Dawn chorus: No bubble before Feb

PM indicates preference to keep border closed until well into 2021; NZ Initiative editor suspended after discovery of his racist and sexist blog; ECB to print extra €500b; UK set to crash out of EU

TLDR: Morena. PM Jacinda Ardern indicated she preferred to keep the border closed until well into next year to ensure New Zealand stayed covid-free in the community. The NZ Herald’s Derek Cheng reported this morning after his interview with Ardern the Government did not expect the creation of any travel bubble with Australia before February.

Newsroom’s Marc Daalder reported this morning the NZ Initiative had suspended its chief editor Nathan Smith on full pay pending an investigation after it was revealed he had been writing an anonymous blog spouting racist, sexist and incel views since 2007.

Overseas, overnight, the European Union detailed plans for a very hard British exit from the union that would severely restrict travel and trade from January 1. Meanwhile the European Central Bank announced overnight it had increased its money printing and bond buying plans by €500b to €1.85t. That’s ‘t’ for trillion and converts to NZ$3.1t or 10 times NZ GDP.

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In our political economy

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

The PM explains the border conservatism via @dchengnz in @nzherald-$$$ "Our tolerance for risk is low because we are living essentially without restrictions."

nzherald.co.nzRevealed: Jacinda Ardern on the Covid year that was, what’s ahead and why the borders are still shut - NZ HeraldNZ was on thin ice seeking reagents for coronavirus tests.

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

FYI from @dchengnz via @nzherald It appears there's now no chance of a Trans-Tasman travel bubble before February.

nzherald.co.nzCovid 19 coronavirus: No transtasman bubble before February at the earliest - NZ HeraldSeveral issues mean that a bubble is unlikely to happen before February at the earliest.

Laura Walters @WaltersLaura

This important, but really scary, story by @marcdaalder makes me feel all kinds of yuck I can't even begin to imagine how Jewish and Muslim communities feel when they see this shit

newsroom.co.nzThink tank editor runs far-right blogIn posts on his personal blog, New Zealand Initiative chief editor Nathan Smith attacks Muslims and Jews and espouses incel ideology.

Michael Morrah @MichaelMorrah

Official information reveals the struggle health teams had tracing just a handful of daily COVID cases during the August outbreak. The DHB was “too slow” by 8 days to get enough staff & “many” were had “no training or experience”. @NewshubNZ #COVID #nzpol

newshub.co.nzCOVID-19: Newshub investigation reveals authorities were close to losing control during August coronavirus outbreakAt the time, however, Chris Hipkins publicly said contact tracing systems were “performing well”.

RNZ News @rnz_news

Covid-19: Bungle allows cargo ship crew to skip isolation protocols

rnz.co.nzCovid-19: Bungle allows cargo ship crew to skip isolation protocolsA mistake by Taranaki health officials has resulted in the crew of an overseas cargo vessel being allowed shore leave before they completed Covid-19 isolation protocols.

Jonathan Mitchell @jonomitchellnz

Wellington water infrastructure needs major investment - mayoral taskforce

rnz.co.nzWellington water infrastructure needs major investment - mayoral taskforceAbout 30 percent of drinking water assets and 20 percent of wastewater networks have passed their use-by dates, and up to 60 percent of pipelines need replacing within 30 years, the report says.

In the global political economy

Miguel Ángel Vicente @ma_vicente

#ECB Governing Council decided to increase the envelope of the pandemic emergency purchase programme (#PEPP) by €500 billion to a total of €1,850 billion. It also extended the horizon for net purchases under the PEPP to at least the end of March 2022

ecb.europa.euMonetary policy decisionsThe European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank of the 19 European Union countries which have adopted the euro. Our main task is to maintain price stability in the euro area and so preserve the purchasing power of the single currency.

rat king @MikeIsaac

BREAKING: FTC + 48 States attorneys sue Facebook, alleging the company illegally crushes smaller rivals and competition — They're calling for the SPIN-OFF of Instagram and WhatsApp, a move that Zuckerberg has called "existential" for FB w/ @ceciliakang

nytimes.comU.S. and States Say Facebook Illegally Crushed CompetitionRegulators are accusing the company of buying up rising rivals to cement its dominance over social media.

BBC Business @BBCBusiness

Britons could be barred from EU entry on 1 January

bbc.inBritons could be barred from EU entry on 1 JanuaryEU pandemic rules and Brexit may restrict travellers from entering the European Union.

Longer reads and listens worth your time

Olivier Blanchard @ojblanchard1

Weighing my words carefully: We may be on the verge of a shift in fiscal paradigm. Proof of concept: The large agreement between Summers, Furman, Bernanke, Rogoff, and me, in the PIIE-Brookings zoom. bit.ly/2VnhwRU (Second hour. The first hour is great as well)

bit.lyFiscal policy advice for Joe Biden and CongressWhen Joe Biden takes office, he will confront unusually challenging economic circumstances: a persistent pandemic, an economy far short of full employment, a...

Brendon Harre @brendon_harre

Politicians have made a mess of housing. New Zealand should find some Housing Jedi Knights. medium.com/land-buildings…

Mihi Crede @juhasaarinen

“America under Trump became less free, less equal, more divided, more alone, deeper in debt, swampier, dirtier, meaner, sicker, and deader,” George Packer writes. “It also became more delusional.”

theatlantic.comA Political Obituary for Donald TrumpThe effects of his reign will linger. But democracy survived.

Threads worth unravelling

Jason Furman @jasonfurman

In our new paper @LHSummers and I argue that low interest rates present a challenge for monetary policy and financial stability but an opportunity for fiscal policy--if we choose to seize it. A thread summarizing the paper.

Thomas PHILIPPON @ThomasPHI2

(1/) A thread on the FTC lawsuit against Facebook, and the DOJ's lawsuit against Google. First, it is long overdue. Second, it's a good thing that it starts under a Republican administration and continues under a democratic one. wsj.com/articles/faceb… via @WSJ

wsj.comFacebook Hit With Antitrust Lawsuits by FTC, State Attorneys GeneralFederal case seeks to unwind social-media giant’s Instagram, WhatsApp acquisitions; other claims target company’s tactics against competitors

Coming up

Dec 16 - Treasury releases its Half Yearly Fiscal and Economic Update (a full week to recover)

Dec 17 - Stats NZ publishes Sept qtr GDP

Dec 22 - Final cabinet meeting of 2020

Feb 1 - The Climate Change Commission will release its first draft of the national carbon budget under the Zero Carbon Act

Feb - Financial Action Task Force’s mutual evaluation report of New Zealand is expected in February.

Ngā Mihi

Bernard

PS Thanks to John Parker via his instagram for today’s pic.

PPS Some fun things

Robin Wigglesworth @RobinWigg

Chris Slane @Slanecartoons

A rising tide raises all bloated moneybags... @nzlistener #cartoon #nzpol