Dawn chorus: No room at the Inn
PM says 14,000/month MIQ limit can't be changed as NZ Inc puts up 'No Vacancy' sign; Good vaccine news overnight; Collins may split Finance role between Bridges and Bayly; SFO eyes America's Cup deals
TLDR: Our Managed Isolation and Quarantine (MIQ) system is now full up well into the New Year. The PM says capacity can’t easily be lifted. NZ Inc is going to have to go cold turkey on imported temporary workers for months to come.
Pfizer and Germany’s BioNTech announced its Covid-19 vaccine candidate had been 90% effective in tests, sparking a rally of more than 3% on global stock markets this morning.
Shane Reti is likely to be named National’s Deputy Leader to replace Gerry Brownlee later this morning. The question now is whether Collins chooses Simon Bridges or Andrew Bayly to replace Paul Goldsmith as Finance Spokesman. Collins may split the role. She stays as Leader because no one wants that ‘hospital pass’, as she herself described the day after the election.
‘The limit is the limit’
New Zealand has space for around 14,000 arrivals a month to go through managed isolation and it is limited to that by the proximity of suitable hotel complexes to emergency medical facilities. It’s why Queenstown hotels have not been used. It’s too far away from a big enough ICU. We’re now hitting the buffers and the Government can’t do much about it quickly, other than relax the rules for Australia and the Pacific, or build much, much bigger dedicated facilities at somewhere like Ohakea.
PM Jacinda Ardern was pressed again on this yesterday, given the vouchers needed to get in are all used up until well into the New Year. That 14,000 per month figure is the effective limit on the number of people coming in, which means employers looking for temporary foreign workers will struggle in the months to come. (Stuff)
“With Covid raging it is obviously completely understandable that Kiwis want to come home for Christmas ... but we can't simply turn on more places As it is, New Zealand already has more spaces in managed isolation per-capita than in places like Australia, for example. If you are someone with a voucher but won't be using it, please make sure you cancel it as soon as possible. And I encourage others to keep checking for the release of rooms.” Jacinda Ardern
Here’s the MBIE numbers on the latest and projected MIQ occupancy.
National to revisit Treasurer/Finance split?
Claire Trevett reports this morning Judith Collins is considering splitting the Finance Spokesperson role between Simon Bridges and Andrew Bayly along the Treasurer/Finance Minister lines seen in Australia and briefly used in 1996 when Bill Birch (National’s Steven Joyce of the 1980s and 90s) had the Finance role and Winston Peters (remember him) had the Treasurer role.
“Typically, the Treasurer is responsible for overall fiscal policy while the Finance Minister is in charge of matters such as tax and revenue.It could see specific areas such as revenue, infrastructure and KiwiSaver split between them, while one other dealt with political management and the broader brush monetary, fiscal and economic policy. If Collins goes ahead with the plan, the latter would likely rest with Bridges, who is far more agile politically than the little-known Bayly and more capable of footing it against Finance Minister Grant Robertson in Parliament.” Claire Trevett
National’s Caucus is now expected to elect Shane Reti as Deputy Leader later today, while Collins is safe as Leader for now, given even she has described the role as a ‘hospital pass’. Trevett expects the shadow cabinet lineup on Wednesday. (NZ Herald-$$$)
Other useful bits and bobs of news
Storm ahoy: Hamish Rutherford reports SFO Director Julie Read is calling Government officials about the dramas around the America’s Cup funding. (NZ Herald-$$$)
“After days of refusing to comment on revelations in the Herald about its handling of whistleblower complaints about America's Cup Event Limited (ACE), a company set up to run next year's regatta and largely funded by taxpayers, the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) confirmed that its chief executive, Carolyn Tremain, had spoken to the SFO, possibly more than once.” Hamish Rutherford
A Generation X Cabinet: Henry Cooke has calculated the average age of the new-look cabinet is 47, down from 52.9 in the last one because of the departure of Winston Peters (75) and Ron Mark (66). The oldest member now is Damien O’Connor at 62 and the youngest is Kiri Allan at 37. She takes the youngest title from Jacinda Ardern, who was the youngest in her first cabinet at 37 and is now the second youngest at 40. (Stuff)
‘A Labour King/Queen red tide’: Cherie Sivignon reports on Nick Smith’s comments to National members in Nelson over the weekend. He described National’s loss as a “hammering” and that his loss of the Nelson electorate was due to a nationwide swing triggered by the Government’s popular response to Covid-19. (Stuff)
“It was a Labour king tide – or perhaps I should call it a queen tide, a queen red tide that got us.” Nick Smith
Schadenfreude city: Colin Craig is suing Cameron Slater for $700,000. That is all. (NZ Herald-$$$)
In the global political economy overnight
Markets rallied more than 3% this morning after the announcement by Pfizer and BioNTech that its Covid-19 vaccine candidate had been 90% effective in trials.
Useful links and reports
BDO released its Construction industry survey for 2020 this morning, highlighting concerns about the construction pipleline. Cabinet better get a move on.
Other points of view
He’s hopeful: AUT’s Construction Management Professor John Tookey is on the right track with his ideas about the Government underwriting development of affordable homes, but ultimately he is right, Jacinda Ardern would have to break the promise of a political lifetime to make a difference.
Longer reads worthy of your time
One of my heros is Maggie Haberman, the New York Times reporter who has made Donald Trump’s life a living hell over the last four years. Here’s a valedictory on Haberman by Ben Smith. She’s why I subscribe to the… (NY Times-$$$)
People moves
Summerset CEO Julian Cook announced his resignation in March after seven years in the role. Deputy CEO Scott Scoullar will become the CEO then.
Coming up…
Today at 10.45 am - Stats NZ to publish electronic card transactions data on retail spending in October 2020.
Today at 10am - The NationalParty’s Parliamentary Caucus will meet to elect a deputy leader. Gerry Brownlee is set to resign, opening the way for Shane Reti, who is considered the favourite, or Michael Woodhouse. Leader Judith Collins is expected to name a new shadow cabinet on Wednesday, including changing out Finance spokesperson Paul Goldsmith, possibly for Simon Bridges and/or Andrew Bayly. (Stuff)
Weds Nov 11 at 9am - Contact Energy AGM
Weds Nov 11 at 2pm - Reserve Bank quarterly Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) and news conference at 2pm. Details expected of the Reserve Bank’s $30-50b Funding for Lending Programme (FLP) of Reserve Bank money printing and lending to banks at or around the Official Cash Rate (currently 0.25% and expected to fall to minus 0.5% next year).
Thurs Nov 12 at 10.45 am - Stats NZ to publish travel and migration data for September.
Thurs Nov 12 around 8.30 am - Sanford to publish full annual results to NZX, but it gave an early indication on Nov 5 of a 46% fall due to Covid-19.
Fri Nov 13 at 10 am - Business NZ-BNZ Purchasing Managers Index for October
Fri Nov 13 at 10.45 am - Stats NZ to publish rental price indexes for October.
Mon Nov 16 at 10.45 am - Stats NZ to publish wellbeing statistics for September quarter.
Sat Nov 21 - National Party AGM due to vote on re-election of President Peter Goodfellow.
Weds Nov 25 2pm - Reserve Bank to publish six monthly Financial Stability Report (FSR) . Expected to warn of re-imposition of high LVR lending limits from May 1, 2021.
Weds Nov 25 - Opening of Parliament for 53rd term, including swearing in of new MPs
Thurs Nov 26 - Speech from the throne in Parliament outlining Government’s agenda
Ngā Mihi
Bernard