jenee Tibshraeny chew over the week of protests, the inflationary effects of a minimum wage hike, how the RBNZ might unwind its money printing and possible tweaks to the CCCFA
The protesters are acting like fascists rather than traditional protesters because they are effectively being indoctrinated and led by extreme fascists.
There are people behind the social media accounts exploiting the "algorithms".The toxic unreality being spewed out by them has become an existential risk for NZ Democracy.
Jason Stanley -"Part of what fascist politics does is get people to disassociate from reality. You get them to sign on to this fantasy version of reality, ..."
Toxic right wing unreal politically propaganda, shared by Antivaxxers on social media, has convinced people that the governments are trying to poison them and the children with vaccine. Of course the more deluded deranged people are acting accordingly. Until their unreality bubble is burst, this extreme right wing will continue to incite violence, world wide.
The good news is that the majority of New Zealand is not falling for it.
I agree that the anti-vax movement is dangerous, that the vaccines save lives and are probably safe for most people.
There is legitimate suspicion around big pharma profits, corruption, removal of liability over vaccine injury, lack of transparency over vaccine study data.
The vaccine doesn't stop the spread or much reduce the spread, and Omicron is less dangerous than delta.
Most New Zealanders are vaccinated. It's time to move on from the vaccine mandates and mandate affordable housing instead.
Covid has become cover for ignoring every other problem in society.
We thought the original strain of COVID-19 would be the end of it, then Delta came along. We thought Delta would be the end of it, then Omicron came along. Don't assume that Omicron WILL be the end of it.
Yes there are other problems in society that have to be dealt with, but isn't it strange how every time you raise the magnitude of the immediate problems, the same types seem to always say "what about" another problem & "time to move on".
It is cyclical, going from climate change, wealth inequities, under resourced infrastructure, the economies and other immediate issues - always a similar response.
Some thoughts on your CCCFA comments. Jenee is spot on, need to wait for more data to determine the overall impact. However, the banks are saying (and I'm seeing) borrowers who would previously have been able to borrow to buy a house can no longer. How many vulnerable borrowers are in a position to buy a house?
This legislation was not designed to slow the housing market. It was intended to protect vulnerable borrowers from loan sharks. The CCCFA updates released in December began their legislative journey over 5 years ago, and have had unintended consequences for first home buyers, older borrowers, and small business owners.
There are some elements of the legislation that are great, such as all lenders needing to be registered, and senior management identified. The prescriptive nature of the servicing requirements has been wholly unhelpful for the bulk of lending in $ terms.
The fact that 'buy now pay later' was excluded is a joke - probably the area most likely to catch out vulnerable borrowers.
Good point on Buy Now Pay Later. How do you think the regulations could be tweaked to make it more sensible for mortgage lending. Also: How else do you deleverage without these sorts of judgements, other than the blunt instrument of even bigger rate hikes?
There are relatively minor changes that can be made to remove some of the prescriptive nature of the legislation around testing a borrowers ability to service a loan. The changes in my opinion would not mean mean vulnerable borrowers would be put at risk.
Two additional comments:
- Nicola Willis's approach to 'carve out banks' from the legislation is definitely not the answer. You simply entrench banks power further. All lenders should be subject to the legislation - just get the legislation calibrated correctly.
- Banks are testing borrowers at ~6.50% borrowing rates. So in theory, rates can rise to this level before pain actually kicks in. Some belt tightening would need to go on before 6.50% clearly, but should not mean that people can't service their loan. If the neutral OCR is 2.00%, the chances of 6.50% fixed rates for home owners are pretty slim. Remember that the neutral OCR has dropped from around 5.00% 20 years ago.
Just listened and must agree with Jenee it is a very big call to link the current protest to the Christchurch killer. I just can't make the jump.
There's a case that the Capitol event was a threat to US deomcracy but is this group in NZ really a threat to ours? Maybe I am not appreciating the level of violence and crimes that you can see when on the ground there..... you mention parking illegally and throwing eggs. What else has the crowd done so far that puts them in the same group as Christchurch? Can you tell us more about the death threats you mentioned? I agree with pretty much everything you write so please help! Thanks
Thanks. JP F. I've seen the handwritten death threats delivered to journalists' home addresses which mention how and when they will be murdered, and their families. Police have been informed. Nothing done. Have a read of this. Clear connections between the groups and ideologies that spawned the Christchurch attack and those involved with these protests. https://www.isdglobal.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/NZ-Online-Extremism-Findings-Report.pdf
Here's the key quote from that report: Overall, our research shows that New Zealand is not an exception to broader international extremism trends.
A concentrated but engaged core of online activists in New Zealand are intimately plugged into international extremist subcultures which draw New Zealanders away from the protective factors around them – such as a long history of liberal values and strong institutions – and surround them with the polarising grievances raging on the other side of the world. To a lesser extent, international extremist subcultures are also plugged into New Zealand and discuss the people, places and issues of the country at some volume, especially the Christchurch attack itself."
I checked out the counterspin media site over the weekend. Its is quite extraordinary some of the nonsense these guys are pushing out. Its also clear that these people are getting enough funding and traction from external sources to keep pushing out their message and there is no certainty that all this funding is home grown. I understand the concerns with a mandate. There is certainly some who are keen to have punitive measures put on the group of people who have chosen not to get with the program. However the misinformation and just pain stupidity here highlights the need for a mandate in the first place. It has been badly handled by the government. The mandate was required however we needed to define its limits and bring every one along with the process we have a government who has largely pretended the dissent is not there and hasn't had a plan to deal with it. Even in my professional work place and among friends we all have people who have been sweped up in some of this nonsense and we have had months of trying to deal with the anti vax group.
But surely if interest rates rise and mortgage payments say double that takes the money out of circulation. Whether that is good or bad is a different question.
Personally I am anti-mandate, particularly where it relates to vaccines which have unknown long term effects, don't prevent infection, and do not prevent transmission. I've been vaccinated myself, but I don't support the idea that people should be stripped of their jobs and freedoms because they've decided they don't want one for whatever reason.
As for Brexit and Trump, I disagree with you on them as well I am afraid Bernard. But let's leave that for another day!
The protesters are acting like fascists rather than traditional protesters because they are effectively being indoctrinated and led by extreme fascists.
There are people behind the social media accounts exploiting the "algorithms".The toxic unreality being spewed out by them has become an existential risk for NZ Democracy.
https://www.grid.news/story/misinformation/2022/02/11/the-canadian-freedom-convoy-is-backed-by-a-bangladeshi-marketing-firm-and-right-wing-fringe-groups/
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2022/02/facebook-hate-speech-misinformation-superusers/621617/
Jason Stanley -"Part of what fascist politics does is get people to disassociate from reality. You get them to sign on to this fantasy version of reality, ..."
https://www.vox.com/2018/9/19/17847110/how-fascism-works-donald-trump-jason-stanley
Falling into the ‘freedom’ movement ... and getting out
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/australia/300516583/falling-into-the-freedom-movement--and-getting-out
Toxic right wing unreal politically propaganda, shared by Antivaxxers on social media, has convinced people that the governments are trying to poison them and the children with vaccine. Of course the more deluded deranged people are acting accordingly. Until their unreality bubble is burst, this extreme right wing will continue to incite violence, world wide.
The good news is that the majority of New Zealand is not falling for it.
https://twitter.com/TinaNgataPublic/status/1453461595854573569
I agree that the anti-vax movement is dangerous, that the vaccines save lives and are probably safe for most people.
There is legitimate suspicion around big pharma profits, corruption, removal of liability over vaccine injury, lack of transparency over vaccine study data.
The vaccine doesn't stop the spread or much reduce the spread, and Omicron is less dangerous than delta.
Most New Zealanders are vaccinated. It's time to move on from the vaccine mandates and mandate affordable housing instead.
Covid has become cover for ignoring every other problem in society.
What do you mean "safe for most people", how do you tell which people it isn't safe for? There probably are more REAL people that listed on
https://www.sorryantivaxxer.com/
than REAL people that have died from adverse effects of the vaccine.
Compared to other wealthy countries, the virus in the U.S. is killing people at much higher rates - because of the number of people not vaccinated.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/02/briefing/coronavirus-briefing-omicron-death-toll.html
Tracking the death toll world wide shows that this pandemic is far from over
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates
We thought the original strain of COVID-19 would be the end of it, then Delta came along. We thought Delta would be the end of it, then Omicron came along. Don't assume that Omicron WILL be the end of it.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/12/scientists-plead-caution-covid-restrictions-lifted-england
Yes there are other problems in society that have to be dealt with, but isn't it strange how every time you raise the magnitude of the immediate problems, the same types seem to always say "what about" another problem & "time to move on".
It is cyclical, going from climate change, wealth inequities, under resourced infrastructure, the economies and other immediate issues - always a similar response.
Some thoughts on your CCCFA comments. Jenee is spot on, need to wait for more data to determine the overall impact. However, the banks are saying (and I'm seeing) borrowers who would previously have been able to borrow to buy a house can no longer. How many vulnerable borrowers are in a position to buy a house?
This legislation was not designed to slow the housing market. It was intended to protect vulnerable borrowers from loan sharks. The CCCFA updates released in December began their legislative journey over 5 years ago, and have had unintended consequences for first home buyers, older borrowers, and small business owners.
There are some elements of the legislation that are great, such as all lenders needing to be registered, and senior management identified. The prescriptive nature of the servicing requirements has been wholly unhelpful for the bulk of lending in $ terms.
The fact that 'buy now pay later' was excluded is a joke - probably the area most likely to catch out vulnerable borrowers.
Good point on Buy Now Pay Later. How do you think the regulations could be tweaked to make it more sensible for mortgage lending. Also: How else do you deleverage without these sorts of judgements, other than the blunt instrument of even bigger rate hikes?
There are relatively minor changes that can be made to remove some of the prescriptive nature of the legislation around testing a borrowers ability to service a loan. The changes in my opinion would not mean mean vulnerable borrowers would be put at risk.
Two additional comments:
- Nicola Willis's approach to 'carve out banks' from the legislation is definitely not the answer. You simply entrench banks power further. All lenders should be subject to the legislation - just get the legislation calibrated correctly.
- Banks are testing borrowers at ~6.50% borrowing rates. So in theory, rates can rise to this level before pain actually kicks in. Some belt tightening would need to go on before 6.50% clearly, but should not mean that people can't service their loan. If the neutral OCR is 2.00%, the chances of 6.50% fixed rates for home owners are pretty slim. Remember that the neutral OCR has dropped from around 5.00% 20 years ago.
Thanks Dave. Which prescriptive measures? And why wouldn’t it let loan sharks off the hook?
If you want to get in to detail, happy to take it off line. Not sure how to message you directly here, so will message you directly on twitter.
Just listened and must agree with Jenee it is a very big call to link the current protest to the Christchurch killer. I just can't make the jump.
There's a case that the Capitol event was a threat to US deomcracy but is this group in NZ really a threat to ours? Maybe I am not appreciating the level of violence and crimes that you can see when on the ground there..... you mention parking illegally and throwing eggs. What else has the crowd done so far that puts them in the same group as Christchurch? Can you tell us more about the death threats you mentioned? I agree with pretty much everything you write so please help! Thanks
Thanks. JP F. I've seen the handwritten death threats delivered to journalists' home addresses which mention how and when they will be murdered, and their families. Police have been informed. Nothing done. Have a read of this. Clear connections between the groups and ideologies that spawned the Christchurch attack and those involved with these protests. https://www.isdglobal.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/NZ-Online-Extremism-Findings-Report.pdf
Here's the key quote from that report: Overall, our research shows that New Zealand is not an exception to broader international extremism trends.
A concentrated but engaged core of online activists in New Zealand are intimately plugged into international extremist subcultures which draw New Zealanders away from the protective factors around them – such as a long history of liberal values and strong institutions – and surround them with the polarising grievances raging on the other side of the world. To a lesser extent, international extremist subcultures are also plugged into New Zealand and discuss the people, places and issues of the country at some volume, especially the Christchurch attack itself."
Interesting. I now see how you linked it. Thank you.
Do we really have to wait until the shooting starts again before taking action?
As for what is going on in Wellington I highly recommend diving into the detailed threads of the amazing work of
Te Rangikaiwhiria Kemara
https://twitter.com/Te_Taipo
I checked out the counterspin media site over the weekend. Its is quite extraordinary some of the nonsense these guys are pushing out. Its also clear that these people are getting enough funding and traction from external sources to keep pushing out their message and there is no certainty that all this funding is home grown. I understand the concerns with a mandate. There is certainly some who are keen to have punitive measures put on the group of people who have chosen not to get with the program. However the misinformation and just pain stupidity here highlights the need for a mandate in the first place. It has been badly handled by the government. The mandate was required however we needed to define its limits and bring every one along with the process we have a government who has largely pretended the dissent is not there and hasn't had a plan to deal with it. Even in my professional work place and among friends we all have people who have been sweped up in some of this nonsense and we have had months of trying to deal with the anti vax group.
But surely if interest rates rise and mortgage payments say double that takes the money out of circulation. Whether that is good or bad is a different question.
Personally I am anti-mandate, particularly where it relates to vaccines which have unknown long term effects, don't prevent infection, and do not prevent transmission. I've been vaccinated myself, but I don't support the idea that people should be stripped of their jobs and freedoms because they've decided they don't want one for whatever reason.
As for Brexit and Trump, I disagree with you on them as well I am afraid Bernard. But let's leave that for another day!