Dawn chorus: An insurance retreat

A major climate report shows how insurers will 'retreat' from some coastal property; ASB economist calls for bi-partisan 'housing accord'; US, EU economies slow on Covid-19 surge; Orr speaks tonight

TLDR: Amid a cacophony of finger-pointing and blame-gaming over the housing boom, Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr will speak again tonight in a speech about the central bank’s Covid-19 response.

Elsewhere, a Deep South report will be released today showing how insurers will ‘retreat’ from properties vulnerable to rising sea levels. Also, a report from Childrens’ Commissioner Andrew Becroft this morning shows how over 100,000 kids are stuck in cold, mouldy and expensive rental housing and Covid-19 is increasing the numbers of kids living in poverty. He wants more immediate action on housing and welfare benefit increases from the Government.

There are growing calls for a bi-partisan ‘Housing Accord’ to bang political and housing heads together to clear away the political road-blocks to housing demand and supply reform.

Overnight, there were more signs of slowing US and European economies with weak industrial production figures, although there was good news of a near-US$1t stimulus package being agreed in the US Congress now Donald Trump’s power is fading away.

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In our political economy this morning

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

Good piece from @Jamienzherald on Deep South report out today on the scale and timing of the 'Insurance retreat' from houses vulnerable to rising sea levels. nzherald.co.nz/nz/climate-cri…

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

Childrens' Commissioner Andrew Becroft: “About 25% of children live in damp & sometimes mouldy homes, and children living in areas with the highest levels of deprivation are twice as likely to end up in hospital than children in the least deprived areas.”

stuff.co.nzNew report: Not enough food, warm clothes and fresh vegetables - thousands of kids living in povertySimple things like warm clothes, fresh vegetables or just having enough to eat are missing from thousands of children’s lives, according to a newly-released report.

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

@SBrettkelly and @TheDetailNZ get inside the mess at the Tauranga Council

newsroom.co.nzGiving up in TaurangaDisharmony, an attempted coup, nasty texts, childish comments and calling in the big guns - what on earth has been going on at the fractured Tauranga City Council?

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

Thank goodness this one didn't get over the line. “At the time we were keen not to push further dollars towards property investment and do anything that might inflame the housing market,” Robertson said.

stuff.co.nzGive stuggling landlords $500k loans, Government advised in reportFinance Minister rejects report suggesting he extend a generous loan scheme to property developers.

Stuff.co.nz Politics @NZStuffPolitics

Phil Twyford takes leave from Parliament as wife diagnosed with cancer

dlvr.itPhil Twyford takes leave from Parliament as wife diagnosed with cancerThe Labour Minister hasn’t been at Parliament since it resumed last week and is yet to be sworn in as an MP.

In the global political economy overnight

Reuters @Reuters

U.S. bipartisan lawmakers propose $908 billion COVID-19 relief bill reut.rs/3fVuShD

Reuters @Reuters

Euro zone factory growth slowed last month as new lockdown measures hurt demand, according to a survey which showed Germany remained the driving force behind the bloc's manufacturing recovery reut.rs/33yd2wc

Reuters @Reuters

U.S. factory activity slows as COVID-19 infections accelerate reut.rs/3qgXGGj

Reuters @Reuters

Facebook-backed digital coin Libra renamed Diem in quest for approval reut.rs/3lsXXlZ

Reuters @Reuters

British department store group Debenhams is to be liquidated with the potential loss of 12,000 jobs reut.rs/3mrHcc4

Notable alternative views

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

Good call for bipartisan housing action via ASB's Mark Smith: "The blame game needs to stop, & group & self-interest needs to be parked. A housing accord is well overdue, to bring together politicians, policymakers & experts to discuss what could be done."

Chart of the day

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

FYI. NZ's houses now valued 4.0 X NZ GDP. US houses = 1.5 X US GDP. NZ stock market = 0.6 X NZ GDP. US stock market = 1.5 X GDP. Here's a good ASB chart showing how much NZ house values rose in GDP terms each year since 1991. ASB expects another $240b rise in next 2 yrs

Coming up

Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey

Prime time viewing tonight for monetary policy tragics like me and 'Team of 5m' others who care about interest rates and house prices. What else is there? 🤓 @ReserveBankofNZ Governor Adrian Orr talks via Zoom in an ANU lecture about the Covid-19 response. anu.edu.au/events/the-cov…

anu.edu.auThe COVID pandemic: challenges and opportunities facing central banksBy most public health measures, Australia and New Zealand have had relatively very successful responses to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The Reserve Bank of Australia has noted that, “[t]he COVID-19 pandemic is primarily a public health issue, but it is also having a major impact on the economy and…

Weds - Dec 2 Maiden speeches in Parliament.
4.30pm Angela Roberts (Labour list)
4.45pm Vanushi Walters (Labour, Upper Harbour)
5pm Tangi Utikere (Labour, Palmerston North)
5.15pm Terisa Ngobi (Labour, Otaki)
5.30pm Neru Leavasa (Labour, Takanini)
5.45pm Barbara Edmonds (Labour, Mana)

Dec 2 - 7.30pm NZ Time - Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr gives the Sir Leslie Melville Lecture via Zoom at The Australian National University in Canberra. It is promoted on ANU’s website thus: “Some insights into how the RBNZ has perceived and played this important role in New Zealand’s response to the pandemic.”

Thurs - Dec 3 Maiden speeches
4pm Simon Court (Act list)
4.15 pm Camilla Belich (Labour list)
4.30pm Rawiri Waititi (Māori Party, Waiariki)
4.45pm Debbie Ngarewa-Packer (Māori Party list)

Tues, Dec 8
4pm Chris Baillie (Act list)
4.15pm Nicole McKee (Act list)
4.30pm Ricardo Menendez-March (Green Party list)
4.45pm Teanau Tuiono (Green Party list)
5pm Tracey McLellan (Labour, Port Hills)
5.15pm Anna Lorck (Labour, Tukituki)
5.30pm Ayesha Verrall (Labour list)

Dec 9 - Parliament rises for 2020, followed by Press Gallery Party.

Dec 16 - Treasury releases its Half Yearly Fiscal and Economic Update

Dec 17 - Stats NZ publishes Sept qtr GDP

Dec 22 - Final cabinet meeting of 2020

Feb 1 - The Climate Change Commission will release its first draft of the national carbon budget under the Zero Carbon Act.

Have a great day

Ngā Mihi

Bernard

PS Thanks to Jurgen Lehman for today’s pic.

PPS Some fun (ish) things

jon “airships” kudelka @jonkudelka

Magnificent off screen moment after “I feel sorry for Jeremy” could not be more perfect. https://t.co/ka3nfiOKFU

Accidental Partridge @AccidentalP

#AccidentalPartridge https://t.co/vTIVlT0lol

Christopher (Tasmanian cartoonist) Downes @CJDownes

Today’s @themercurycomau cartoon: Ammunition for the Propaganda War