Briefly in Aotearoa’s political economy on Wednesday, January 28:
The Lead: PM Christopher Luxon’s net favourability rating slumped a further four percentage points to a record-worst -17% in the Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll conducted in January, but not published earlier this week, The Post-$ reports this morning. His net unfavourability among non-aligned voters was -42.2%. Paying subscribers can see more detail below the paywall fold and hear more analysis in the podcast above.
The Sidebar: Despite the PM’s worsening popularity, Finance Minister Nicola Willis pledged this morning not to “splash the cash” in Budget 2026 on May 28, revealing another worsening in Treasury’s economic outlook and again saying spending restraint was needed to get the “books in order.”
News elsewhere: The NZ dollar rose over 60 USc this morning due to continued selling of the US currency by foreign investors fearing a Trump-run Fed would debase the world’s reserve currency through inflationary rate cuts; and ASB raised its four and five year mortgage rates yesterday (Interest).
Chart Pack of the Day: KiwiSaver withdrawals for hardship reasons and first home buyer deposits rose by more than a third in calendar 2025 to $2.5 billion, IRD data shows, while tax debt rose to $9.3 billion in the year to June 30, 2025 from $4.8 billion three years earlier, IRD reports.
Scoop of the Day: Brendan Murray reports for Bloomberg-$(gift) overnight that Donald Trump carries out just one in four of his tariff threats.
Today’s Deep-dive of the Day is from Robert F Worth for The Atlantic-$ (gift): Welcome to the American Winter ‘In the frozen streets of Minneapolis, something profound is happening.’
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