Whats news to me this morning

Fed stays loose and sees no rate hikes until 2024; Cabinet set to decide on Trans-Tasman travel bubble on Monday for early-April start; Carterton tells residents to boil water until further notice

TLDR: Interest rates are likely to stay low for longer, thanks to the US Federal Reserve signalling this morning it won’t increase its key short term interest rate from its current 0.25% level until 2024 at least. Meanwhile, it plans to keep printing US$120b a month to buy bonds to drag down on market interest rates.

For now, the Fed-fighting inflationistas are facing a wall of money printing to keep bond prices high and yields low. The question is for how long. The famed ‘dot plot’ of FOMC member forecasts shows the median expectation (dotted line in chart) is still for no rate hikes through until 2024. But three members saw a hike next year and seven of the 18 saw a hike by 2023, up from five in the December decision. (See chart below)

Elsewhere, the drums are beating for a travel bubble with Australia, which could be announced as early as after next Monday’s cabinet meeting, with travel able to start by early April.

Briefly in our political economy

bernardchickeysubscribers @bernardchickey2

Finally, it looks like we could have an Australasian travel bubble within two to three weeks, if cabinet approves this idea on Monday.

stuff.co.nzTrans-Tasman bubble expected to start by the middle of AprilANALYSIS: Stuff understands a bubble proposal could go to Cabinet by Monday and be announced next week, to start by the middle of April.

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

Housing the number one concern in the latest @IpsosMORI survey of 1,000 NZers done in mid Feb and highest on record. ipsos.com/sites/default/…

Wellington Region Emergency Management Office @WREMOinfo

URGENT BOIL WATER NOTICE: CARTERTON. Carterton District Council has reissued a boil water notice and advises all Carterton urban residents to boil all water until further notice. For more info see the link below:

cdc.govt.nzBOIL WATER NOTICE 17 MARCH 2021 - FAQS | Carterton District CouncilUPDATED 3pm 17 March 2021 Carterton District Council has reissued a boil water notice after receiving a low-level E. coli sample reading at 1.30pm Wednesday. This will remain in place until further…

Stuff @NZStuff

$500m Shelly Bay development clears significant hurdle in High Court

dlvr.it$500m Shelly Bay development clears significant hurdle in High CourtThe court decision clears a major hurdle out of the way for the Wellington development.

In the global political economy

bernardchickeysubscribers @bernardchickey2

A big deal for global phone/telco sectors, and shows how much stress there is in global supply chains. Chips the key ingredient in just about all manufacturing supply chains now, and Samsung makes its own chips. Also, the Texas ice storm shut its US plant.

bbc.comChip shortage: Samsung warns Galaxy Note may be delayedThere is a “serious imbalance” in the supply and demand of chips, the co-chief executive says.

bernardchickeysubscribers @bernardchickey2

The world of tech and trade is being carved up into blocs. Will travel be carved up too? Could be via the use of vaccine passports. Here's the EU version.

bbc.comCovid: EU plans rollout of travel certificate before summerIt will permit travel by those vaccinated, or who have tested negative or recently recovered.

bernardchickeysubscribers @bernardchickey2

Post the @StuffCircuit reporting this week on China's oppression of Uighurs in Xinjiang, this is becoming a growing issue for corporates to think about.

bbc.comUighur abuse: MPs criticise companies over China forced labourThe business committee says firms should face sanctions if they fail to change.

bernardchickeysubscribers @bernardchickey2

So Uber caved in the UK overnight. Will it do the same elsewhere? If so, good news for wages in the gig economy and by implication another inflationary sign. I'll believe in any turnaround in global wage deflation though when I see the 'whites of its eyes'

bbc.comUber ‘willing to change’ as drivers get minimum wage, holiday pay and pensionsIt comes after a court ruling on driver status and could have consequences across the gig economy.

DealBook @dealbook

Some 90 million stimulus payments are to be delivered via direct deposit today. 

nyti.msWhere’s My Stimulus Payment? Maybe in Your Account. (Finally!)The latest round of payments are the biggest yet, and open to more kinds of dependents. But some hassles encountered in past rounds could show up again, and maybe new ones, too.

Useful bits and pieces

bernardchickeysubscribers @bernardchickey2

This is useful from the @minhealthnz on the vaccine rollout. I love a good chart. health.govt.nz/system/files/d…

Threads worth unravelling

Shaan Puri @ShaanVP

Content creators are happy. But retention doesn't improve. Why not? You have a bad case of The Interesting-ness Problem. When a user opens an app (IG, youtube, TikTok) they need juicy content within 7 seconds (or they bounce) This is the "Interesting-ness" problem.

Thomas Rid @RidT

Overarching takeaway: Russian intelligence actors and proxies were far more prolific, more aggressive, and more risk-taking in the 2020 election cycle than many assumed, myself included. They were also more covert and more disciplined than in 2016. Expect more.

Some fun things

Investing.com @Investingcom

*FED DOT PLOT SHOWS NO RATE HIKES THROUGH 2023

Newshub @NewshubNZ

Spotted: A huge goat wearing a fedora and New Zealand flag bit.ly/3vvyJcF #AmericasCup

Paul Bronks @SlenderSherbet

"here's a little song i wrote called 'starving to death' and it goes like this...." 🔊🆙 📹: TikTok user kotpersik27

Robin Wigglesworth @RobinWigg

Jay-Pow tl;dr