Trump's tariffs unleash markets hell; China retaliates in kind; But NZ beef & wine exporters may do better in US & China; Compass has $210m of Govt contracts; Developers salivate over KO land
On the ferries: are they ‘clever’ and future proofed? Can rail easily and efficiently roll on and off? (I’m sure this has been asked and answered, but I’ve had my head underwater, and doing lots of swimming to avoid some of the madness).
Apparently they will each carry 40 rail wagons on railway lines in the deck compared to 28 on the only current ferry with railway lines. This means a complete train of wagons may be shunted on the vessel, which obviates off loading containers onto trailers to be driven on.
Thank you Bernard! Clear and helpful. I'm uncomfortable that New Zealand might win at the expense of other economies. I also noticed you saying England, Aus and NZ have less harsh tarrifs. I'm curious and a little concerned at why the US might be favouring us.
Am I the only one listening and thinking I'd rather send lean ground beef to the U.S. than have more of their people come here as tourists and have our lowest paid worker have to be nice to them? (Sorry for the spiral into such a negative sentiment about individual people - but groups of (often-retired) U.S. tourists can be hard work to be around.)
I loved the video "20 Lessons on tyranny", Bernard. It's worth everyone making a cup of tea/coffee and quietly reflecting on the powerful message contained in it. Thanks for the link.
About the Waikato Solar farm, the problem with sharing company press releases is what they don't mention. Like the fact that solar is intermittent and you can claim to power 35k houses except they all use electricity 24.7 not just when sun shines. The release doesn't mention the capacity factor that is around 6% in winter so it will "power" only 14k houses in winter. AND the solar energy is free but the infrastructure is far from free, it's all made with fossils energy from mining to installation and the emissions and energy are loaded on country of manufacture. AND a gentle reminder that our NZ total energy consumption is 29% "renewable" as this has not changed appreciably since at least 1990. AND how much of the new renewable will be soaked up by datacentres, bitcoin and AI and get us nowhere like all the other recent "renewable" that has just added not displaced anything
Exactly. Renewables haven't even made a dent in the fossil aspect of global primary energy consumption (you can't discount manufacturing supply chain emissions in that analysis!) because they're efficiency gains for a fossil system. And that means: more energy to do more stuff.
Furthermore, because of thermal efficiency limitations, every 1 unit of 'renewables' should be replacing 2.5 units of fossil at the primary energy level. Not even a dent.
US hegemony was already on the decline, to maintain that position they needed to change something. In my view this trade war is a desperate 'last gasp' for the US. Based on historical precedents for periods of changing world order these are dangerous times
It seems to me that a system is flawed if the actions of one person can destroy that system (in this case by 'detonating a neutron bomb'). I am definitely not an expert, and I am definitely not a fan of the current US Administration, but I will be interested to see how capitalism resolves the current situation. Creative destruction has enabled capitalism to successfully re-shape itself during prior times of crisis - how will capitalism get itself out of its current bind?
Anyone keen on getting a public buying group together to buy that KO land? For less than the price of one coffee per fortnight per person, we could collectively own 900-odd houses a year - reducing homelessness, crime, and housing market inflation. All seems pretty sensible to me...
Determining NZ might "win" from this so prematurely is the exact hubris which has made our democracy weaker over the last few decades. New Zealand is weaker because of this, and more vulnerable than it has been in quite some time.
For some reason Trump’s ChatGPT tariff calculations have omitted services like Facebook, Google et al. Which have jointly eviscerated our advertising and media. I wondered why?
Assuming that we'll get much money from American tourists seems like a poor bet given that Trump and Musk's actions will make most American significantly poorer. Overseas travel is a luxury they'll decide they can't afford.
This packs a punch! Great work Bernard.
On the ferries: are they ‘clever’ and future proofed? Can rail easily and efficiently roll on and off? (I’m sure this has been asked and answered, but I’ve had my head underwater, and doing lots of swimming to avoid some of the madness).
Apparently they will each carry 40 rail wagons on railway lines in the deck compared to 28 on the only current ferry with railway lines. This means a complete train of wagons may be shunted on the vessel, which obviates off loading containers onto trailers to be driven on.
Thanks Bernard. A quick and informative update, with some positivity for NZ.
Looks like the link to the Simon Wilson article in 'pick n mix' is pointing to the KO story above.
Here is the correct link - It's Premium so paywalled.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/auckland-transports-new-targets-more-spending-on-roads-less-on-public-transport-and-cycling/X7D7IDJFFBAGNB7BK5UFW2JR64/
Thanks Grant.
Sorry Kit. And thanks Grant.
Thank you Bernard! Clear and helpful. I'm uncomfortable that New Zealand might win at the expense of other economies. I also noticed you saying England, Aus and NZ have less harsh tarrifs. I'm curious and a little concerned at why the US might be favouring us.
Comforting Bernard, trying to be optimistic butunfortunately the contraction of every other smaller export market is a big concern.
Am I the only one listening and thinking I'd rather send lean ground beef to the U.S. than have more of their people come here as tourists and have our lowest paid worker have to be nice to them? (Sorry for the spiral into such a negative sentiment about individual people - but groups of (often-retired) U.S. tourists can be hard work to be around.)
I suspect the marginal benefits to NZ you refer to will be swamped by the impact of a global slowdown.
Perhaps NZ border staff should demand to see US tourists social media postings before deciding they can be allowed into the country?
Before they can be allowed to purchase land in our country - would be my bottom line.
I loved the video "20 Lessons on tyranny", Bernard. It's worth everyone making a cup of tea/coffee and quietly reflecting on the powerful message contained in it. Thanks for the link.
About the Waikato Solar farm, the problem with sharing company press releases is what they don't mention. Like the fact that solar is intermittent and you can claim to power 35k houses except they all use electricity 24.7 not just when sun shines. The release doesn't mention the capacity factor that is around 6% in winter so it will "power" only 14k houses in winter. AND the solar energy is free but the infrastructure is far from free, it's all made with fossils energy from mining to installation and the emissions and energy are loaded on country of manufacture. AND a gentle reminder that our NZ total energy consumption is 29% "renewable" as this has not changed appreciably since at least 1990. AND how much of the new renewable will be soaked up by datacentres, bitcoin and AI and get us nowhere like all the other recent "renewable" that has just added not displaced anything
Exactly. Renewables haven't even made a dent in the fossil aspect of global primary energy consumption (you can't discount manufacturing supply chain emissions in that analysis!) because they're efficiency gains for a fossil system. And that means: more energy to do more stuff.
Furthermore, because of thermal efficiency limitations, every 1 unit of 'renewables' should be replacing 2.5 units of fossil at the primary energy level. Not even a dent.
US hegemony was already on the decline, to maintain that position they needed to change something. In my view this trade war is a desperate 'last gasp' for the US. Based on historical precedents for periods of changing world order these are dangerous times
I think the Te Whatu Ora report is complete BS - just ask the Drs on the frontline.
It seems to me that a system is flawed if the actions of one person can destroy that system (in this case by 'detonating a neutron bomb'). I am definitely not an expert, and I am definitely not a fan of the current US Administration, but I will be interested to see how capitalism resolves the current situation. Creative destruction has enabled capitalism to successfully re-shape itself during prior times of crisis - how will capitalism get itself out of its current bind?
Anyone keen on getting a public buying group together to buy that KO land? For less than the price of one coffee per fortnight per person, we could collectively own 900-odd houses a year - reducing homelessness, crime, and housing market inflation. All seems pretty sensible to me...
I would! I'm just wondering why isn't this land offered to be gifted back to iwi.
So would I
Determining NZ might "win" from this so prematurely is the exact hubris which has made our democracy weaker over the last few decades. New Zealand is weaker because of this, and more vulnerable than it has been in quite some time.
I was thinking the same thing. Look for the price of our beef products to shoot up in the supermarkets.
I think Kiwis are underestimating how badly this will affect us.
Keeping in mind the consistent under investment in infrastructure(for decades) has made us overall, less resilient.
For some reason Trump’s ChatGPT tariff calculations have omitted services like Facebook, Google et al. Which have jointly eviscerated our advertising and media. I wondered why?
Assuming that we'll get much money from American tourists seems like a poor bet given that Trump and Musk's actions will make most American significantly poorer. Overseas travel is a luxury they'll decide they can't afford.