House prices refusing to rise with economy's tide

Briefly in Aotearoa’s political economy on Thursday, January 29:

1. The Lead: Just as in 2025, the housing market is failing to fire at the start of a year when economists and politicians had been saying economic green shoots and lower interest rates would fire up house prices again. Paying subscribers can see more detail below the paywall fold and hear more analysis in the podcast above.

2. The Sidebar: ANZ and BNZ have just lowered their house price inflation forecasts to 2% from 5% and 4% respectively, while landlord intentions to sell homes have spiked in January, along with their fears about rising mortgage rates, a new survey by Tony Alexander for Crockers has found.

3. News elsewhere: Judith Collins yesterday announced her retirement as National MP for Pakuranga Papakura¹ late enough to avoid a by-election. She’s leaving to become President of the Law Commission, which Nicky Hager questions her fitness for², and which Labour worries will politicise the commission³.

4. Chart Pack of the Day: Treasury has repeatedly lowered its GDP forecast for the 2026 year by a collective $14.4 billion since the election of the current Government, along with increasing its forecasts of new jobseeker beneficiaries by 30,000 and increasing its forecast for the Budget deficit for 2026 by more than $14 billion, according to analysis by Labour candidate Craig Renney.

5. Scoop of the Day: Kate Newton reports for RNZ that the Suncorp-controlled AA Insurance has stopped writing new home insurance policies for new customers because of the town’s climate-change-related flood risk.

6. Today’s Deep-dive of the Day is from Richard Murphy about AI & the job market

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The economy’s rising tide isn’t lifting house prices