Thursday's Early Bird: Top News; Scoops; Deep-Dives; My Picks n' Mixes; Front Pages & Cartoons

Willis touts rate hike as sign of success, with two more expected before Nov 7; Strait of Hormuz ceasefire 'over,' says Trump; Labour's solar offer bigger than National's; Shocking ED wait death

Here’s my curation of the day’s top news, analysis, commentary, charts and cartoons from around Aotearoa and elsewhere about our political economy around housing, climate and poverty. This is only published in full for paying subscribers. Briefly, in summary:

• Nicola Willis argued yesterday’s rate hike was a sign of economic confidence from the Reserve Bank. Another two rate hikes are expected before the election, which some doubt will inspire voter confidence¹.

• Iran and the United States traded military strikes overnight, while Donald Trump said talks to re-open the Strait of Hormuz were “over.²” Oil prices rose as much as 8.9% early this morning, with Brent crude briefly topping US$80/barrel.

• Labour yesterday pledged $160 million worth of subsidies and grants if elected to encourage household and community adoption of solar panels and batteries, which was more than National’s proposals costing $7 million. The Greens proposed the pre-Election legislation of the Ratepayers Assistance Scheme (RAS) policy that both National and Labour agree on³.

• This story is a shocking example of the health infrastructure and staffing crises crippling many of our hospitals ahead of the election. Jimmy Ellingham reported for RNZ⁴ last night about a mother of five who was told she had to wait 25 hours to be seen at Palmerston North’s Hospital, so she decided to drive to Hastings. She died in the car seat next to her daughter, who was driving her there.

• Earth Sciences NZ research⁵ published by Te Waihanga-Infrastructure Commission this morning estimates annual flood damage to infrastructure and coastal property due to climate change could increase 80% to $765 million a year by 2075.

• The Government is considering forcing the Waikato Regional Council to drop its Plan Change One requirements for farmers to seek resource consents, Charlotte Graham reports this morning on the front page of the The Waikato Times⁶.

Please join us as a paying subscriber to get my full daily curation of the news, analysis, commentary, links, charts, front pages and cartoons below, and to support this work I do sorting the signal from the noise in our political economy.

Chart of the Day: It’s just cheaper

Rewiring Aotearoa report

Front Page of the Day: Another reversal

Cartoon of the Day: Bamboozling

Jim Hubbard for The Press-$The Press-$

My Top Picks n’ Mixes

Top Six

1. Deep-dive by Lauren Crimp for RNZ: Homeless and hospitalised: The deadly impact of sleeping rough

2. Analysis by Jonathan Milne for Newsroom: Parties play political football, holding back ready-made solar solution to cost of living ‘Let’s not pretend deferring rates is chump change. At least 9 councils have gone to court this year to force the sale of homes whose owners had accumulated unpaid rates.’

3. Analysis by Jenna Lynch for Stuff: The economy has become Nicola Willis’ political problem

4. Column by Tim Murphy for Newsroom: Election 2026: The illusion of the crowd ‘Parties are spending early this election year, with numerous public meetings – but do bums on seats really mean votes in ballot boxes?’

5. Scoop by Todd Niall for Newsroom: Big spending isn’t ‘wasteful spending’ when it’s at Wayne Brown’s mayoral office

6. Deep-dive by Annemarie Quill & Shilpy Gaikwad for Stuff: ‘Dozens of infants’ needing medical care as RSV, not flu, drives ‘unusual’ winter virus season

Scoops & Breaking News

1. Belinda Feek for OJR/NZ Herald: Mother and baby die during childbirth after ‘catastrophic’ labour emergency

2. Hawkes Bay Today: Low-cost medical centre tells 3000 patients they’re no longer enrolled

3. Fox Meyer for Newsroom Pro-$: Pest control report cites fake papers, relying on ChatGPT hallucinations

4. Alice Peacock for Newsroom Pro-$: Restaurateur selling Downlow Burger franchises to vulnerable migrants, liquidator states

5. Hannah McCallum for Newsroom: Childcare proposals shelve review of staffing ratios

6. Reuters: Oil jumps around 5% to two-week high after Trump warns of more attacks on Iran

Deep-dives, Features, Op-Eds, Columns & Editorials

1. Deep-Dives, Interviews, Columns, Op-Eds & Editorials

2. Deep-dive by Jamie Ensor for NZ Herald: Are National, Labour MPs acting like they’re on podcasts in these videos? Here’s what they say

3. Analysis by Ron Bousso for Reuters: Trump-Iran standoff threatens chronic Gulf oil instability

4. Column by Toby Manhire for The Spinoff: MP who led homosexual law reform ‘seriously doubts’ bill would have made it in social media age

5. Column by Dileepa Fonseka for BusinessDesk-$: NZ wants growth without the awkward bits

6. Deep-dive by Peter Griffin for BusinessDesk-$: Unworkable: the teen social media ban unpacked

7. Max Frethey for LDR/1News: Tasman council urged to ‘get real’ on rivers to mitigate floods ‘A woman in Tasman is leading a community campaign to challenge the council’s river management practices.’

I publish an update online only before 9am that includes more detailed Picks n’ Mixes on housing, climate and poverty, a Chart Pack and more cartoons. It is only available to paying subscribers, who are also enabled to comment and use The Kākā’s chat room. Check back in here online after 9am to see the full lists and Chart Pack.

The Updated Bit by 9am

Front Pages, Key Articles, Charts & Cartoons

Newspaper front & key inside pages at 5am

Online news front pages at 5am

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Chart Pack of the Day:

NZ real wages down most in OECD in 2026 & since 2021

OECD Employment Outlook 2026 report & chart

OECD Employment Outlook 2026 report & chart

A recovery started, then stopped

Reuters: US reinstates sanctions on Iranian oil sales after LNG, oil tanker attacks

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My Detailed Picks n’ Mixes

Politics in Aotearoa

• Zane Small for Stuff: Luxon: I don’t need to do this job

• Emma Ricketts for Stuff: One man’s year-long mission to get a robotic lawn mower

• Maria Slade for BusinessDesk-$: Labour’s retirement village policy ‘not workable’

• Interview with Lyric Wairiri-Smith for The Spinoff: One MP, One Pint: National MP Greg Fleming’s hopes for a bilingual parliament

• Op-Ed by Megan Woods for The Post-$: Solar power shouldn’t be just for wealthy: SolarSaver would fix that

Geopolitics, Global Economy & Business

• RNZ: Concerns after second largest apple grower and exporter Kiwi Crunch enters voluntary administration

• Deep-dive by Amanda Gillies for RNZ/Newsroom’s The Detail: Lethal bird flu inches closer to New Zealand

• RNZ: Milk prices see largest drop in two years at global dairy auction

• Susan Edmunds for RNZ: Economists say means-testing NZ Super makes sense

• Liam Dann & Tamsyn Parker for NZ Herald: ‘A banned phrase’ – why nobody is ready to talk about economic ‘greenshoots’

• Katie Bradford for NZ Herald: Independent auditor assigned to scrutinise troubled Heart of the City group

• Jamie Gray for NZ Herald-$: Minister urges power distributors to tackle rising costs and inefficiencies

• Column for One Roof: Tony Alexander: What the rate hike means for mortgages and house prices

• Column by Liam Dann for NZ Herald-$: Gen Z and millennial Kiwis are delaying life plans as cost of living bites

NZ Economy & Business

• Reuters: US reinstates sanctions on Iranian oil sales after LNG, oil tanker attacks

• Reuters: Russia bans diesel exports to increase domestic supply, says deputy PM

• AP: Trump says US will give license for Patriot air defense systems to be made for Ukraine

• Reuters: IMF edges 2026 global growth forecast lower to 3%, sees rebound in 2027

• Reuters: UK Farage’s election gamble could see him face one challenger... Count Binface

• Deep-dive by Rory Johnston for The Dispatch-$ (gift): Is Big Oil ‘Price Gouging’? ‘Reduced global refinery capacity, not corporate greed, is keeping pump prices high.’

Housing

• Lauren Crimp for RNZ: ‘Extremely frustrated’ Government struggles to find buyer for Napier flats sitting empty for year

• Helen Harvey for Taranaki Daily News: Kāinga Ora selling multimillion-dollar New Plymouth site

• Stuff: Buyers ‘over the moon’ after Jacinda Ardern’s Auckland home sells at auction

• Maxine Jacobs for The Press-$: Survey about Pegasus housing development raises suspicions

• Op-Ed by Jill Hawkey for The Press-$: Hiding homelessness won’t do anything to solve it

• Anne Gibson for NZ Herald-$: NZ’s tallest office, apartment tower wins draft fast-track consent

Transport, Infrastructure, Water & Councils

• Oliver Lewis for BusinessDesk-$: Port of Auckland trims planned 2027 access charge hike

• Tom Hunt for The Post-$ (front page lead): The crucial calculation that could kill Wellington tunnels plan

• Charlotte Cook for RNZ: Tradie charging up to 30 percent more for clients on streets with no parking

• Column by Virgina Fallon for The Post-$: Dear ute drivers, we need to talk about your parking

• Jim Kayes for Stuff: Rush to reform will cost ratepayers says Whakatāne Mayor, Nándor Tánczos

Poverty, Living Costs, Incomes, Health, Education, Crime & Justice

• RNZ: Mother and baby die during childbirth after ‘catastrophic’ labour emergency

• RNZ: Wakari Hospital concerns raised before human rights issues uncovered

• Cate Macintosh for The Press-$: Christchurch teacher aide quits over low pay and term-time only employment

• Stuff: Former immigration adviser accused of pocketing student’s tuition fees

Climate & Environment

• Sammy Carter & Mary Argue for RNZ: ‘Nothing to sell’: Martinborough businesses struggle to get supplies in

• RNZ: Hauraki Gulf Marine Park faces increasing pressure from ecological threats

• Deep-dive by Bill Morris for Frank Film via NZ Herald: Where land shifts and stones tell stories on Canterbury’s longest shore

Solutions & Good News

• Nick James for The Post-$: Fuel‑saving campaign cost $3.8m, drove $21.5m in estimated benefits

• Kate Green for RNZ: Green eyes: Hastings surgery yet to spend a dollar on power this year

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More Cartoons

Anyone but America

Banx for FT-$ & via BlueSky

Stuck

Morten Morland for The Times & via BlueSky

Count Binface says: On my way, Clacton

Count Binface via BlueSky

Crowds of foreigners

Jonesy for Private Eye & via BlueSky

Anything I’ve missed?

cheers

Bernard

1. Analysis by Jenna Lynch for Stuff: The economy has become Nicola Willis’ political problem; Column by Henry Cooke for The Post-$: This is not the rate rise for Willis to worry about - the next one is

2. Reuters: Trump says ‘I don’t want to deal with them’, warns of new US strikes

3. Giles Dexter for RNZ: Labour promises subsidies, new loan schemes for installing solar; Justin Hu for 1News: Labour wants solar ‘for all’ with $160m policy aimed at power billsThe SolarSaver package, announced today, would cost $160 million over four years, which the party says it will fund by repurposing the coalition’s gas security fund.; Mandy Te for Interest : Labour unveils SolarSaver package to help renters access solar power; Tom Pullar Strecker for The Post-$: Labour’s solar plan eclipses National’s in ambition and cost, leaving it more to explain; Katie Bradford for NZ Herald-$: ‘It’s currently illegal’: Solar policy hits snag over banned battery units; Marc Daalder for Newsroom: Labour aims to outshine National’s solar policy; Lyric Waiwiri-Smith for The Spinoff: No matter who the next government is, Aotearoa is going solar

4. Jimmy Ellingham for RNZ: Family says woman died after leaving hospital over fears she faced 25-hour wait

5. InfraCom release:Flood damage to infrastructure is expected to grow. New research by Earth Sciences New Zealand, commissioned by Te Waihanga, explores how flood damage to infrastructure could change under different climate scenarios. It shows that, across the scenarios modelled, flood damage is expected to increase over the coming decades.

6. Charlotte Graham for The Waikato Times: Bishop signals rethink on PC1 as farmers voice concern