Dawn chorus: Govt buying Ihumātao

Cabinet to today consider deal for Govt to buy Ihumātao from Fletcher Building, RNZ says; RBNZ tells Govt it can't help much to control house prices; Cooks bubble deal done for Q1 2021

TLDR: Morena. Cabinet is expected to today consider a deal for the Government to buy disputed land at Ihumātao from Fletcher Building in a first step towards handing the land back to Mana Whenua, RNZ reports. The key question is how the deal avoids setting a new precedent for privately-owned land subject to Treaty of Waitangi claims.

Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank on Friday gave its detailed reply to Finance Minister Grant Robertson’s plea for help to control house price inflation. The bank essentially said it couldn’t help much and suggested the Government create a single agency or ‘clearing house’ to coordinate its response on housing.

Overseas this morning, Britain and the EU remain far apart on a Brexit deal as another deadline approaches later today. Most think a deal is now very unlikely, which would create massive uncertainty for New Zealand’s meat, dairy and wine exporters who had relied on some sort of carryover deal for the EU-wide quotas.

Elsewhere, civil unrest is growing in the United States as US President Donald Trump refuses to accept defeat and appeals to his extreme-right supporters to overturn the result. There were clashes overnight in Washington DC between ‘proud boys’ and opponents that led to stabbings and other violence.

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In our political economy since Friday morning

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

Appears Fletcher Building is about to make some tax-free capital gain on Auckland land ownership. Half an Ihumātao deal due to be confirmed in cabinet today. 'RNZ understands Fletcher Building will sell the land to the government' No deal yet with mana whenua.

RNZ News @rnz_news

Ihumātao land dispute: Initial deal expected to go to Cabinet today https://t.co/uZ3jgjNvhZ

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

Appears Covid-19 and 'Business Transformation' delays may be costly at IRD. Although the new computer system is certainly hoovering (or should that be Dyson-ing) in the GST and income tax for the Govt

Stuff.co.nz Politics @NZStuffPolitics

IRD faces huge financial shortfall after delay in transformation programme https://t.co/ZQ6ofQ0LTE

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

Eg of why increasing housing supply is so hard. Fletcher buys land to build thousands of houses. Council opposes due to high infrastructure costs that would hike debt/rates for all Auckland ratepayers. Locals & MP oppose it because it means 'paradise lost'

nzherald.co.nzFletcher plans huge new housing development in Kumeu, West Auckland, but residents up in arms - NZ HeraldFletcher Building buys huge tract of farmland for housing. But locals aren’t impressed.

nzherald @nzherald

Mike Pero, aviator - real estate king plans to launch NZ-Pacific airline nzherald.co.nz/business/mike-…

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

In which we discover NZTA spent $479m more on motorways than it was told to by Govt and spent $50m less on cycling than told to (just half the budget) Suburban home-owning double cab Ute drivers win. Bus riding/cycling apartment renters lose.

stuff.co.nzCost blowouts on 17 roads cost NZTA $1.1 billionCost blowouts on just 17 roads have cost the transport agency $1.1b in just three years.

Eugene Bingham @Eugene_Bingham

Kudos to the Commissioner for fronting on this one. And, yes, the figures are awful. It’s a discretionary power that gets used against Māori - at some stations more than 10 times more. Thanks to everyone who spoke to us for this investigation. https://t.co/oPaY9SSeZx

Patrick Crewdson @PatrickCrewdson

An important investigation from ⁦@Eugene_Bingham⁩ ⁦@fsorodrigues⁩ ⁦@McKeenPhotos⁩ https://t.co/SO6zCgEAvp

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

Massey's restructure not smooth. Interesting choices for cuts too, given areas of growth and need in economy. 'Some of the most affected included Master of Sciences (MsC) in mathematics, nanoscience, geography and computer science.'

nzherald.co.nz71 Massey professors hit out over controversial science shake-up - NZ HeraldMore than 70 Massey professors make rare and direct appeal to chancellor over shake-up.

The Press Newsroom @PressNewsroom

University of Canterbury academic Anne-Marie Brady cleared after complaints dlvr.it/RnQDK3

In the global political economy since Friday morning

Reuters @Reuters

PM Johnson: We're very far apart on Brexit trade deal reut.rs/348MZMG

TIME @TIME

Four people were stabbed at a pro-Trump rally in Washington

ti.me4 People Stabbed, At Least 23 Arrested at Pro-Trump RallyThousands of supporters of President Donald Trump returned to Washington for weekend rallies to back his desperate efforts to subvert the election that he lost to Joe Biden.

Real Time Economics @WSJecon

If eviction numbers explode next month in the U.S., economists say cities and towns could see a surge in people out on the street

on.wsj.comU.S. Poised for Wave of Evictions in January as Federal Ban ExpiresBetween 2.4 million and 5 million American households are at risk in January alone

New York Times World @nytimesworld

Germany announces a new lockdown over the Christmas holidays as coronavirus cases surge

nyti.msGermany Locks Down Ahead of Christmas as Coronavirus Deaths RiseStores and schools will be closed, and public and private meetings will be restricted over the holidays, in an effort to bring down coronavirus infections and deaths.

Sign o’ the times news

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

Interesting unexpected consequence. ‘A simple painted bus lane on a high frequency bus route, like parts of Adelaide Rd, could trigger the directive requirements of the NPS for higher density housing within 400m or even 800m of a humble bus shelter.’

stuff.co.nzSix-storey apartments could be coming to a bus stop or train station near youOPINION: Central government’s new policy direction on urban developement will limit scope for local councils to adopt a more bespoke approach to building.

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

Coffey of REINZ said it may get even worse. “We have a growing population, the prospect of the borders opening in the next 12 months, and I would expect New Zealand will be a destination of choice for a lot of people to come and live.”

stuff.co.nzWellington city’s median house price approaches $1 million - and there’s no sign of a slowdownThe latest numbers show the housing market is crazy in the capital. Those in the know say it’s only going to get worse.

paulbrislen @paulbrislen

I was at the international terminal yesterday and I’ve never seen it so empty. Really sobering.

Notable alternative views

RNZ @radionz

Opinion: As the housing crisis continues to spiral out of control, Hayden Donnell calls for a moratorium on stories about young first home buyers.

rnz.co.nzPlease, no more stories about young people buying houses<p><strong>As the housing crisis continues to spiral out of control, Hayden Donnell calls for a moratorium on stories about young first home buyers.</strong></p>

Niall Ferguson @nfergus

Which debt mountain is the bigger source of future trouble? The U.S. federal debt? Or China's private debt? My latest for @bopinion, with references to @LHSummers, @jasonfurman, @JohnHCochrane, @johnauthers and @RayDalio:

bloomberg.comBloomberg - Are you a robot?

Coming up…

Dec 16 - Treasury releases its Half Yearly Fiscal and Economic Update (a full week to recover)

Dec 17 - Stats NZ publishes Sept qtr GDP. A rebound of 12-14% is expected in the quarter.

Dec 22 - Final cabinet meeting of 2020

Feb 1 - The Climate Change Commission will release its first draft of the national carbon budget under the Zero Carbon Act

Feb - Financial Action Task Force’s mutual evaluation report of New Zealand is expected in February.

Ngā Mihi

Bernard

PS Thanks to Wellington Fauna for today’s pic.

PPS Some fun things

corinneambler @corinneambler

Does this resonate @emmawehipeihana? Just found it in my Facebook memories 🤣.