Oil hits US$102/b as Iran stops oil from leaving both Persian Gulf & Red Sea; NZ is missing an opportunity with its slow electrification; We should electrify everything ASAP before China's exports end
Absolutely bang on about the need for fast-paced transition. There is no sane logical reason why this would not be done. Additionally - as part of the electrification of transport - we should be gearing up for the domestic repurposing of aging vehicle batteries into domestic storage (recognising the age of imports from Japan - think Leafs, and the Tesla wave); accompanying this with regionally prioritised roll-out for both cold and heat; and accelerating V2x capabilities. Basically a policy that shifts wood/coal/LPG heating to electric heat pumps while simultaneously flattening winter peaks with distributed storage has a dual benefit of attacking both direct emissions and marginal generation assistance. Falling battery costs are the enabling variable at the present - but absolutely agree that can’t be guaranteed to continue. Nice, timely post!
Leaf batteries that are no longer suitable for use in an EV have at least another decade of life for use as stationary batteries. The open source Battery Emulator project has many local implementations.
Hi Bernard another factor is that mining by in large depends on diesel. The productivity of mines is dropping all over the world meaning more diesel to move more ore for less target material. This is going to add cost. We saw the low point of PV pricing last year and they are heading upwards. Raw material costs, particularly silver has a large impact on pricing.
Seems to be a few electric trucks around these days. Yes on costs might be rising of raw materials, but it's amazing how China has cut their costs. And they seem to like subsidizing stuff too. Be quite nice to get the benefit of those subsidies. Hand over fist.
Thank you for your persistence on this Bernard... Coincidentally, I was thinking about incentives for EV ownership the other day and built https://horsethecompanion.github.io/ev-charging-calculator/ - long-webpage-short, what it demonstrates is the Government could give a new EV owner FREE public fast-charging for a full year for well under $800 (including a reasonable margin for the EV charge companies): Buy an EV and get, for example, "5 years of free "fuel'" would sound pretty good to punters right now I imagine (and for far less public cost than we were spending on clean car "discounts" [sic]), plus it would indirectly subsidise rapid public charging infrastructure expansion. The beauty of the electrification transition is there are so many examples like that which are win:win:win for politicians, business, and the public, if we can just get a bunch of captured/nostalgic politicians to engage with them.
The RNZ article that is number 1 on the must reads about how we will live as storms get worse is remarkable for the almost complete absence of the words 'climate change'. It does record one person still not that sure climate change is happening.
Exemplifies the role of MSM in society doing the bidding of the ruling class and their state. In this case RNZ is terrified it will get disemboweled by the government if it moves to actually challenge the status quo. I flick through RNZ headlines each day to see what propaganda they want me swallow. Then seek the facts on Kaka and beyond.
Bernard, your Chorus makes so much sense. Of course. But I listened and watched with gritted teeth because there is just no way any of the current lot have the ability to act decisively in the interests of the wider country.
They are sycophants for Trump, they have surrendered their capacity for rational thought to the ridiculous ideology that has imprisoned them, or they have signed over any agency they might have had to the lobbyists that now sustain them.
I felt the same. This Coalition Government is too engrossed in disinformation, and keeping their jobs by being reelected to have their minds open to opportunity. Luxon only thinks growth, growth, growth. He entirety rubbished the Green Party's concerns re AI Data Centres, during his Morning Report spot this morning.
Thanks Neil. I get it. But I figure it's more fun to be open and positive and hopeful with the existing tech and economics, even if the politics is ugly. Sometimes things change. I often look at reasons why things can't happen. But it's hard to get up in the morning if my first and last thought is why things can't happen.
Gave a brief talk yesterday at a 200 people protest against LNG terminal here. Totally unnecessary. At least the local National. MP had the balls to turn up and tell us we need it! Typical for this 20th century 3 headed Taniwha who have deliberately Tanked the. Economy so we could “ Budget like a household” and Gentailers could still pick our pockets and transfer money to the “shareholder Government”
😁 After the Chch EQs the roads out of the city centre (I was central central city!) were virtually gridlocked and I WALKED past lines of cars wearing my backpack & dragging my wheeled laptop bag 😜 Fortunately I only had to walk about 7kms before meeting up with a relative in an unaffected suburb, but WHEN budget allows I want a compact (possibly 3-wheeled) e-bike as where I am now is Tsunami territory, and same thing happens with traffic gridlock 🤷 I might want to move faster from an approaching tsunami than walking pace 😱 (Also, having a 4wd was an advantage when things started moving again & roads were damaged in unexpected places - just for those who think they are superfluous in urban areas 😜)
It's nuts that I'm thinking more & more about this stuff. I even had a little bit of an existential crisis when driving home today. I live very close to my work, without traffic, it takes 9min, with regular school traffic, I'm approaching 0.5 an hour to get home, imagine a disaster with everyone eager to get home. Sounds like you've been there & done that, I'm glad you were ok, if not shaken up.
Question: Cindy, When you were navigating the city, of course there would have been the concrete & steel debris, what about smaller particles like glass etc(Anything I'm forgetting?)? What was it like to navigate through that? Please kindly pass your wisdom onto a Jaffa like me😊🙏
Smaller particles like glass weren't anything I recall on the roads except for footpaths etc, which quickly got cleared up, nor concrete & steel debris because they quite simply just closed those streets! The "unexpected" were huge potholes & broken lumpy surfaces on streets weren't closed by the Council that the GPS map sent you down when you were trying to go to a familar place but were completely flumoxxed when you encountered closed road after closed street & lost all feeling for where you were & what direction to take 😱 Have to say Google Maps was both a curse & a lifesaver - a curse because it didn't "know" which streets were closed, and a lifesaver because it re-calibrated again and again until you found your way 😅
We adopted road cones as symbols of the hard work our road crews were doing, & people put flowers in them in places 💐
Love your work and everything seems rational and makes sense to me. However, I don't really have enough knowledge in economics/finance/etc to be able to think too critically on these topics. It feels like I could end up in an echo chamber on this stuff. I have so many (older) colleagues that swear that blue is good, red is bad and in particular debt is bad. Could someone please point me to a similar publication that supports their opposite view/status quo so I can compare and hopefully discredit their arguments. Or is the point that there isn't a rational argument for that point of view just historic misguided rhetoric.
Apologies John, for the typical Millennial response of giving you a youtube link LOL
Richard Murphy who is from the UK and is very knowledgeable in this field. In this particular video he discusses MMT & Keynes economics. As you'll learn more, you'll start to realize that macro economics is deeply counter intuitive. I invite you to check out Richards youtube Channel, he even has a blog if you digest info better through reading than podcasts.
Another link for ya is Mariana Mazzucato from Mission Economics, she has a more international/geopolitical perspective with the stuff she does. Mazzucato specialises is working with governments from developing countries while advocating for progressive economic systems in developed countries.
They won't be different enough.... but they will be different.
Think of all the policies the CoC reversed when they got in there.
We do need drastic change and alas I don't see that in Labour. But they won't be the same, hopefully if enough people vote with their 💚💚💚, then they will have a majority(Shhh! I can live in dreams😉) to move forward with many of the changes we need.
🤷 Of course a Labour-led govt would be different in this space because the WORLD is different than in 2017-2023 🤔 Pretty confident that if the current situation with US-Iran & the resulting ongoing fuel crisis had happened under their watch, just like COVID the Labour-Greens would have been proactive with the situation, although advances in solar & wind tech since then make it easier now?
🤔 I'm of the "you are the govt NOW so stop promising & get on with it" with this coalition, and then the next govt can ramp up & expand as per THEIR policies 💪
I would like to know more about data centres. I agree that we need to slow down in regard to building more in NZ for the environmental concerns and costs. I don't understand the benefits and the so called employment opportunities. What are they? Is it the construction of them? In put of data? Luxon seemed to be an advocate for them when questioned this morning.
AI data centres are massive buildings full of computer trays to process functions for Artificial Intelligence. The race is on to build enough capacity to run these LLM large language models (software) which are just being developed to automate businesses and replace human beings. Karen Hao is a journalist who explains what they do and the risks.
Luxon thinks Building massive factories that use our land, power, and water are good because they will pay taxes but – citizens will be subsidising the extra power needed and our bills will go up. And our water will be impacted as well as our wetlands and our peace and quiet. They run 24 seven. Giant humming turbines use massive amounts ofwater to cool the computers
After construction there are only a few jobs (20-50) per facility. The buildings become quickly obsolete because the software is constantly outdated. So if everything goes bust the overseas developers will be able to leave the mess.
Thank you for your info and the link to Karen Hao - I've listened to her interview and I'm getting a clearer picture of what they are about and lots of negative aspects.
I think there’s a lot of scepticism that we can install wind and solar power which requires heavy equipment. Likely we would have to start building our own units with imported parts & silicon chips. Electricity could do the job. There’s a cherry farmer in Otago who has an electric tractor– I think he was the first. We’ve got to stop using diesel!
Yes, his whole enterprise runs on electric/solar, and he is the guy fronting Rewiring Aotearoa (whose policies National has largely stolen!). He is upfront that SOME industries & currently SOME heavy machinery needs diesel & can't yet be converted to electric either physically or economically, but if the rest of us are using electricity instead then those can have more reliable diesel supply because it isn't being divided across as many users 🤷
💯%% it’s a no brainer ….. or we waste the money helping the friends of the finance minister’s Daddy and push ahead with NCG instead of something renewable ?? 🤦♀️🤦♀️🤦♀️🤦♀️🤦♀️FFS
Absolutely bang on about the need for fast-paced transition. There is no sane logical reason why this would not be done. Additionally - as part of the electrification of transport - we should be gearing up for the domestic repurposing of aging vehicle batteries into domestic storage (recognising the age of imports from Japan - think Leafs, and the Tesla wave); accompanying this with regionally prioritised roll-out for both cold and heat; and accelerating V2x capabilities. Basically a policy that shifts wood/coal/LPG heating to electric heat pumps while simultaneously flattening winter peaks with distributed storage has a dual benefit of attacking both direct emissions and marginal generation assistance. Falling battery costs are the enabling variable at the present - but absolutely agree that can’t be guaranteed to continue. Nice, timely post!
Leaf batteries that are no longer suitable for use in an EV have at least another decade of life for use as stationary batteries. The open source Battery Emulator project has many local implementations.
Along with sun in sky your input lightens my day. Stay healthy.
Love to read about renewable energy it works.
My major cost monthly is the $40 lines charge. Quick look at last year is average at $16 to $20 per month if minus lines fee.
Hi Bernard another factor is that mining by in large depends on diesel. The productivity of mines is dropping all over the world meaning more diesel to move more ore for less target material. This is going to add cost. We saw the low point of PV pricing last year and they are heading upwards. Raw material costs, particularly silver has a large impact on pricing.
Seems to be a few electric trucks around these days. Yes on costs might be rising of raw materials, but it's amazing how China has cut their costs. And they seem to like subsidizing stuff too. Be quite nice to get the benefit of those subsidies. Hand over fist.
Simon Wilson’s invocation of Predatory Delay (the linked article) feels especially relevant to today’s centrepiece.
Thank you for your persistence on this Bernard... Coincidentally, I was thinking about incentives for EV ownership the other day and built https://horsethecompanion.github.io/ev-charging-calculator/ - long-webpage-short, what it demonstrates is the Government could give a new EV owner FREE public fast-charging for a full year for well under $800 (including a reasonable margin for the EV charge companies): Buy an EV and get, for example, "5 years of free "fuel'" would sound pretty good to punters right now I imagine (and for far less public cost than we were spending on clean car "discounts" [sic]), plus it would indirectly subsidise rapid public charging infrastructure expansion. The beauty of the electrification transition is there are so many examples like that which are win:win:win for politicians, business, and the public, if we can just get a bunch of captured/nostalgic politicians to engage with them.
Great link Tim. Fascinating. Thanks.
I 100% support you - NZ should electrify everything ASAP.
The RNZ article that is number 1 on the must reads about how we will live as storms get worse is remarkable for the almost complete absence of the words 'climate change'. It does record one person still not that sure climate change is happening.
Exemplifies the role of MSM in society doing the bidding of the ruling class and their state. In this case RNZ is terrified it will get disemboweled by the government if it moves to actually challenge the status quo. I flick through RNZ headlines each day to see what propaganda they want me swallow. Then seek the facts on Kaka and beyond.
Bernard, your Chorus makes so much sense. Of course. But I listened and watched with gritted teeth because there is just no way any of the current lot have the ability to act decisively in the interests of the wider country.
They are sycophants for Trump, they have surrendered their capacity for rational thought to the ridiculous ideology that has imprisoned them, or they have signed over any agency they might have had to the lobbyists that now sustain them.
Grrrr!
I felt the same. This Coalition Government is too engrossed in disinformation, and keeping their jobs by being reelected to have their minds open to opportunity. Luxon only thinks growth, growth, growth. He entirety rubbished the Green Party's concerns re AI Data Centres, during his Morning Report spot this morning.
Winston Peters sticking his head up Trump's arse didn't work very well with his current tariff tantrum
And now all he sees is shit.
Thanks Neil. I get it. But I figure it's more fun to be open and positive and hopeful with the existing tech and economics, even if the politics is ugly. Sometimes things change. I often look at reasons why things can't happen. But it's hard to get up in the morning if my first and last thought is why things can't happen.
Absolutely agree Bernard,
Gave a brief talk yesterday at a 200 people protest against LNG terminal here. Totally unnecessary. At least the local National. MP had the balls to turn up and tell us we need it! Typical for this 20th century 3 headed Taniwha who have deliberately Tanked the. Economy so we could “ Budget like a household” and Gentailers could still pick our pockets and transfer money to the “shareholder Government”
Patrick Medlicott
hi Bernard,
that $1.5B/month figure on fossil fuel imports???
i had to rewind your video to make sure I heard that correctly.
in unrelated news, did you know it's easier to navigate through a city after a disaster, on a bike instead of a car?....
🫠👍
😁 After the Chch EQs the roads out of the city centre (I was central central city!) were virtually gridlocked and I WALKED past lines of cars wearing my backpack & dragging my wheeled laptop bag 😜 Fortunately I only had to walk about 7kms before meeting up with a relative in an unaffected suburb, but WHEN budget allows I want a compact (possibly 3-wheeled) e-bike as where I am now is Tsunami territory, and same thing happens with traffic gridlock 🤷 I might want to move faster from an approaching tsunami than walking pace 😱 (Also, having a 4wd was an advantage when things started moving again & roads were damaged in unexpected places - just for those who think they are superfluous in urban areas 😜)
It's nuts that I'm thinking more & more about this stuff. I even had a little bit of an existential crisis when driving home today. I live very close to my work, without traffic, it takes 9min, with regular school traffic, I'm approaching 0.5 an hour to get home, imagine a disaster with everyone eager to get home. Sounds like you've been there & done that, I'm glad you were ok, if not shaken up.
Question: Cindy, When you were navigating the city, of course there would have been the concrete & steel debris, what about smaller particles like glass etc(Anything I'm forgetting?)? What was it like to navigate through that? Please kindly pass your wisdom onto a Jaffa like me😊🙏
Smaller particles like glass weren't anything I recall on the roads except for footpaths etc, which quickly got cleared up, nor concrete & steel debris because they quite simply just closed those streets! The "unexpected" were huge potholes & broken lumpy surfaces on streets weren't closed by the Council that the GPS map sent you down when you were trying to go to a familar place but were completely flumoxxed when you encountered closed road after closed street & lost all feeling for where you were & what direction to take 😱 Have to say Google Maps was both a curse & a lifesaver - a curse because it didn't "know" which streets were closed, and a lifesaver because it re-calibrated again and again until you found your way 😅
We adopted road cones as symbols of the hard work our road crews were doing, & people put flowers in them in places 💐
Oh wow, thanks for sharing that perspective. Especially regarding road closures, bumps & pot holes.
That was a really cool way to acknowledge the hard work of the road workers too. Appreciate this Cindy 🙏🙏🙏
Indeed. I have a bike or two. And here's the stats on the $1.5 billion. https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/overseas-merchandise-trade-june-2026/
Appreciate your opening this up immediately Bernard.
Hi Bernard and all,
Love your work and everything seems rational and makes sense to me. However, I don't really have enough knowledge in economics/finance/etc to be able to think too critically on these topics. It feels like I could end up in an echo chamber on this stuff. I have so many (older) colleagues that swear that blue is good, red is bad and in particular debt is bad. Could someone please point me to a similar publication that supports their opposite view/status quo so I can compare and hopefully discredit their arguments. Or is the point that there isn't a rational argument for that point of view just historic misguided rhetoric.
Hopefully thank in advance!
He is a free The Kaka special from Bernard last week. It would be as good as any starting point as any for your colleagues:
https://thekaka.substack.com/p/the-only-thing-nz-has-to-fear-isfear?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=lnb76
Apologies John, for the typical Millennial response of giving you a youtube link LOL
Richard Murphy who is from the UK and is very knowledgeable in this field. In this particular video he discusses MMT & Keynes economics. As you'll learn more, you'll start to realize that macro economics is deeply counter intuitive. I invite you to check out Richards youtube Channel, he even has a blog if you digest info better through reading than podcasts.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZGFpBU37riM
Another link for ya is Mariana Mazzucato from Mission Economics, she has a more international/geopolitical perspective with the stuff she does. Mazzucato specialises is working with governments from developing countries while advocating for progressive economic systems in developed countries.
https://marianamazzucato.substack.com/
All the best, Mate 😊🙏
Before electrifying first elect a different government!
Do you think a Labour-led one would be different? Not much happened on this in the 2017-2023 term.
They won't be different enough.... but they will be different.
Think of all the policies the CoC reversed when they got in there.
We do need drastic change and alas I don't see that in Labour. But they won't be the same, hopefully if enough people vote with their 💚💚💚, then they will have a majority(Shhh! I can live in dreams😉) to move forward with many of the changes we need.
🤷 Of course a Labour-led govt would be different in this space because the WORLD is different than in 2017-2023 🤔 Pretty confident that if the current situation with US-Iran & the resulting ongoing fuel crisis had happened under their watch, just like COVID the Labour-Greens would have been proactive with the situation, although advances in solar & wind tech since then make it easier now?
🤔 I'm of the "you are the govt NOW so stop promising & get on with it" with this coalition, and then the next govt can ramp up & expand as per THEIR policies 💪
Mining, trucking, and heavy earth moving vehicles are available https://electronsx.com/electric-heavy-equipment.html
I don't know how I feel about this...😵💫👌
I would like to know more about data centres. I agree that we need to slow down in regard to building more in NZ for the environmental concerns and costs. I don't understand the benefits and the so called employment opportunities. What are they? Is it the construction of them? In put of data? Luxon seemed to be an advocate for them when questioned this morning.
AI data centres are massive buildings full of computer trays to process functions for Artificial Intelligence. The race is on to build enough capacity to run these LLM large language models (software) which are just being developed to automate businesses and replace human beings. Karen Hao is a journalist who explains what they do and the risks.
Luxon thinks Building massive factories that use our land, power, and water are good because they will pay taxes but – citizens will be subsidising the extra power needed and our bills will go up. And our water will be impacted as well as our wetlands and our peace and quiet. They run 24 seven. Giant humming turbines use massive amounts ofwater to cool the computers
After construction there are only a few jobs (20-50) per facility. The buildings become quickly obsolete because the software is constantly outdated. So if everything goes bust the overseas developers will be able to leave the mess.
https://podcasts.apple.com/nz/podcast/the-mishal-husain-show/id1845840408?i=1000778131295
Thank you for your info and the link to Karen Hao - I've listened to her interview and I'm getting a clearer picture of what they are about and lots of negative aspects.
I think there’s a lot of scepticism that we can install wind and solar power which requires heavy equipment. Likely we would have to start building our own units with imported parts & silicon chips. Electricity could do the job. There’s a cherry farmer in Otago who has an electric tractor– I think he was the first. We’ve got to stop using diesel!
Yes, his whole enterprise runs on electric/solar, and he is the guy fronting Rewiring Aotearoa (whose policies National has largely stolen!). He is upfront that SOME industries & currently SOME heavy machinery needs diesel & can't yet be converted to electric either physically or economically, but if the rest of us are using electricity instead then those can have more reliable diesel supply because it isn't being divided across as many users 🤷
https://youtu.be/A6zUtnDurww?si=bN0ct1Rowj89ffCG
💯%% it’s a no brainer ….. or we waste the money helping the friends of the finance minister’s Daddy and push ahead with NCG instead of something renewable ?? 🤦♀️🤦♀️🤦♀️🤦♀️🤦♀️FFS
Thank you Bernard. How do we get our politicians to listen!!!