TLDR: This week in geo-politics, the global economy and Aotearoa’s political economy, we learned:
China is retreating further into itself under a now completely dominant Xi Jinping;
global investors think central banks are about to do a ‘dovish pivot’ on interest rates;
but Adrian Orr isn’t ready to pivot yet and wants unemployment to rise first;
our Employment Court ruled Uber drivers are employees and the Fair Pay Act passed;
ANZ reported record profits and its economists forecast a 27% fall in real house prices; and,
The UN forecast current climate policies would warm the planet by 2.8 degrees celcius by 2100.
What was in this week’s ‘Hoon’
In this week’s ‘Hoon’ live webinar for paying subscribers on Friday at 5pm that is in recorded podcast form above, co-host Peter Bale and myself talked with special guests Robert Patman from the University of Otago and Jason Young from Victoria University of Wellington about:
Vladimir Putin’s unproven allegations Ukraine is planning to set off a dirty bomb and the latest signs his henchman in Russia are unhappy and organising against him;
America and NATO’s continued solidarity behind Ukraine despite the occasional waverings of both some Republicans and Democrats ahead of key mid-term elections on Nov 8;
President (for life) Xi Jinping’s clean-out of the rest of his rivals and any remaining ‘opening up and reforming’ influencers from China’s top leadership groups at last weekend’s five-yearly Party Congress, which further spooked international investors who should have known better; and,
Why US moves to block exports of computer chip technology to China are so important.
Separately, Peter and I talked about:
the unfairness of the Reserve Bank’s aggressive rate-hikes on covid’s losers, and how the Government itself could help to reduce inflation by cutting GST and other fees and levies;
the Future of Local Government Review’s draft proposals to change council finances and governance, including ideas to lower the voting age, create four-year terms and create a co-investment fund; and,
What Elon Musk’s takeover of Twitter might means and why Facebook’s valuation crash shows markets sometimes do better work than regulators.
What was on The Kākā this week
For examples of how I covered these issues for paying subscribers this week, here’s my deeper dive analyses of:
the fairness of the Reserve Bank’s fast rate hikes in Friday’s email and podcast;
the early signs of easing inflation pressures in Thursday’s email and podcast; and,
how global investors and traders are positioning for a ‘dovish pivot’ by central banks later this year in Tuesday’s email and podcast.
Other places I spread my journalism this week
A discussion about the economy on TV3’s The Nation on Saturday
Scoops this week elsewhere
Useful longer reads, listens & watches elsewhere
Charts of the week
Right back to where we started from?
ANZ’s economists this week increased their forecast fall in house prices from the peak in November to a trough next year to 18% in nominal terms from 15% previously. It also forecast a wage-inflation adjusted 27% fall in real house prices back to pre-covid levels.
A good year for the bankers
ANZ reported its profit in the six months to September 30 rose 9.6% to $920m from the previous six months because of rising net interest profit margins as the Reserve Bank hiked interest rates and because it grew mortgage lending sharply in 2020 and 2021.
We’re doing nowhere near enough
The UN Environment Programme reported this week that that planet was on track to warm by a disastrous 2.8 degrees by 2100 with current policies.
Profundities, curiosities, spookies and feel-goods this week
Mā te wā
Bernard
The week that was to Oct 30