Trump threats to Fed Chair Jerome 'Major Loser' Powell worsen rush to exit US markets; Willis sticking to tight budget, despite global tariff shock; China & US want trading partners to choose
Good points Ben. The curious thing is the previous National Government from 2009 to 2017 did exactly that: borrowed to invest in public infrastructure, including roads and broadband, during the 2009-10 recession and then again from 2011 to 2012 in quake recovery. Its big mistake was to stop from 2012 onwards in a mistaken drive for surpluses at all costs.
I agree with Ben Marino. The finance minister as I have said before is plainly stupid and practising economics from the 20th or perhaps the 19th century. Benefits only the rich. They care of little else. P M. Says the late Pope was caring. Cannot be applied to him. He should read the late Pope’s encyclical on Climate change also but as a “born again” christian he makes himself out to be his lack of caring for 20% of NZ people is staggering.
It really does feel like the government has just given up on everything. Why are they even pretending to do their jobs? That Stuff climate article is great, but even they’re stuck quoting 2.7 degrees by 2100. Ha. The French have just released plans anticipating 4 degrees of warming. Which is sad, France as a concept probably can’t survive that level of warming.
It's the idea "adaptation" to climate change without "mitigation" is an option. It will end badly. Every day, week, month, year we do not start properly mitigating human impact on climate change means multiplying factors (feedback loops), acceleration until we're so far backed into a corner that even most drastic measures won't safe us.
Willis is firmly in the Ruth Richardson finance minister mode, a one trick pony focused on cutting government expenditure, no matter the impact. Richardson’s cuts reverberated for 20-25 years, Willis’s will do the same.
A lot of 'Ruth Richardson influence' is via the Business Roundtable in its NZ Initiative reincarnation - ex-senior economists into the Prime Minister's office, the Minister of (Domestic) Finance previously a board member, and so on.
I think I differ from Bernard in that I would bash on about increasing debt levels being a distance second best option to higher taxes; it would be better to have higher taxes, lower debt and more infrastructure spending. Of course my views are so far out of whack with the electorate they are not in the Overton window, which I suspect is why he doesn't go there.
Now is the right time to increase government debt, as we emerge from a recession (maybe), but over the medium and long term we should be moving in the opposite direction. New Zealand needs to work toward generating budget surpluses and building a fiscal fund that eventually exceeds our total government debt. With a low national savings rate and an aging population, not to mention the rising costs that will come with climate change, we need to start preparing now for the financial pressures of the future. That means using debt wisely in the short term, but aiming for long-term resilience through savings and surplus. We need a resilient public balance sheet for the decades ahead
Possible if attention is not given to the level of unused available resource and endeavouring to not go beyond a full employment economy, remembering that 'full employment' includes factoring in such matters as biophysical limits to growth and mitigating climate change.
Not sure if you're serious but those who end up bearing the burden on increased money supply are quite different than those who bear the burden of a progressive tax system. The poor will pay disproportionately when you have inflation, and it creates inefficiencies in the economy due to uncertainty re pricing
Thank you Andrew: WHAT is funded is the important issue. This involves some kind of strategy too. If this is based on new roads and driving faster so people won't have to sit so long in traffic jams and the economy will thereby flourish, we have a measure of this perhaps.
To me, your later comment about what/who the coalition in fact serves, nails it.
Excuse the ignorant question but might someone please explain why our government or any other, doesn’t just ”spend money into existence” in preference to borrowing via Treasurer bonds?
I'm tired of Willis rabbiting on about 'fiscal responsibility' & 'balanced budgets.' Labour increased debt during Covid & saved 20,000 lives, (Otago med school study). Compare this to Willis who last year, borrowed $15B more than Labour's projections, to finance tax cuts of $13B, of which 65% went to the wealthiest 40% of the population & there's been no benefit to the economy. Willis is either a fool or a liar - quite possibly both.
"China warned its trading partners it would retaliate against those that sided with the United States in any trade deal that comes at China’s expense, while Trump said he may want countries to choose between America and China. "
Meanwhile Modi tells Vance he's on the American side against China, after Luxon has grovelled to Modi to court a trade deal and told him that NZ will join India in a military alliance to protect the Pacific (surely against China).
Where this leaves NZ should perhaps not be named, for fear that Chinese spies are listening in🙄, but I think it's worse than between the devil and the deep blue sea.
Why does it seem like this government is doing everything not to solve an affordable housing crisis? I think it's time we started asking the hard questions of them. Media seem to ask a question and basically whoever they are asking, answers with something that has absolutely nothing to do with the question asked. They keep saying their polices will fix the economy, time someone asked the HOW and to explain it in a way the entire country understands it. Because from where I'm sitting, they are creating a situation where the majority of MPs are going to make a lot of money from housing (perhaps the reason why Luxon divested himself of his).
Inviting overseas buyers, refusing to invest in social housing, actively ruining the construction industry (10,000 construction workers have left to go overseas).
Sometimes I feel like I'm the only person seeing all this? Where are our media? Where is the opposition (or do the current policies suit their personal interests perhaps?)
And who made NIcola Willis the guru of Economic Strategy? There is a rumour that she is being advised by Ruth Richardson, Willis' unwavering arrogance in her monetary policy suggests this might be true.
No, I'm seeing all this too!!! Arrogance . . . or simple ignorance, looking for any kind of a steer? She has no finance or economics background at all, worked as a kind of busy bee for John Key, then as lobbyist for Fonterra, then for the New Zealand Initiative - - an Atlas Network hatchling which disseminates neoliberal ideology.
No, I'm seeing all this too!!! Arrogance . . . or simple ignorance, looking for any kind of a steer? She has no finance or economics background at all, worked as a kind of busy bee for John Key, then as lobbyist for Fonterra, then for the New Zealand Initiative - - an Atlas Network hatchling which disseminates neoliberal ideology.
Am sure Ruth Richardson is in charge of our embarrassing pretend numbers person. Someone is operating her mouth. How do people say the required words without getting sick? I can't get my head around it.
Apparently they really do not care: about climate change, public service, housing, education or any of the other things that make a society tick. I really don't understand how they can be so impervious to anything or anyone else. They're not even good at what they say they will do.
Thanks for sharing the NZ’s over-reliance on roads for freight, article by Cécile L'Hermitte.
I wished Cécile also explored some of the benefits for drivers eg: reduction of heavy traffic volume, especially long haul, reduced road maintenance, more opportunities for bike lanes in more places that would also reduce general traffic volume & less diesel fumes in our streets.
I don't even think we know all the possible benefits that could come from this, even if the lead times on goods are slightly longer.
Never waste a good crisis, the Ardern Government did with Covid they could’ve leveraged the situation for transformational change on tax and equity.
This Government to could use this crisis to address the infrastructure deficit as a hedge against economic headwinds but no, just more of the same
Two very good points.
Good points Ben. The curious thing is the previous National Government from 2009 to 2017 did exactly that: borrowed to invest in public infrastructure, including roads and broadband, during the 2009-10 recession and then again from 2011 to 2012 in quake recovery. Its big mistake was to stop from 2012 onwards in a mistaken drive for surpluses at all costs.
Thanks Bernard, odd indeed! I clearly remember the Hoon where Nicola Willis joined you, feeling she was open and receptive.
Even to a G&T, this would seem such a great opportunity to do exactly this.
Hi Bernard
I agree with Ben Marino. The finance minister as I have said before is plainly stupid and practising economics from the 20th or perhaps the 19th century. Benefits only the rich. They care of little else. P M. Says the late Pope was caring. Cannot be applied to him. He should read the late Pope’s encyclical on Climate change also but as a “born again” christian he makes himself out to be his lack of caring for 20% of NZ people is staggering.
Patrick Medlicott
Nicola Willis announces her fiscal policy will ignore reality. This won’t end well
It really does feel like the government has just given up on everything. Why are they even pretending to do their jobs? That Stuff climate article is great, but even they’re stuck quoting 2.7 degrees by 2100. Ha. The French have just released plans anticipating 4 degrees of warming. Which is sad, France as a concept probably can’t survive that level of warming.
It's the idea "adaptation" to climate change without "mitigation" is an option. It will end badly. Every day, week, month, year we do not start properly mitigating human impact on climate change means multiplying factors (feedback loops), acceleration until we're so far backed into a corner that even most drastic measures won't safe us.
Willis is firmly in the Ruth Richardson finance minister mode, a one trick pony focused on cutting government expenditure, no matter the impact. Richardson’s cuts reverberated for 20-25 years, Willis’s will do the same.
the level of single-minded arrogance would suggest that there is a lot of Ruth Richardson influence there.
A lot of 'Ruth Richardson influence' is via the Business Roundtable in its NZ Initiative reincarnation - ex-senior economists into the Prime Minister's office, the Minister of (Domestic) Finance previously a board member, and so on.
Rogernomics
Ruthenasia
Nicolappropriate?
Williseppuku?
I think I differ from Bernard in that I would bash on about increasing debt levels being a distance second best option to higher taxes; it would be better to have higher taxes, lower debt and more infrastructure spending. Of course my views are so far out of whack with the electorate they are not in the Overton window, which I suspect is why he doesn't go there.
Now is the right time to increase government debt, as we emerge from a recession (maybe), but over the medium and long term we should be moving in the opposite direction. New Zealand needs to work toward generating budget surpluses and building a fiscal fund that eventually exceeds our total government debt. With a low national savings rate and an aging population, not to mention the rising costs that will come with climate change, we need to start preparing now for the financial pressures of the future. That means using debt wisely in the short term, but aiming for long-term resilience through savings and surplus. We need a resilient public balance sheet for the decades ahead
the government must not increase debt !!!
the government must itself expand the money supply.
inflation?
Possible if attention is not given to the level of unused available resource and endeavouring to not go beyond a full employment economy, remembering that 'full employment' includes factoring in such matters as biophysical limits to growth and mitigating climate change.
no different than borrowing.
and all that interest to lenders is avoided !!!
Not sure if you're serious but those who end up bearing the burden on increased money supply are quite different than those who bear the burden of a progressive tax system. The poor will pay disproportionately when you have inflation, and it creates inefficiencies in the economy due to uncertainty re pricing
Why all this borrowing from the FIRE sector when the government can just spend money into existence? What is funded is the important issue.
Thank you Andrew: WHAT is funded is the important issue. This involves some kind of strategy too. If this is based on new roads and driving faster so people won't have to sit so long in traffic jams and the economy will thereby flourish, we have a measure of this perhaps.
To me, your later comment about what/who the coalition in fact serves, nails it.
Excuse the ignorant question but might someone please explain why our government or any other, doesn’t just ”spend money into existence” in preference to borrowing via Treasurer bonds?
It's fine. We can all just escape to and buy houses in Hawaii.
Oh hang on, its becoming an ethnostate. Never mind.
I am expecting some head stuck in the sand cartoons imminently.
I think their heads are stuck inside their money vaults instead of sand. As long as they are "wealthy & sorted" it's all good.
🫠👍
I'm tired of Willis rabbiting on about 'fiscal responsibility' & 'balanced budgets.' Labour increased debt during Covid & saved 20,000 lives, (Otago med school study). Compare this to Willis who last year, borrowed $15B more than Labour's projections, to finance tax cuts of $13B, of which 65% went to the wealthiest 40% of the population & there's been no benefit to the economy. Willis is either a fool or a liar - quite possibly both.
perhaps a complete fool who is happy to the the pawn of someone else?
A pawn of the Atlas network & its stooges
"China warned its trading partners it would retaliate against those that sided with the United States in any trade deal that comes at China’s expense, while Trump said he may want countries to choose between America and China. "
Meanwhile Modi tells Vance he's on the American side against China, after Luxon has grovelled to Modi to court a trade deal and told him that NZ will join India in a military alliance to protect the Pacific (surely against China).
Where this leaves NZ should perhaps not be named, for fear that Chinese spies are listening in🙄, but I think it's worse than between the devil and the deep blue sea.
Suspect if Willis even wanted to do something, she couldn't due to coalition arrangements.
Why does it seem like this government is doing everything not to solve an affordable housing crisis? I think it's time we started asking the hard questions of them. Media seem to ask a question and basically whoever they are asking, answers with something that has absolutely nothing to do with the question asked. They keep saying their polices will fix the economy, time someone asked the HOW and to explain it in a way the entire country understands it. Because from where I'm sitting, they are creating a situation where the majority of MPs are going to make a lot of money from housing (perhaps the reason why Luxon divested himself of his).
Inviting overseas buyers, refusing to invest in social housing, actively ruining the construction industry (10,000 construction workers have left to go overseas).
Sometimes I feel like I'm the only person seeing all this? Where are our media? Where is the opposition (or do the current policies suit their personal interests perhaps?)
And who made NIcola Willis the guru of Economic Strategy? There is a rumour that she is being advised by Ruth Richardson, Willis' unwavering arrogance in her monetary policy suggests this might be true.
This coalition exists to serve the interests of its donors and corporate sponsors, only.
and the owners/shareholders of the banks.
No, I'm seeing all this too!!! Arrogance . . . or simple ignorance, looking for any kind of a steer? She has no finance or economics background at all, worked as a kind of busy bee for John Key, then as lobbyist for Fonterra, then for the New Zealand Initiative - - an Atlas Network hatchling which disseminates neoliberal ideology.
No, I'm seeing all this too!!! Arrogance . . . or simple ignorance, looking for any kind of a steer? She has no finance or economics background at all, worked as a kind of busy bee for John Key, then as lobbyist for Fonterra, then for the New Zealand Initiative - - an Atlas Network hatchling which disseminates neoliberal ideology.
Am sure Ruth Richardson is in charge of our embarrassing pretend numbers person. Someone is operating her mouth. How do people say the required words without getting sick? I can't get my head around it.
Apparently they really do not care: about climate change, public service, housing, education or any of the other things that make a society tick. I really don't understand how they can be so impervious to anything or anyone else. They're not even good at what they say they will do.
Thanks for sharing the NZ’s over-reliance on roads for freight, article by Cécile L'Hermitte.
I wished Cécile also explored some of the benefits for drivers eg: reduction of heavy traffic volume, especially long haul, reduced road maintenance, more opportunities for bike lanes in more places that would also reduce general traffic volume & less diesel fumes in our streets.
I don't even think we know all the possible benefits that could come from this, even if the lead times on goods are slightly longer.
Did someone from the Hickey household go to the climate action campout on Denniston Plateau over Easter to see local weka?
We were on the plateau, but sadly didn’t know the protest was on.
A near miss sadly, but a great place to go.
Many thanks to all subscribers for pushing it over the 100 likes mark. I’ve now opened it up for full public reading, listening and sharing.