Briefly in Aotearoa’s political economy on Monday, January 26:
The Lead: Higher than expected inflation in the December quarter is deepening Government fears there will be one or two rate hikes before the election. See more in Chart Pack of the Day and hear more analysis in the podcast above.
The Sidebar: The last week’s devastating storms will test the Government’s commitments not to fund land buyouts after climate events.
News elsewhere: Minnesota’s state Government and protestors demanded Donald Trump’s White House order the removal of an occupying ICE force after officers shot a ICU nurse in the back ten times, having already disarmed him1; Donald Trump threatened another 100% tariff on Canadian imports if Canada did not abandon a trade deal with China2 ; and, Phil Goff accused Winston Peters of failing to stand up for New Zealand soldiers after Donald Trump said allied troops "stayed a little back" during the war in Afghanistan3.
Chart Pack of the Day: Support for NZ First and Labour rose the most in the latest political opinion poll4 , while support for ACT and Green fell. National’s support rose a bit, extending the National-ACT-NZ First coalition’s lead over the Opposition, but the measure of ‘right track/wrong track’ showed a worsening view of the country’s direction.
Scoop of the Day: Andrea Vance reported for The Post-$ on Saturday that a landslide study for the Tauranga City Council clearly flagged the landslide danger around Mount Maunganui, but the volcanic cone was excluded from the hazard zone map, and therefore deemed not the responsibility of the Council because there were no properties that required LIMs.
Chart Pack of the Day: Annual inflation rose to 3.1% in the December quarter, increasing the chances of one or two rate hikes before the election. Wholesale interest rates rose again and ANZ formally shifted its forecast of the first OCR hike from February 2027 to December 2026.
Today’s Deep-dive of the Day is from Mildred Armah for Stuff about an ACC decision to reverse its support for a woman with a hip injury after she had had her surgery.
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