World Bank recession warning

TLDR: The World Bank has warned higher energy, food and fertiliser prices are set to push the global economy into recession. This came as fresh data out overnight showed US GDP contracted at an annual rate of 1.5% in the March quarter, which, paradoxically, lifted US stock markets this morning because it reduced their fears about higher interest rates.

“It's hard right now to see how we avoid a recession” said World Bank President David Malpass . Photo: Clemens Bilan/Getty Images)

Also overnight: PM Jacinda Ardern warned in her Harvard commencement address speech democracies were on a ‘precipice’ because of the corrosive and divisive effects on public discourse of ‘keyboard warriors’ on social media, although she didn’t suggest solutions. She also announced after the speech she would meet with US President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris in Washington DC next Tuesday night.

And briefly:

• Britain imposed a 25% windfall tax on the profits of oil, gas and electricity companies to raise £15b (NZ$29.2b) to pay for a £400 per household energy discount;

• ExxonMobil agreed to climate activist shareholder demands to publish an audit detailing how moving to carbon zero by 2050 would affect profits and asset values;

• US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said in a major speech that China was a bigger threat to the world than Russia, just as China’s Foreign Minister is set to try to pull a dozen Pacific nations into a much tighter alliance with China;

• The NZ Herald-$$$¹’s Kate MacNamara reported this morning the husband and family members of Nanaia Mahuta were awarded consultancy contracts worth $90,000 by the Ministry for the Environment when Mahuta was the department's Associate Minister, although Mahuta’s office said she had no involvement in the decisions and had complied with the Cabinet Manual around conflicts of interest; and,

• As many as 150 Wellington high-rise buildings use the precast hollow-core concrete floors which could “catastrophically fail” in the event of a significant earthquake, the Dominion Post’s Piers Fuller and Kate Green reported this morning.

Paid subscribers can see more analysis and detail below the paywall fold on the items noted briefly above.

Today I’m on lighter duties on my sixth day since testing positive for Covid. But I’m still planning to do my midday Ask Me Anything and our 5pm live ‘hoon’ webinar summarising the main events of the week for paid subscribers. As a taster, just for this week, here’s a link both free and paid subscribers can jump on at 5pm to check it out. We record it and put it out as a podcast for all tomorrow.