Dawn chorus: Rent affordability worsens

Stats NZ report shows rental poverty has doubled in the last 30 years; RBNZ says return of LVRs might slow inflation by 1-2 percentage points; UK starts vaccine rollout; Brexit talks on the brink

TLDR: Morena. PM Jacinda Ardern apologised for the Government’s failings before and after the Christchurch attacks and pledged a bi-partisan response in any legislative response. But it looks to be in trouble straight away, with Judith Collins saying National would block moves to bolster hate speech laws.

Elsewhere, Stats NZ released its first major review of Housing in 11 years, finding home ownership rates at their lowest levels in 70 years and a further worsening of rental affordability. The Reserve Bank opened consultation for the reimposition of LVR controls. It estimated that that a return to the pre-May LVR controls would reduce house price inflation by one to two percentage points, relative to the counterfactual. For example, down from 10% to 9%.

Overseas, Britain administered its first vaccine shot overnight, but last-ditch talks to secure some sort of orderly Brexit for January 1 remain near the brink of collapse.

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In our political economy

RNZ @radionz

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's hope for political consensus regarding hate speech law is looking doubtful as the Royal Commission of Inquiry into the Christchurch terror attack reignites the debate.

rnz.co.nzJacinda Ardern promises to close ‘gaps in hate speech legislation’The prime minister’s hope for political consensus regarding hate speech law is looking doubtful as the report into the Christchurch terror attack reignites the debate.

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

Here's the real issue with housing affordability: 'The proportion of renting households that spent more than 30% of income on housing costs rose from below 20% in 1988 to over 40% in 2019.'

stats.govt.nzHousing in Aotearoa: 2020 | Stats NZRead about how housing intersects with people – How well does New Zealand’s housing stock provide suitable, affordable, warm, safe, and secure shelter for its citizens? Where are the gaps and inequalities?

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

FYI @ReserveBankofNZ is not saying LVR reinstatement would cut house prices 1-2%. Just saying reinstatement would 'should help to lean against a possible further accelerations.' Effect would be 1-2 percentage points off inflation rate 'relative to counterfactual of no LVRs'

Reserve Bank of NZ @ReserveBankofNZ

We're seeking views on our plan to reinstate loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions on high-risk lending with effect from 1 March 2021. We welcome feedback on this proposal and will be accepting submissions until 22 January 2021 👉 https://t.co/l3Uw2RLJcY #rbnz https://t.co/SydUwRYoGj

Roy Morgan @RoyMorganNZ

No ‘second honeymoon’ for PM @jacindaardern with @nzlabour support dropping after NZ Election as @NZGreens & @actparty gain. There has been no ‘second honeymoon’ for PM Ardern after securing an easy victory at October’s Election with support for... #nzpol ow.ly/IBbo30rnzpP

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

Any surprise when 50% of under-fives live in rentals? When renters in poverty has doubled to 40% since 1988. When 40k children/yr are hospitalised for preventable diseases due to housing poverty. When 30-50% of rentals are cold/mouldy. Where Sth Akl student turnover rates = 30%?

John Gerritsen @RNZeducation

NZ students record worst results in maths and science https://t.co/h9eQ0IwzXj

In the global political economy

CNBC @CNBC

UK begins rollout of Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine: Here's what you need to know

cnb.cxUK begins rollout of Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine: Here’s what you need to knowNinety-year-old Margaret Keenan on Tuesday became the first person in the world to receive the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine outside of trial conditions.

Reuters @Reuters

Trade chaos, tumbling financial markets and huge economic costs: As Britain and the EU try to reach a Brexit deal, here’s what a ‘no deal’ is likely to look like reut.rs/36UWdO1

Reuters Business @ReutersBiz

Japan's PM announces $708 billion in fresh stimulus reut.rs/2VOJ7eS

Signs o’ the times news

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

FYI last year Hamilton City Council voted not to declare a climate emergency. Instead it voted for climate 'urgency'. Priority with this latest move seems to be more car parks...

Newshub @NewshubNZ

Hamilton likely to replace iconic theatre with carpark https://t.co/fK2kjG7EoY

Morning Report @NZMorningReport

A survey of 3600 households has found a third have not recovered their pre-pandemic income levels, and 11 percent are still on severely reduced incomes.

rnz.co.nzCovid-19: A third of incomes still not at pre-pandemic levels, 11 percent severely reduced<p>A survey of 3600 households has found a third have not recovered their pre-pandemic income levels, and 11 percent are still on severely reduced incomes.</p> <p>Two surveys were carried out by the Commission for Financial Capability, one in April and another six months later in October. It also f…

Threads worth unravelling

Sven Henrich @NorthmanTrader

US M1 money supply has increased by 55% since February. 35% of all US dollars in existence have been printed in 10 months. Just ponder this.

Chart of the day

Marc Daalder 😷 Wear a Mask, Scan QR Codes @marcdaalder

Two reasons our allies say they are concerned about NZ's climate action. First, while other countries have reduced emissions, NZ has registered the second greatest increase in emissions among industrialised countries since 1990.

Useful longer reads

Stuff.co.nz Business @NZStuffBusiness

Price dictators: How growers say supermarkets came to call the shots

dlvr.itPrice dictators: How growers say supermarkets came to call the shotsConsumers are paying too much for food, while farmers aren’t getting paid enough – and the group in the middle are making a fortune, an industry expert says.

Useful reports

Sharon Zollner @sharon_zollner

COVID-19’s legacy of increased public debt and even less affordable housing will be carried disproportionately by younger people. Pressure on politicians to do more looks set to intensify from here.

Coming up…

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

FYI another half a trillion euros of fresh money printing and bond buying expected to be announced this week by @ecb

Vastuullisuusuutiset @Vastuullisuus

ECB to beef up stimulus as second virus wave bites https://t.co/ICEJhUKylr #ECB #Economy #Second #Wave #Virus @Vastuullisuus

Dec 9 - Parliament rises for 2020, followed by Press Gallery Party (woohoo!).

Dec 16 - Treasury releases its Half Yearly Fiscal and Economic Update (a full week to recover)

Dec 17 - Stats NZ publishes Sept qtr GDP

Dec 22 - Final cabinet meeting of 2020

Feb 1 - The Climate Change Commission will release its first draft of the national carbon budget under the Zero Carbon Act

Feb - Financial Action Task Force’s mutual evaluation report of New Zealand is expected in February.

Ngā Mihi

Bernard

PS Thanks Melissa Boardman for her pic today and for her amazing book Birds of New Zealand Ngā manu o Aotearoa. Each bird has its own collective noun. The collective for Kākā is a Hoon of Kākā. Brilliant! Here’s more via Stuff and RNZ.

PPS: Some fun things

Domenico @AvatarDomy

Singapore 🇸🇬 Airport allows the passenger to slide down to the terminal gate

Tony Stuart @TonyStuart55

Were any of these lateral thinking answers actually wrong?