Dawn chorus: Big bubble and housing news due in next 48 hours

Cabinet to decide today on Trans-Tasman and Pacific bubbles, possibly to open by mid-April; Robertson to reveal housing tax moves on Tuesday

TLDR: I’ve bought back the dawn choruses due to popular demand and my need to see pictures of kākā regularly. FYI, the Government will make decisions in the next 48 hours that will set the economic and political agendas for the next 18 months until the next election. Cabinet will decide on Trans-Tasman and Pacific travel bubbles today and an announcement is expected in the 4pm post-cabinet news conference. Bubbles could be open by mid-April.

Finance Miniser Grant Robertson is expected to reveal a package of mostly demand-side measures to cool the housing market tomorrow morning. They could include an extension of the ‘bright line’ test for capital gains for property trading from five years to seven or 10 years, a possible tax on undeveloped land and reducing the ability for landlords to claim all their interest costs as a taxable expense. It may also include permission for the Reserve Bank to limit interest-only lending, which is currently mostly to landlords. Approval for a tool to limit debt-to-income is much less likely.

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Elsewhere in our political economy

bernardchickeysubscribers @bernardchickey2

A factor I hope is disclosed to potential higher skilled and richer migrants that the Government hopes to attract.

Stuff.co.nz Business @NZStuffBusiness

Migrants protest at $450m of deductions from their NZ super payments https://t.co/h43oqwylWu

1 NEWS @1NewsNZ

Skilled migrants shortfall likely to worsen even after borders reopen - Faafoi tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-z…

Scoops this morning

Stuff.co.nz Politics @NZStuffPolitics

Police in Wellington appropriated public cars parks during Covid-19 alert level drop, because staff felt unsafe at night

dlvr.itPolice in Wellington appropriated public cars parks during Covid-19 alert level drop, because staff felt unsafe at nightPolice in Wellington asked the council for free car parks for staff who felt unsafe getting to their cars at night

nzherald @nzherald

Skypath grounded: Auckland Harbour Bridge may never get a cycleway  #HeraldPremium nzherald.co.nz/nz/skypath-gro…

In the global political economy

Oil prices bounced over the weekend after a big slide late on Thursday, while the key US 10 year Treasury yield slipped back from its high on Thursday of 1.75% to close on Friday at 1.72%. Investors sold bank stocks after the US Federal Reserve said they had to hold a bit more capital. US stocks closed mixed.

A rancorous meeting between Chinese and US officials ended with vague promises of cooperation on climate change.

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

At what point will the Fed intervene to drive down longer-term interest rates? My finger in the air is 2%. The US 10 Year closed on Friday at 1.72%, after hitting 1.75% on Thursday.

reuters.comU.S. Treasury yields ease from peaks, oil prices reboundBenchmark U.S. Treasury yields edged back from the highest in more than a year on Friday, as investors digested the Federal Reserve’s move not to extend a temporary pandemic regulatory break expiring this month, and oil prices rebounded from severe slides.

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

This is effectively a move that tightens US monetary conditions a bit. Which should make the Fed more sensitive to any further sharp rise in longer term market interest rates.

reuters.comU.S. Fed to let bank-leverage exemption expire this month, will review ruleBig U.S. banks will have to resume holding an extra layer of loss-absorbing capital against U.S. Treasuries and central bank deposits from next month after the Federal Reserve said on Friday it would not extend a temporary pandemic regulatory break due to expire this month.

Sign o’ the times news

bernardchickeysubscribers @bernardchickey2

Sign o' the times: "I bought a bus because, more than 50% of my income goes on rent, and that makes it impossible to save for a house deposit, even if there were houses to buy in Wellington. My son has lived in 10 houses, and he’s only 11."

stuff.co.nzWhy I’m moving into a bus with an 11-year-old, a dog and a catOPINION: My son has lived in 10 different houses and he’s only 11. Buying a bus seemed the only way out.

bernardchickeysubscribers @bernardchickey2

Rightly, people can't understand why anyone would pay $745k for a 42 sq m house. But this is all about the land. Everyone in NZ understands it's the land that inflates. May as well have a tent on it.

stuff.co.nzIs $745k reasonable for a one-bedroom house? Wellington property draws ire of housing advocatesRidiculous. Outrageous. Hopeless. These are words used by housing advocates to describe the house on sale in Wellington.

bernardchickeysubscribers @bernardchickey2

Where will these extra 5,400 people in Lincoln work, learn and play? Christchurch ie 14,000 vehicle movements a day. So the pressure will come on for a publicly funded motorway...not much climate change change here

stuff.co.nzLarge subdivision plan could transform rapidly growing rural Canterbury townA proposed development on Christchurch’s doorstep aims to turn farmland into 5400 new homes.

bernardchickeysubscribers @bernardchickey2

We'll see a lot more of this as Councils appeal for infrastructure capital help from the Beehive to avoid their own debt rising too much.

stuff.co.nzMayor asks for central Government help with rising dam costsTasman District mayor Tim King has gone cap in hand to the Government seeking help with the escalating costs of the Waimea Community Dam project.

Notable other views

bernardchickeysubscribers @bernardchickey2

Great point here from Janine Starks: 'Worldwide wage subsidies, cash-drops and stimulus packages in the US and Europe in the trillions, mean global sharemarkets are practically underwritten'

stuff.co.nzThe ‘K shaped recovery’: Why you should invest in 2021OPINION: Invest throughout 2021. Five years from now, I don’t believe there will be many regrets.

Worthy longer reads and watches

Jehan Casinader @jehancasinader

The most vulnerable conversation I’ve ever had with a politician. This took guts. @NZStuff

stuff.co.nzTodd Muller on his leadership coup, his ‘breakdown’ and the road back to healthHis mental turmoil cost his job. Now, the former National Party leader reveals exactly what happened.

Q+A @NZQandA

With a doubling time of roughly 35 years, New Zealand’s on track to steadily increase its population in the years to come. What's New Zealand's ideal population? #NZQandA #OurFuture tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-z…

Some fun things

Reuters @Reuters

ICYMI: A German farm is offering people who are feeling deprived of human contact during lockdowns the opportunity to cuddle a sheep

Ian Griffin @iangriffin

Ok this is so cool. Timelapse of the first part of tonight’s ⁦@FlyAirNZ⁩ charter flight to the southern lights from a camera on the flight deck. Wowser! The aurora australis visible before it got dark! #aurora #auroraausttalis #newzealand

Andrew Ward @Andrew_Ward7

My colleagues and I having endorsed each other’s skills on LinkedIn.

John Aravosis 🇺🇸🇬🇷🏳️‍🌈 @aravosis

Wait for it :-)