Roosting chorus: China slaps Australia

Big new tariffs put on Australian wine exports to China; Trump agrees he'll go if the electoral college says Biden won; Fletchers and Bunnings see 5-6% rise in timber prices on DIY boom

TLDR: Australia’s increasingly fractious relationship with China has cost another of its export sector’s dearly. China slapped 100%-plus tariffs on Australian win imports today, adding to blockages and tariffs on Australian coal, barley and sugar imports.

The move may help New Zealand’s wine exporters in the short term. They reported a record $2b of exports globally in the last year today and could benefit as buyers of higher quality win in China switch to our win. But New Zealand’s relations with China are moving into the spotlight too after the Government toughened its stance in the last fortnight, joining a Five Eyes condemnation of China’s takeover of Hong Kong.

We’ll see how long we avoid the same punishment, given Aotearoa was lumped in with its four other partners by a spokesman for Beijing this week as likely to have our ‘eyes poked out’ for criticising China.

Elsewhere, there is news of big rent increases in the Wairarapa and a cracking chart from Shamubeel Eaqub showing what CPI inflation would have looked like with inflation of existing homes included. Currently, just rents, rates and the cost of a new home are included in the CPI. There’s also signs of inflation brewing in timber prices.

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In our political economy today

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

Inflation on the way? "Timber supply is tight right across NZ. That means everything from structural framing products through to the landscaping products like decking, fence palings, railings, etc. We've got a tight market." @nzherald-$$$

nzherald.co.nzTimber in ‘tight’ supply, prices forecast to rise 5-6% after New Year - NZ HeraldGoing from spring to summer, timber supplies forecast to be short.

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

When much of the world is locked up at home and having a tipple...New Zealand wine exports hit record $2 billion

stuff.co.nzNew Zealand wine exports hit record $2 billionDemand has soared as northern hemisphere consumers hunker down at home during the Covid-19 pandemic.

In the global political economy today

BBC Business @BBCBusiness

China slaps tariffs on Australian wine as tensions grow

bbc.inChina slaps tariffs on Australian wine as tensions growIt has been investigating the “dumping” of cheap wines in China - an accusation Australia denies.

Reuters @Reuters

China's industrial profits rise 28.2% year-on-year in October reut.rs/2JlR0Ww

Signs o’ the times news

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

NZ today: "Tauranga Council is trying to work with NZTA to achieve co-funding. Getting the road over there is the number one thing we need. There's no more land we can release until that connection is in place." @nzherald-$$$

nzherald.co.nzCity warned of ‘serious consequences’ as Tauranga development runs short on land - NZ HeraldConcerns have been raised as land begins to run out at Tauriko Business Estate.

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

FYI from concerned citizen Chris in Khandallah, who says he's not a NIMBY. 'Housing woes can't be addressed by creating 'Stalinist, gothic monstrosities' in my suburb'

stuff.co.nzHousing woes can’t be addressed by creating ‘Stalinist, gothic monstrosities’ in Wellington’s KhandallahA former Member of Parliament says Wellington’s housing affordability issues will not be addressed by creating “’monstrosities” in Khandallah.

Newshub Politics @NewshubPolitics

Housing crisis 'is not real', investment expert claims

dlvr.itHousing crisis ‘is not real’, investment expert claimsAshley Church says there are enough houses - and rapid price inflation is good for the country.

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

A property manager in the Wairarapa: "Naturally when a purchase price goes up, and a bigger mortgage is taken out, rents go up too.” Question if I may. Do you drop the rent when mortgage rates fall?

times-age.co.nzRent: All-time high - Times AgePHOTO/STOCK.ADOBE.COM Masterton rent lagging KAREN COLTMAN karen.coltman@age.co.nz Average rents have reached an all-time high in Carterton and South Wairarapa, at $440 and $433 a week respectively for October. Statistics NZ’s October rental price data for the Wellington region showed a 2.4 per cent…

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

This is one argument to throw back at the NIMBYs arguing against rezoning for intensification: it will make their land more valuable... oneroof.co.nz/news/38735

Threads worth unravelling

Marc Daalder 😷 Wear a Mask, Scan QR Codes @marcdaalder

Newsroom understands New Zealand may be excluded from a summit of high-profile, high-ambition global leaders on climate change over concerns it is not doing enough to reduce emissions. #climatechange #nzpol

newsroom.co.nzNZ may be excluded from climate leaders summitNew Zealand may not be invited to a meeting of high-ambition climate leaders in December over concerns about the country’s inaction on climate change.

Chart of the day

Shamubeel Eaqub @SEaqub

This is what it looks like when you add house prices to CPI. Not pretty. Updated from this in 2016: stuff.co.nz/business/opini…

Alternative views

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

This is useful from @honpeterdunne on the art of deflection applied in the housing debate

honpfd.blogspot.comDunne SpeaksMastering the art of deflection is a critical part of any successful politician’s skill set. Put simply, it is the ability to know when to...

Longer reads for the Weekend

Jonathan Cheng @JChengWSJ

Washington Post columnist: "President-elect Joe Biden’s personnel picks so far portend a strategy that maintains the Trump administration’s core thrust of focusing on competition—not engagement—with Beijing." @joshrogin

wapo.stOpinion | Biden is rebranding but not reinventing Trump’s China policyContinuity will be the watchword when it comes to China.

Have a great weekend

Ngā mihi

Bernard

PS: Thanks to Martin Barwood for today’s pic.

PPS: Some fun things

Paul Bronks @SlenderSherbet

Life goals: find someone who loves you even half as much as this bird loves reggae. 🔊 📹: Imgur user JebidiahBeetus

The Onion @TheOnion

Elderly Mother At That Age Where Even Just One Fall Over Niagara Could Be Fatal bit.ly/3fIKBkl