Dawn chorus: A hard bounce
GDP bounces back hard in Sept qtr after NZ executed the hardest but shortest lockdown in the June qtr; Short term pain for long term gain; Ihumātao land bought, but dispute not resolved
TLDR: Morena. GDP figures showed New Zealand’s strategy of locking down the hardest for the shortest time paid off. GDP was hit harder than most in the June quarter, but has bounced back better than other countries with less stringent lockdowns.
The Government finally announced an Ihumātao land purchase, but the detail about what houses will be built where is far from resolved — albeit it is now back in the hands of the affected iwi. The Government will own the land for housing, thus avoiding a precedent that would reopen debate about land bought privately since the Treaty of Waitangi.
Overseas overnight, Emmanuel Macron has Covid-19 and may have passed it on to a couple of other European leaders, Britain has extended its wage subsidy programme for a month and there is a fresh community outbreak of Covid-19 on Sydney’s norther beaches
In our political economy
The Government announced it had agreed a MOU to buy disputed land at Ihumātao from Fletcher Building for $29.9m, which was less than the market price. It also sets up a six-member steering committee to decide what to do with the land, including where to build houses, how many, and who for.
Stats NZ reported September quarter GDP rose 14%, having fallen a revised 11.1% (from 12.2%) in the locked-down June quarter. That meant output in the quarter was actually up 0.2% in the quarter from the September quarter of 2019. However, GDP in the year to the end of September was still down 2.2% from the previous year. The quarterly rise was the largest on record. The annual fall was the largest on record.
As this chart and the two tables below show, New Zealand locked down hardest, was initially hit the hardest (apart from the UK), and bounced back the most to have the healthiest economy by the end of the year. This should end the debate about the best economic strategy. Meanwhile, for all those who favoured a Swedish-style softer lockdown, Sweden’s King said overnight his country’s strategy was terrible and failed. (BBC)
In the global political economy overnight and this morning
A Covid-19 outbreak on Sydney’s Northern Beaches may endanger hopes of a Trans-Tasman travel bubble any time soon. (ABC)
French President Emmanuel Macron has a mild case of Covid-19 and three other European leaders (Portugal, Spain and the EU Council President) have been put into precautionary isolation. The EU begins vaccinations on December 27. (BBC)
Britain extended its wage subsidy programme (Govt pays 80% of furloughed workers’ wages) by a month to April and its business loan programme by two months to the end of March. (BBC)
The EU said Sunday was the absolute latest that a Brexit deal could be done. British cabinet minister Michael Gove said the chances of a deal were less than 50%. (BBC)
Sign of the times news
Charts of the day
Longer reads and listens worth your time
Useful reports
Coming up…
Today - The last Kāka dawn chorus for 2020. I’m off to jump in the sea. Even in Wellington. It’s been that kind of year.
Feb 1 - The Climate Change Commission will release its first draft of the national carbon budget under the Zero Carbon Act
Feb - Global Financial Action Task Force’s mutual evaluation report of New Zealand’s money laundering and terrorism financing compliance is expected in February.
Ngā Mihi
Bernard
PS Have a great summer. I’ll keep posting, but sporadically, and for fun.
PPS Many thanks to MegD for today’s picture from Zealandia, where we should all buy life memberships here. Just $56 for adults and $99 for a family. FYI this wasn’t an ad. I don’t take them. I just love Zealandia.
