New Zealanders were more concerned than ever about the cost of living, health care, the economy, housing costs and unemployment in early July, according to the latest Ipsos Monitor survey1 of over 1,000 potential voters that was released this morning.
The survey found more voters thought Labour would manage the economy, health care, the cost of living, housing costs and unemployment better than National. This is only the second time in the survey’s history since 2018 that Labour has beaten National on the economy, having briefly been ahead in October last year.
The survey also found confidence in the Government (right track/wrong track) fell to its second lowest level ever in the survey’s eight0-year history, just above its record-low in October of last year. (See more analysis, charts and detail below, and in the video above.)
Elsewhere in the news around Aotearoa’s political economy of housing, climate and poverty this morning:
Christchurch Hospital’s Emergency Department is in crisis this morning. An ED doctor said yesterday2 the hospital plans to pitch a tent outside as corridors fill up with patients in beds, with some already being angled in corridors in order to fit more in.
In my view, this case again highlights the dangers of ongoing under-investment and skimping on staff and maintenance to keep pressing the size of Government down under 30% of GDP in an aging, fast-growing and less healthy population. The population of Greater Christchurch has grown by 150,000 to 577,000 in the last decade, which was faster than projected or invested for. (See charts of the day below)
New Zealand First has revealed it plans to sell the retail arms of the Government-controlled gentailers, Meridian, Mercury and Genesis, to the private sector to fund extra generation by their wholesale arms, Tom Pullar-Strecker reports this morning for The Post-$3.
ANZ’s Business Outlook survey4 through the month of July found an improvement in confidence about the economy and business’ own outlooks from June, but stagnant experienced activity, a contraction in hiring and a worsening outlook as the month went on and fuel prices rose ever higher.
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FYI to all paying and free subscribers, I have decided to open this up immediately. Thanks in advance to paying subscribers for their permission.
National sags again on economy in Ipsos poll
It is turning into a long winter of discontent for the Government, across all the measures that drive voter support for the Coalition overall, and National in particular.
Today’s Ipsos NZ poll results show voters even grumpier about the economy, the hospital system and unemployment than they were in October last year, when for the first time Labour was judged better on the economy than National.
Here’s the key charts to tell the story:
My Top Pick n’ Mix Six
Deep-dive by Amanda Gillies for RNZ/Newsroom’s The Detail: Deaths, delays and a health system under extraordinary pressure
Scoop by Sammy Carter for RNZ: Missed rent cases jump the Tenancy Tribunal queue - but is it favouring landlords?
Scoop by Nicholas Jones for Stuff: Top surgeon quit NZ for Australia after twice falling asleep at the wheel
Scoop by Glenn McConnell, Jenna Lynch & Emma Ricketts for Stuff: Revealed: Military choppers and bulletproof car on call to protect Seymour and Luxon on Waitangi Day; Stuff: The five times Luxon caught the air force express to the Beehive; Stuff: An Air Force chopper had to be flown up from Ohakea to take PM from Auckland to Hamilton
Interview with Quilae Wong by Mandy Te & Anna Whyte for Interest: Opportunity Party leader Qiulae Wong talks coalition dealbreakers & more
Explainer by Susan Edmunds for RNZ: How Consumer NZ wants to fix the electricity market
Charts of the day: Christchurch population above forecasts
Christchurch city population and forecast
Selwyn and Waimakariri districts population and forecasts
Front Page of the Day: Labour beating National
Cartoon of the Day: A special water fountain
cheers.
Bernard
PS: I update this post online later in the morning for paying subscribers, including more detailed Picks n’ Mixes on housing, climate and poverty, a chart pack and more cartoons below the paywall fold. It is only available to paying subscribers, who are also enabled to comment and use The Kākā’s chat room.
RNZ Morning Report: Patient beds angled in ED corridors to fit more amid winter surge; Stuff: No outside tent for hospital, though Health NZ says ‘caring for patients in corridors is not ideal’; Joanne Naish for The Press-$: Christchurch doctor says tent ready to be pitched outside as patients overwhelm ED
Tom Pullar-Strecker for The Post-$: NZ First’s proposed power company split might reap less than $1.5b ‘Representing the party at a debate on the electricity market hosted by Consumer NZ on Wednesday, NZ First MP David Wilson made clear the plan would also involve an asset sale. “We want more investment in generation. We sell the retail arm. We separate the gentailers. We use the funding from selling the retail arm to provide more generation,” he said. Forsyth Barr analyst Andrew Harvey-Green said it was a “good rule of thumb” that about 10% of the value of the gentailers lay in their retail arms, with the bulk of their value attributable to the power plants they owned. The Government has a 51% stake in Meridian, Mercury and Genesis, which have a combined market value of just over $28b, but no stake in Contact, meaning the value of its shareholdings total just over $14b.’
