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'Happy to watch your grandkids grow up in Australia via WhatsApp?'

Debate growing about exodus of young New Zealanders to Australia and beyond, but the penny has yet to drop for older home-owners: unless they surrender to wealth taxes, they will lose their grandkids
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Globally, NZ has the second-highest share of its population living overseas permanently, many of them now permanently in Australia. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The Kākā

Kia ora. Long stories short, here’s my top six things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Tuesday, October 29:

  1. A new bout of hand-wringing about the ongoing exodus of almost 200 New Zealanders a day to live in Australia has yet to take the final step to challenging opponents of wealth taxes and housing densification to surrender to lower house values to keep their grandchildren at home with them.

  2. Scoop of the day: Over 8,000 homes on the outskirts of Wellington are being fast-tracked, but without the public transport the developers say is needed, Kate Green reports for RNZ this morning.

  3. Deep-dive of the day: Indira Stewart reports for 1News about the scale of the intergenerational tragedy of the kids of prisoners.

  4. Solutions news: The developer of a dried seaweed food for cows and animals that reduces methane emissions by 95.6% needs the Government to lift its ban on seaweed as a food for animals, Louisa Steyl reports for The Press-$$$.

  5. Quote of the day: An engineering student laments having to leave.

  6. Chart of the day: A UNEP report shows the urgency and scale of emissions reductions needed to avoid catastrophic climate change in our lifetimes.

(There is more detail, analysis and links to documents below the paywall fold and in the podcast above for paying subscribers. If we get over 100 likes we’ll open it up for public reading, listening and sharing.)


1. ‘You’ll keep your wealth, but lose your grandkids’

Nearly 200 NZers a day leaving. Their parents seem surprised.

Stuff’s newspapers wrote extensively over the long weekend about the record-high exodus of New Zealanders going to Australia and elsewhere to live permanently, largely because of better wages and lower living costs overseas.

The decades of relying on tax-free and leveraged capital gains on residential land instead of investing in infrastructure, business IP, technology and training is now coming home to roost.

It’s crystal clear to most CEOs, economists and non-politicians that the lack of a capital gains tax has created a gaping hole in our tax system that has incentivised dead investment, massively widened inequality and is destroying the hopes of those thinking of starting families in stable and affordable homes they own, unless they can get massive help with deposits from family.

The home-owning parents themselves have yet to make that leap, seeing the constant churn and burn of residents leaving and being replaced by temporary migrants on low wages as some sort of inevitable and unchangeable force of economic nature.

It’s not. New Zealand has the second-highest share of its population living overseas permanently. Having a conventional tax system would give Governments options to invest more in public infrastructure and even up the playing field for businesses to invest more in technology and training in ways that would improve productivity and real wages.


2. Scoop du jour: Fast-tracking without trains is pointless

Thousands of Wellington homes stranded without bus, train funding

Kate Green reported this morning for RNZ about the pointlessness of fast-tracking housing developments on the edges of cities without the Government also funding the public transport needed to make them work.

More than 8000 new homes are set to be fast-tracked on the outskirts of Wellington, but the region's public transport plan is up in the air.

One regional councillor says the government is undermining its own housing policy by refusing to contribute to a programme of upgrades and maintenance.

It turned down a funding bid from Greater Wellington Regional Council earlier this year, asking the government to fund $134 million of a $270m plan over the next three years. Regional councillor Thomas Nash said it would mean big cuts to planned improvements. RNZ’s Kate Green.

Yet again, the Government is trying to bully the councils into paying for the infrastructure it won’t pay for. The end result? No houses.

Property developer The Wellington Company has two subdivisions set to be fast-tracked up the coast - one in Paraparaumu and one in Ōtaki, totally 2300 homes all up - and both within walking distance of a train line. Managing director Ian Cassels said public transport connections, which were often cheaper than owning and fueling a private vehicle, were vital to new developments.

"The main purpose here is to lower the cost of living so that people have disposable income, so society can function well, and at the same time, reduce carbon effects and improve the environment."

It was not about being anti-car, he said, but about giving people choice.

"I think it's vital that we conspire to lower the cost of living for people that have precious little disposable income," he said. RNZ’s Kate Green.

Honorable mentions

Justice & poverty: Government spends $3.5 million to fight historical abuse claims RNZ’s Anneke Smith

Monopolies & poverty: ‘Bizarre’: Sort-by-price option removed from New World, Pak’nSave websites. Consumer NZ says the move makes finding the cheapest option more difficult and could bolster supermarket profits. Stuff

Health & Education: Dunedin medical school status in danger with hospital redesign - MP ODT-$$$ Matthew Littlewood

Housing: Builders to be allowed to self-certify in consent shake up. A new self-certify regime for builders, plumbers and drainlayers will cut costs and delays for consumers, Building Minister Chris Penk says. The Post-$$$ Luke Malpass

Councils: Peter Scott’s vehicle caught speeding almost 1000 times in 12 months. The former ECan chairman’s council-issued vehicle was responsible for almost a third of the excessive speeding by its staff in 2024 - and a loophole at the organisation may explain why it wasn’t picked up earlier. The Post-$$$’s Charlie Mitchell


3. Deep-dive of the day: An intergenerational tragedy

Indira Stewart’s piece via 1News is compelling and the numbers are startling.

According to New Zealand Treasury data, between 17,000 to 20,000 children in New Zealand have a parent in prison. If you count children with a parent serving a community sentence or home detention, that number more than doubles to include about 17 percent of all children in Aotearoa – that’s almost one in five kids. 

That same data shows children of prisoners are 10 times more likely to end up in prison themselves. And perhaps the most confronting finding from research and reviews both here and globally, is that the needs of children of prisoners are not prioritised when a parent goes to prison.

Justice & poverty: The 'invisible' children of NZ's prisoners speak out about the care they need. They've been unseen and sometimes very unsafe, but three teens with parents in prison are standing up for the rights and needs of the thousands of Kiwi kids like themselves. 1News’ Indira Stewart

Honorable mentions

Housing: Emergency housing deep-dive: Success story or data disappearing act?Getting people out of emergency housing is a laudable goal. But where are they going?The Sunday Star Times’-$$$ Nikki Macdonald

Environment: New Zealand’s complicity in global shark fin trade ‘outrageous’ - conservationistNew Zealand has exported almost 500 tonnes of shark fins since 2014 when shark finning was banned - something the country’s Sea Shepherd boss says is “outrageous”. The Press-$$$’s Andy Brew


4. Solutions news: Climate & methane

The developer of a dried seaweed food for cows and animals that reduces methane emissions by 95.6% needs the Government to lift its ban on seaweed as a food for animals, Louisa Steyl reports for The Press-$$$ this morning.

Government is currently reviewing its regulatory sector to help fast track on-farm methane mitigating innovations. This comes as CH4 Global last week announced new research it said validated its approach to busting methane. The peer-reviewed study, published in Animal Feed Science and Technology, compared the methane reduction potential of whole Asparagopsis seaweed versus pure bromoform — the compound found naturally in red seaweed that acts as a methane mitigator.

The results showed that whole, dried seaweed reduced methane emissions by 95.6% when included at 0.5% of an animal’s diet, compared to a 59.6% reduction from an equivalent dose of bromoform. The Press-$$$’s Louisa Steyl

Honorable mention

Food & poverty: Vege garden to tackle supermarket prices and demand on food hub. Kōkiri Marae is growing a vege garden and running workshops behind its Wainuiomata food hub to help feed whānau and support them to become self-sufficient. The Post-$$$’s Hanna McCallum


5. Quote of the day: ‘I don’t want this’

“It’s a tradeoff. Do I want to stay here for culture and love, or do I want to go there for my career and to work hard to achieve my goals. It’s a choice I don’t like having to make.” Engineering student Lydia Frater preparing to join her sister in Australia, talking to 1News Katie Bradford.


6. Chart of the day: Mind the gap

Zeke Hausfather via Carbon Brief: “The UNEP calls for “no more hot air” as countries approach the February 2025 deadline to submit their next nationally determined contributions (NDCs) setting mitigation targets for 2035.”

The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Tuesday, October 19

  1. Climate & emergencies: The Government approved $23.1 million in extra funding for Surf Life Saving NZ, Coastguard NZ, Land Search and Rescue, and Amateur Radio Emergency Communications. Transport Minister Simeon Brown said the funding will replace and repair assets damaged during 2023 North Island extreme weather events. 1News

  2. Climate & Pacific: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced NZ will contribute $20 million to the Pacific Resilience Facility (PRF), a Pacific-led climate adaptation financing facility. Pacific Islands Forum initiatives director Zarak Khan said in August that the PRF is over US$300 million short of its US$500m 2026 funding target.

  3. Housing & Poverty: A new discussion document on a review of the Building Code's fire safety provisions following the 2023 Loafer's Lodge fire identified potential improvements. Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk also announced a new Bill introducing an offence for negligent certification of building inspection & maintenance requirements, and fines for building owners failing to display a Building Warrant of Fitness.

  4. Transport & infrastructure: Retail NZ, Hospitality NZ, and the Bus & Couch Association urged Wellington City Council to review its CBD roadworks program amid its impacts on Thorndon Quay businesses. Hospitality NZ CEO Steve Armitage said business owners are also concerned about the prospect of Courtenay Place works starting in the new year.

  5. Housing: Property developer Simplicity Living announced it’s gained resource consent approval for a 330-unit build-to-rent development in Remuera to be completed by February 2027. The project near the Greenlane train station, will cover 1.4 hectares, and features solar panels and rainwater harvesting. RNZ

  6. Jobs & health: An open letter signed by businesses, unions, and health & safety experts urged Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden to refrain from substantially changing the Health and Safety at Work Act 2015, which is based on legislation from the UK & Australia. The Business Leaders’ Health and Safety Forum, one of the signatories, estimated the cost of workplace illness and injury in NZ at $4.9 billion per year, and noted NZ's workplace fatality rate doubles that of Australia. Business Desk


Cartoon of the day: ‘Hot air in the Pacific’

Daron Parton in The NZ Herald

Nature pic of the day

Strange fruit of the sea. Bernard Hickey for The Kākā-$$$

Ka kite ano

Bernard

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The Kākā by Bernard Hickey
The Kākā by Bernard Hickey
Bernard Hickey and friends explore the political economy together.