So many extreme weather events, but no mention of climate change

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey

0:00

-7:29

So many extreme weather events, but no mention of climate change

Extreme floods hit Tasman with more feared; Tornado hits Waitara, but no mention of climate change worsening extremity & frequency of floods; Models show climate change worsens events 10-20%

Bernard Hickey

Jun 30, 2025

178

Transcript

Briefly in the news from Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate on Tuesday, July 1:

Extreme floods hit the top of the South Island over the weekend, unleashing a wall of media coverage on the ‘unprecedented’ scale of the disaster, but there was no coverage of modelling showing each degree of climate warming increases the intensity of weather events in the region by 10-20%. See more in The Lead below the paywall fold and in the podcast above.
Worker and employer expectations of real wage deflation are worsening as the economy slides back into a mid-year stagnation, and as administered prices such as Government and council fees and rates rise faster than inflation, as do prices in the monopoly-bound food, insurance and electricity sectors. See more in Chart of the day below.
Northland’s big new expensive motorway is likely to generate barely a seventh of the benefits modelled by NZIER for Northland businesses. See more in Quote of the day below.
758 construction businesses have gone into liquidation in the last 12 months, thanks in part to the Government’s freeze on transport, housing and hospital investment spending at the beginning of 2024, Centrix reported this morning. Construction jobs have fallen by 12,723 in the last year, Stats NZ reports. See more in Number of the day below.
Taumata Orawai reported yesterday that more than 70 schools fed their kids contaminated water in the last year. See more in Doc of the day below.
Today’s Must-Read is from Linda Hall for LDR via 1News on how a Wairoa woman had to move 14 times after toxic flooding before she finally found a home. See more in Picks ‘n’ Mixes below.

There’s more detail and analysis for paying subscribers below the fold and in the podcast above. If we get over 100 likes I will open it up in full for public reading, listening and sharing.

Ignoring climate change’s role in extreme events

Extreme floods hit the top of the South Island over the weekend, unleashing a wall of media coverage on the ‘unprecedented’ scale of the disaster, but no coverage of modelling showing each degree of climate warming increases the intensity of weather events in the region by 10-20%,

Here’s the research put out at the end of 2023 by New Zealand climate experts Greg Bodeker, Kyle Clem and Leroy Bird and the chart showing which parts of the country are most exposed.

The research put out at the end of 2023 by New Zealand climate experts **Greg Bodeker, Kyle Clem and Leroy Bird** showing the increase Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) for a one-in-100-year event caused by one degree of warming.

Quote of the day:

“The NZIER report is advocacy research, paid for by people with monetary skin in the game to commercial providers of consultancy services, meaning its conclusions need to be regarded with caution by the public. The recommendation to prioritise the expressway does not logically follow from any of the analysis undertaken and estimates of benefits and costs derived by the NZIER.” Public policy academic Dr Simon Chapple in his independent analysis for Parliament’s Transport & Expenditure Select Committee of an NZIER report last year that argued the Government’s proposed four-lane Warkworth to Whangārei to Kaikohe motorway would cost $1.2 billion and generate $23.6 billion of benefits. Chapple estimated benefits of just $3.7 billion and said the costs were very uncertain.

Further reading: Jenny Ling for The Northern Advocate: Fears Northland Expressway at risk as report challenges $1.2b GDP boost

Number of the day: 758

758 - The number of construction firms that have gone into liquidation in the last 12 months, as detailed this morning in a report by credit reference checker Centrix.

Chart of the day: Real wage deflationary expectations

**ANZ NZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner** in her weekly *Charts That Matter* report

“This chart just keeps getting uglier. Household inflation expectations have jumped to a two-year high, which probably has something to do with food price inflation being 4.4% y/y. Even though outcomes for real wage growth aren’t likely to be nearly as grim as this chart implies, perceptions may well matter for consumers’ willingness to spend.” ANZ NZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner in her weekly Charts That Matter report.