Dawn Chorus: Border opening news

TLDR & TLDL: PM Jacinda Ardern is expected to announce a reopening of the borders to vaccinated New Zealanders returning home from midnight on Feb 27/Feb 28.

Jacinda Ardern is scheduled to give a major speech on the future of border controls and MIQ at 11am in Auckland today, including whether New Zealanders returning from Australia will be able to self-isolate at home from the end of February. Photo: Getty Images

I’m in Auckland today to cover the announcement and welcome the questions, queries, unintended consequences and comments from paid subscribers below the paywall fold. I’ll publish as many details as I can at 11am and update through the day.

I’m also writing a deeper analysis of yesterday’s income insurance proposal, including many of the great pointers in the comments from subscribers in the initial article and a closer look at the full discussion paper.

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Elsewhere in the news this morning:

Reopening? Finally? - Jacinda Ardern is scheduled to give a major speech on the future of border controls and MIQ at 11am in Auckland today, including whether New Zealanders returning from Australia will be able to self-isolate at home instead of MIQ from the end of February, as is the current plan.

The NZ Herald reports it understands the Government will go ahead with a reopening from Monday Feb 28, as does Newshub. The speech comes the day after the Government shortened the gap needed for a booster from four months to three months, which increases the number eligible for the booster by 1m to 3.06m by the end of this weekend.

Tensions rise - US President Joe Biden formally ordered the deployment of 3,000 US troops to Poland, Germany and Romania overnight, ratcheting up tension in the standoff between the US and Russia over fears Russia will invade the former Soviet state. Russian President Vladimir Putin accused the United States and NATO of trying to draw Russia into a war. (Reuters)

Euroflation - The European Union’s annual inflation rate hit a record-high 5.1% in January, which was above market expectations for 4.4% and ramps up the pressure on the European Central Bank to say later tonight how it will deal with inflation, given it is still printing money with interest rates at near zero percent. Energy prices for consumers rose 28.6% from a year ago, in part because of gas shortages linked to restraints on Russian supplies, Germany’s move to shut down nuclear power stations and a widespread push to stop burning coal to generate electricity.

Euro rate hikes coming - The Bank of England is expected to hike its main cash rate for a second time tonight as it joins the US Federal Reserve in taking a more hawkish approach to inflation. The ECB is only expected to confirm it will continue winding down its money printing, although market expectations for its first hike have been brought forward to the December quarter of this year from early next year. Markets now see two hikes of 10-15 basis points each in the ECB’s key deposit rate from minus 0.5% to minus 0.25%. Yes. You read that right. Minus 0.25%.

Labour shortages - 20,000 migrant workers have been excluded from the fast-track residency scheme, with many from the hospitality, tourism and construction sectors. (1news.)

Numbers of the day

Quitmageddon - A record 47.4m workers quit voluntarily in the United States in 2021, a year in which there was a net gain of 6.4m jobs. There were 10.9m job openings at the end of December, not much down from a record high of 11.1m at the end of July. The extreme tightness in the US labour market caused by the ‘quitmageddon’ and a much lower participation rate than New Zealand has pushed up wage inflation, although it also remains below the CPI inflation rate.

Subscriptionpalooza - The New York Times reported overnight it hit its target of 10m subscribers by the end of 2021 and wanted to reach 15m by the end of 2027.

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Scoops, news snippets and useful longer reads

Lynton Crosby, the Australian political operative well known on this side of the Tasman, has returned to advise Boris Johnson. (Guardian)

This paper from a Danish political scientist from late last year is refreshing on the idea that politicians should trust the public with uncomfortable information to win and retain trust, which creates a virtuous circle in crises such as pandemics. I’m not sure of any parallels between Denmark and NZ, but it is a refreshing read in Nature from Michael Bang Petersen.

This deep dive by Amir Khafagy in American Prospect into the containerised shipping industry peels back the history and shows the hidden costs to workers and the environment, along with the stinking profits being made by the industry at the moment.

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Comments of the day on The Kākā

“I limp because it took ACC a year to decide to fund a knee operation I needed from quake injuries.My point? They are a terrible organisation to expand to administer this scheme. Also in the quake era I got post viral chronic fatigue, slid out of the middle classes (health insurance etc) and onto a benefit which was brutish, insufficient and capricious.Our whole benefit system needs a massive overhaul to make it fulfil it's original intent.This new scheme seems to further bed in inequality.We need an UBI not more bureaucrats.” Greg or Sharon in yesterday’s article about the income insurance proposal.

“I agree. The proposed social insurance looks like a Blairite deal between the Labour Government, the CTU and employers to institutionalise the division the Government dreamed up in 2020 between the wealthy and recently unemployed and the poor and long-term jobless: engineered class warfare between the middle and lower classes.

“It will be difficult to argue against it as long as it is entirely funded by employer and employee, including ACC administration costs, and does not dip into state funds.

“However, the fair and equitable answer to unemployment continues to be a universal basic income for every adult, at a rate not less than NZ Superannuation, funded by taxation on both income and wealth.” John Trezise on income insurance.

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A fun thing

Sanjeev Kohli @govindajeggy

Well this is outstanding

Ka kite ano

Bernard

PS: Apologies for the slightly truncated Dawn Chorus today. Travelling to Auckland and prepping for the big 11 am news.