Unemployment rate up to 11-year high of 5.6%; Underutilisation rate up to 13-year high of 13.8%; Youth underutilisation up by 21,500 in a year to 37% of youth workforce; Yet 111,000 work visas granted
What I find absolutely concerning is the number of young people standing in the unemployment line. Where are the projects to assist them? Where are the temporary jobs to engage them in our communities and make where we live better places? If we contemplate the question are all the jobs done, we have to reply, no. So where is the political discussion by the parties standing for parliament telling us how they propose to address this scourge on our society?
Absolutely spot on. At least previous governments implemented initiatives designed to address this "scourge" as you put it. Unfortunately, this current government couldn't give a stuff - they're sorted and, if Luxon's diatribe last week is anything to go by - you're on your own.
I worry too about the loss of jobs for young people. An interesting fact in today’s numbers. 60% of the jobs growth went to those over the age of 65, who are on a universal basic income and get to keep it without any means testing.
Labour are absolutely going to peg their election hopes to this, aren't they. Rather than to having policies or a leader people would cross the road to vote for.
Completely agree. One would think a party called "Labour" would be swamped with young, unemployed people ensuring they enrol and vote (for Labour) in the upcoming election.
Yet, as Bernard's post yesterday pointed out "Enrolment for 18-24s slumps to 53%", young people do the exact opposite... they do not believe their vote counts / won't change anything.
There should be the biggest alarm bells ever produced ringing non-stop... not just, but mainly, in the Labour party.
Failed government. Failed Minister of Finance. Minister Willis promised economic improvement, said Labour had driven the economy into a ditch. Actually given the pandemic and two cyclones that rendered two regions looking like moonscapes, they did really well. This government has had no challenges of a similar scale and has left us way worse off than we were. Austerity does not work. Neo liberal economics does not work. Vote them out.
A country that cannot look after its own people - especially our young people - is what we have become under this financially illiterate Government. Their focus seems to be on ensuring we are structurally a very low wage economy.
Thanks Bernard for your commentary. It is so appreciated
Is there a subscription service for early access to stats nz releases so we can get ahead of the market and make some side cash to keep ahead of the weakening labour market?
that’s because governments put corporations well ahead of the public now. Sick of hearing about the big electricity gentailers, the supermarket duopoly, the record profits by the big banks year after year, the oil company price gauging. It never changes, just gets worse. No wonder no one gives a shit about voting anymore. There are no serious contenders. Trumpism lite is everywhere. Crime cronyism and corruption win the day and what are you going to do little fella?
How many young people are being scarred by this “Budget like a household lot” Richard Murphy a UK commentator and accountant calls it “Economic Gaslighting” I would call it Lying to protect the Rich Pricks in Government. Idiots believe this message because it seems like “common Sense” but is plain wrong. Suggest readers google him. He produces simple A4 page explanations of economics 101 which are from UK but apply here.
What's wrong with this picture? It does NOT compute. Why are we issuing 111,000 work visas when we have a record high unemployment rate of 5.6%? Is this government following Voodoo economics? Duhhhhhh. JG
All of this was entirely predictable. Govt surpluses must be offset by either surplus balances in trade ( ie current acct surplus) or a deficit in the private sector, because the sectoral balances are a zero sum game. We havent had a current acct surplus in 30 years, so the private sector bears the cost of govts attempting to make a surplus( which they wont achieve). Second the RBNZ is working as designed. Its independence is designed to allow it to use interest rates to discipline the labour market. as the theory says that inflation is driven by wage demands (Note the historic destruction of the trade union movement by the same political ideology. Until David Seymour changed the banks TOR ( so much for the much vaunted independence), unemployment was supposed to be considered by the Monetary Policy Committee. Not any more. The theory that high rates will tame inflation has no empirical support. In short we are being ruled by economic incompetents who are more focussed on their ideology , which they have proceeded to apply in a most undemocratic way. The economy might recover, but I fear the losses incurred by the attack on our democracy may be locked in.
There are probably more than 100 facially wrong decisions taken, all to our economic detriment. Some were large (cancelling Ferries and scrapping Dunedin Hospital plan), some were smaller and more spiteful (school lunches and disestablishment of Callahan), but nothing was as disasterous as the landlord tax changes. Here's the paper that explains why: https://www.nber.org/papers/w3530
Reading a certain newspaper’s comment section is tough. There is still significant belief that this was caused by labour’s Covid spend and/or it would have been worse under labour/greens
I always wondered, why there are no proper (labour) strikes here in NZ. There are significantly more in Australia, specially in the building, healthcare and education sector. Stronger unions => higher income in Australia?
Why not a full general strike?
I assume the high private debt stops people from considering a full blown strike… high pressure to pay interest (mortgage, car loan).
Well NZPFU has been striking for 50 days, and only now is the government starting to realize what an absolute shambles FENZ has become. But aside from Tim Costley, nobody in Government seems to think it really matters whether Dunedin,or ChCh or especially Wellington burn to the ground. If a burning building wasn't in the budget read out last month, it's not a priority I guess.
Very good point, Michael. Completely forgot about the firefighters. I was only thinking of big marches through town closing down everything, like a general strike. I did see them driving through Wellington with lots of messages on their tanks(?) (they’re probably not allowed to completely stop working). My partner did some work at FENZ, which by the sound of it didn’t go well…
When I grew up, many decades ago, jobs like firefighters, teachers, doctors and nurses where considered the most important, most trustworthy, most aspiring out of all… how times changed. No wonder everything goes downhill.
What I find absolutely concerning is the number of young people standing in the unemployment line. Where are the projects to assist them? Where are the temporary jobs to engage them in our communities and make where we live better places? If we contemplate the question are all the jobs done, we have to reply, no. So where is the political discussion by the parties standing for parliament telling us how they propose to address this scourge on our society?
Absolutely spot on. At least previous governments implemented initiatives designed to address this "scourge" as you put it. Unfortunately, this current government couldn't give a stuff - they're sorted and, if Luxon's diatribe last week is anything to go by - you're on your own.
Luxon’s told us: business owners have to start acting like grown-ups. The ball’s in their court not the government’s court.
I worry too about the loss of jobs for young people. An interesting fact in today’s numbers. 60% of the jobs growth went to those over the age of 65, who are on a universal basic income and get to keep it without any means testing.
Bernard the over 65s job growth might reflect also just how hard it is to manage on government super.
Labour are absolutely going to peg their election hopes to this, aren't they. Rather than to having policies or a leader people would cross the road to vote for.
Completely agree. One would think a party called "Labour" would be swamped with young, unemployed people ensuring they enrol and vote (for Labour) in the upcoming election.
Yet, as Bernard's post yesterday pointed out "Enrolment for 18-24s slumps to 53%", young people do the exact opposite... they do not believe their vote counts / won't change anything.
There should be the biggest alarm bells ever produced ringing non-stop... not just, but mainly, in the Labour party.
Failed government. Failed Minister of Finance. Minister Willis promised economic improvement, said Labour had driven the economy into a ditch. Actually given the pandemic and two cyclones that rendered two regions looking like moonscapes, they did really well. This government has had no challenges of a similar scale and has left us way worse off than we were. Austerity does not work. Neo liberal economics does not work. Vote them out.
Not to mention the Kaikōura earthquake as well.
Terrible news but unsurprising.
A country that cannot look after its own people - especially our young people - is what we have become under this financially illiterate Government. Their focus seems to be on ensuring we are structurally a very low wage economy.
Thanks Bernard for your commentary. It is so appreciated
Is there a subscription service for early access to stats nz releases so we can get ahead of the market and make some side cash to keep ahead of the weakening labour market?
The reserve banks mandate is solely inflation now. It’s at 4.1% if you are implying cost of living isn’t an issue for kiwis you’re out to lunch.
Although inflation <> cost of living issues. We have lived through periods of inflation that were higher but life was more affordable.
that’s because governments put corporations well ahead of the public now. Sick of hearing about the big electricity gentailers, the supermarket duopoly, the record profits by the big banks year after year, the oil company price gauging. It never changes, just gets worse. No wonder no one gives a shit about voting anymore. There are no serious contenders. Trumpism lite is everywhere. Crime cronyism and corruption win the day and what are you going to do little fella?
Well Government is doing its best for its donors, high unemployment and drive down wages perfect return. What a great CEO they have.
The government has got this. Those young unemployed on Job Seekers Benefit - they are being given back to their low income families to support.
It is as if this government read up on the Mother of All Budgets and said 'hold my beer' ...
Roy Morgan has National around 32%, Labour on 25%.
Either the poll is rigged or we live in a country full of arseholes
Maybe both!
Yes, I was about to say the same thing.
I didn't think of that. You could be right about that.
Hi Bernard,
How many young people are being scarred by this “Budget like a household lot” Richard Murphy a UK commentator and accountant calls it “Economic Gaslighting” I would call it Lying to protect the Rich Pricks in Government. Idiots believe this message because it seems like “common Sense” but is plain wrong. Suggest readers google him. He produces simple A4 page explanations of economics 101 which are from UK but apply here.
Keep up the good work.
Patrick Medlicott
He also has some good YT explainers
What's wrong with this picture? It does NOT compute. Why are we issuing 111,000 work visas when we have a record high unemployment rate of 5.6%? Is this government following Voodoo economics? Duhhhhhh. JG
My guess:
Some are linked to work a NZer doesn’t really want to do… like RSE related farming work.
Some are linked to work that requires qualifications the young people do not have
Some might be linked to overseas students (not sure how that works)
I do think the government should invest more in apprenticeship, universities and “night classes” that allow adults to upskill.
If the Peters fiasco fashioned a lid for the coffin, the unemployment figures put a nail in it.
I really hope so
All of this was entirely predictable. Govt surpluses must be offset by either surplus balances in trade ( ie current acct surplus) or a deficit in the private sector, because the sectoral balances are a zero sum game. We havent had a current acct surplus in 30 years, so the private sector bears the cost of govts attempting to make a surplus( which they wont achieve). Second the RBNZ is working as designed. Its independence is designed to allow it to use interest rates to discipline the labour market. as the theory says that inflation is driven by wage demands (Note the historic destruction of the trade union movement by the same political ideology. Until David Seymour changed the banks TOR ( so much for the much vaunted independence), unemployment was supposed to be considered by the Monetary Policy Committee. Not any more. The theory that high rates will tame inflation has no empirical support. In short we are being ruled by economic incompetents who are more focussed on their ideology , which they have proceeded to apply in a most undemocratic way. The economy might recover, but I fear the losses incurred by the attack on our democracy may be locked in.
And nobody saw this coming?.....
If they didn't they are incompetent, and if they are competent, then it was planned.
There are probably more than 100 facially wrong decisions taken, all to our economic detriment. Some were large (cancelling Ferries and scrapping Dunedin Hospital plan), some were smaller and more spiteful (school lunches and disestablishment of Callahan), but nothing was as disasterous as the landlord tax changes. Here's the paper that explains why: https://www.nber.org/papers/w3530
Reading a certain newspaper’s comment section is tough. There is still significant belief that this was caused by labour’s Covid spend and/or it would have been worse under labour/greens
Yep, we are undoubtedly in a bubble here, but the level of awareness from the average voter is worrying.
Alright team, anyone up for some Class War yet? ...Singing the songs of angry men (and perhaps some other, less theatrical, things)?
I always wondered, why there are no proper (labour) strikes here in NZ. There are significantly more in Australia, specially in the building, healthcare and education sector. Stronger unions => higher income in Australia?
Why not a full general strike?
I assume the high private debt stops people from considering a full blown strike… high pressure to pay interest (mortgage, car loan).
Well NZPFU has been striking for 50 days, and only now is the government starting to realize what an absolute shambles FENZ has become. But aside from Tim Costley, nobody in Government seems to think it really matters whether Dunedin,or ChCh or especially Wellington burn to the ground. If a burning building wasn't in the budget read out last month, it's not a priority I guess.
Very good point, Michael. Completely forgot about the firefighters. I was only thinking of big marches through town closing down everything, like a general strike. I did see them driving through Wellington with lots of messages on their tanks(?) (they’re probably not allowed to completely stop working). My partner did some work at FENZ, which by the sound of it didn’t go well…
When I grew up, many decades ago, jobs like firefighters, teachers, doctors and nurses where considered the most important, most trustworthy, most aspiring out of all… how times changed. No wonder everything goes downhill.