The Kākā by Bernard Hickey
The Kākā by Bernard Hickey
Election year begins with house prices falling & joblessness rising
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Election year begins with house prices falling & joblessness rising

Govt hoping voters will 'feel' economic recovery by Nov 7 as 'green shoots' appear (again), but year begins with falling house prices, unemployment rising to 10-year high and real wages deflating
Luxon, Willis et al hope they can convince voters by the election that the much talked about ‘green shoots’ are real, but no Government in the MMP era has ever won an election when real house prices are falling. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The Kākā

Briefly in Aotearoa’s political economy on Thursday, February 5:

  1. The Lead: Cotality reported this morning that house values fell another 0.1% in January and are down 1.0% from a year ago, while real estate agents surveyed by Tony Alexander in January for NZ Home Loans say buyer concerns about higher interest rates have spiked and their views on prices softened again. Paying subscribers can see more detail below the paywall fold and hear more analysis in the podcast above.

  2. The Sidebar: The news undermines the Government’s hopes it can convince voters at large that ‘green shoots’ of economic recovery will be felt widely and deeply enough before the election on November 7.

  3. News elsewhere: Residents are increasingly angry about massive water treatment plant failures that have made Wellington’s southern coast beaches and seas no-go zones for humans and have putrified the air around Christchurch Bromley plant.

  4. Chart Pack of the Day: Stats NZ reported yesterday unemployment rose to a 10-year high of 5.4% in the December quarter despite a rise in employment of 14,000 or 0.5%, due to a rise in the participation rate to 70.5% from 70.3%. Real wages fell and the number of under-utilised workers rose 2,000 to 409,000.

  5. Scoop of the Day: Jonathan Milne reports for Newsroom that credit rating agencies are against the Government’s rates cap on councils.

  6. Today’s Deep-dive of the Day is from Amy Williams for RNZ on how families are sinking into debt to pay for school uniforms.

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Can swing voters ‘feel it’ with falling house prices?

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