Roosting chorus:499,649 young non-voters

Election turnout of 18-39 year olds up from 2017, but 499,649 still didn't vote; Labour to double sick leave by mid-2021, but keep carryover days at 10; Auckland eyes $3.50 congestion charge by 2025

TLDR: The Electoral Commission released turnout figures for the October 17 election this afternoon that showed turnout improved for 18-39 year olds, but 499,649 still didn’t vote.

PM Jacinda Ardern repeated today she didn’t think a Capital Gains Tax was possible because the people (who vote) had spoken in three elections. If those half a million had voted or Ardern thought they might vote, the results might have been different.

Arden and Workplace Relations Minister Michael Wood announced the Government would introduce legislation before Christmas to double the number of sick days to at least 10 a year by mid-2021, although it reduced some of the extra cost for employers by keeping the ‘carryover’ limit for sick days at 20 days.

DHBs and the PSA announced they had agreed a pay equity deal for up to 8,500 clerical and administration workers that would see their pay increased by up to $2,500 a year. That will boost earnings and spending.

In the economy, the Reserve Bank reported nearly $3b in extra mortgage lending in October, while lending to businesses and farmers fell nearly $700m, further inflaming fears that the Reserve Bank’s money printing and lending programmes to lower interest rates are overwhelmingly going into inflating prices of existing homes. Local jobs figures for October were strong, as were industrial production surveys in China and Japan.

Overseas, Australia reacted angrily to China’s foreign spokesman tweeting a photoshopped image of an Australian soldier committing a war crime. Ardern would not get involved in the fight.

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News today in our political economy

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

FYI from PM on wealth/CGT tax; "The appetite for some of these policies also needs to come from the public. We've tried three times now to do things that specifically sit in that taxation category and there hasn't been wide support for that."

1 NEWS @1NewsNZ

. @jacindaardern says public bears some responsibility for housing crisis after failed taxation attempts https://t.co/eGJryWLfUx https://t.co/s4gydf5FSX

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

Despite all the fears and forecasts from March to Aug, jobs numbers are holding up very well. @Stats_NZ reports jobs up by 27,667 to 2.2m in Oct from Sept. Election and Covid-19 health jobs big drivers, but also growth in manufacturing, retail & services stats.govt.nz/news/election-…

RNZ @radionz

Up to 60 overseas shearers will be allowed to enter the country between January and March to help fill a gap in the local workforce.

rnz.co.nzUp to 60 overseas shearers to be granted border exemptionsIt comes after concerns about how keeping shearers out could harm farmers’ incomes and cause animal welfare issues for unshorn sheep wilting in the summer heat.

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

Fresh lending figures out from @ReserveBankofNZ showing bank lending for housing rose $2.9b in Oct from Sept, while business lending fell $538m and Agriculture lending fell $125m.

rbnz.govt.nzSector lending (registered banks and non-bank lending institutions) - C5 - Reserve Bank of New Zealand

RNZ @radionz

A congestion charge of $3.50 to drive through Auckland's central city at peak hours is one option being considered to handle the city's traffic problems.

rnz.co.nzAuckland city centre facing congestion charge of $3.50A congestion charge of $3.50 to drive in Auckland’s central city at peak hours is one option being considered to handle the city’s traffic problems.

Reuters @Reuters

New Zealand regulator charges 13 parties over White Island eruption tragedy reut.rs/39sIjEO

In the global political economy today

David Crowe @CroweDM

Inflammatory Chinese government post sends already cool relationship into deep freeze.

smh.com.auChina should be ‘totally ashamed’: Scott Morrison demands China take down postPrime Minister Scott Morrison has condemned a propaganda image shared by China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Reuters @Reuters

Dollar plumbs two-year low as Fed comes in to focus reut.rs/3mn1wuW

Reuters @Reuters

China's factory activity expands at fastest pace in over three years reut.rs/2JjT81c

Reuters @Reuters

Japan factory output grows for fifth month, retail sales surge reut.rs/2JntzMB

Notable alternative views

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

Interesting from @BCLTax on a little used little land tax that could catch section sellers. 'I think we will see Inland Revenue making extensive use of provisions such as CB 14 to pick up transactions that have not previously been taxed'

BCLTax aka Terry Baucher @BCLTax

Here's the transcript of Friday's podcast. The new Minister of Revenue's speech includes a subtle warning about aggressive tax avoidance ahead of the new 39% tax rate's introduction on 1 April 2021. #nztax #inlandrevenue #brightlinetest #capitalgainstax https://t.co/c8K5yoQEkR

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

Good housing ideas via @ClintVSmith Change Council rates to land-value from capital-value to hit land-bankers. Impose ghost mansion rates penalty. Stop landlords claiming interest for tax. Give $1b in extra tax back to households via $3k tax deduction thespinoff.co.nz/society/30-11-…

Threads worth unravelling

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

Useful from @juliemfry & @NZIER for @NZprocom on migration: “In NZ the response has been, we need to find a way to bring in migrants because we can't cope without them, whereas other countries like the UK were like oh, so we need to speed up robotics.”

stuff.co.nzNZ’s welcomed a lot of nice people, few trailblazers through immigration: NZIERDespite its best efforts to become the next Silicon Valley, NZ has brought in very few top-tier skilled migrants and entrepreneurs.

Florence Kerr @floislane

I am part of an investigative team that was tasked with taking our journalism spotlight and shining it back on us. We investigated the way we have reported on Māori, our indigenous people, and found we were racist, biased and provided a lack of balance.

Longer reads worth your time

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

Great piece from @dileepa_fonseka in @SundayStarTimes on @NZStuff about Treasury's hopelessly outdated and painful 5% discount rate for evaluating infrastructure projects. Designed in late 1980s to stop Think Big. Partly responsible now for a $75b deficit

stuff.co.nzNew Zealand’s ‘value for money’ handbrakeThe system is stacked against funding big long-term projects which could change our country in the long-term

Charts of the day

Max Rashbrooke @MaxRashbrooke

Voter turnout - as a proportion of eligible New Zealanders - since 1911, updated for October's election. Data courtesy of @VicUniWgtn's Jack Vowles.

Reid Wilson @PoliticsReid

The generational breakdown of the 117th Congress, beautifully visualized by @kerning

Coming up

Tues - Dec 1 - Government to introduce Climate Change Emergency legislation to Parliament on Tue

Weds - Dec 9 - Parliament rises for 2020

Dec 16 - Treasury releases its Half Yearly Fiscal and Economic Update

Dec 17 - Stats NZ publishes Sept qtr GDP

Dec 22 - Final cabinet meeting of 2020

Feb 1 - The Climate Change Commission will release its first draft of the national carbon budget under the Zero Carbon Act.

Ngā Mihi

Bernard

PS: Many thanks to my lovely daughter Eilish for today’s Kākā drawing

PPS: Some fun things

Kevin Kal Kallaugher @kaltoons

Other Vaccines we need in 2021 @TheEconomist #Vaccines #satire #cartoons

World of Moose @World_of_Moose

Civil Aviation worldofmoose.com/collections/ca…