Dawn chorus: 17% housing inflation?

Westpac forecasts 17% house price inflation in 2021, despite technical recession in first half of the year;

TLDR: Morena. Westpac’s economists are forecasting another 17% rise in house prices this year before the current surge of housing supply and low migration see prices fall as much as 4% in 2024. Watch out for REINZ’s house price data for January later today.

The first batch of vaccines landed yesterday morning and the first vaccinations of border staff will start on Saturday, but there’s lots of pressure to vaccinate faster and test border staff more often. We’ll get the key test results around 1pm.

Overseas, overnight, Japan’s stock market rose over 30,000 for the first time since 1990 after its economy grew more than forecast. Commodity prices continue to surge higher, raising inflation fears. The NZ 10 year bond yield rose to 1.37% and the 10 year swap rate rose over 1.5% for the first time since March last year. Looks like the window of opportunity to borrow to deal with infrastructure deficits may be closing.

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Briefly in our political ecoomy

Stuff.co.nz Politics @NZStuffPolitics

Coronavirus: Ashley Bloomfield says he wasn't told of any new cases overnight

dlvr.itCoronavirus: Ashley Bloomfield says he wasn’t told of any new cases overnightAshley Bloomfiled says he hasn’t been informed of any new Covid-19 cases overnight

RNZ @radionz

The economy is headed for another shallow recession, according to Westpac Bank economists.

rnz.co.nzEconomy to slow due to Covid-19 tourism downturn - Westpac BankLack of overseas visitors over the summer will cost the country up to 6 percent in GDP and result in the economy contracting by 0.7 percent in the six months to March, Westpac Bank forecasts suggest.

Newsroom @NewsroomNZ

New variants could push Level 3 to its limit dlvr.it/Rsm1XK

RNZ News @rnz_news

Covid-19: National and ACT back calls for saliva testing of border workers

rnz.co.nzCovid-19: National and ACT back calls for saliva testing of border workersOpposition parties are backing calls from leading epidemiologists to make it mandatory for everyone who works at the border to recieve regular Covid-19 saliva tests.

Newstalk ZB @NewstalkZB

#LISTEN Finance Minister explains why financial help isn't coming yet in latest lockdown bit.ly/3rP2YbO

Briefly in the global political economy

Reuters Business @ReutersBiz

Japan's economy grows 12.7% in fourth quarter, beats forecast reut.rs/3u2gICi

BBC Business @BBCBusiness

Pound hits three-year high on Covid vaccination hopes

bbc.inPound hits three-year high on vaccination hopesSterling rises above $1.39 as the vaccine programme raises hopes that lockdown can be eased.

Signs o’ the times news

Kirsty Johnston @kirsty_johnston

This house was built from 43 prefabricated panels made in a factory, then installed in a single day

stuff.co.nzFour-bedroom family home built in just 10 weeksThe house was built from 43 prefabricated panels made in a factory, then installed in a single day

BBC Business @BBCBusiness

Jaguar cars to be all-electric by 2025

bbc.inJaguar car brand to be all-electric by 2025JLR will launch electric models of its entire Jaguar and Land Rover line-up by 2030.

Notable other views

Eric Crampton @EricCrampton

Me @NewsroomNZ ($): roll out the daily covid tests at the border. Do it now. The Illinois SHIELD system is here and working. Don't let the government stall it by using its slow ESR trial of the Yale system.

newsroom.co.nzWe are missing the obvious at the borderWe could and should have learned from developments abroad to tighten our border defences against Covid-19, writes Dr Eric Crampton

The Spectator @spectator

Oliver Hartwich: The myth of Saint Jacinda

spectator.co.ukWhy is Jacinda Ardern still so popular? | The SpectatorEvery time I read another excitable media article about New Zealand’s prime minister Jacinda Ardern, I am reminded of an old quip: ‘Viewed from a distance, everything is beautiful.’ That was Publius Cornelius Tacitus (AD 58-120). Were this Roman intellectual and historian alive today, he would make …

Longer reads worth your time

Nikkei Asia @NikkeiAsia

BRITAIN IN ASIA | THE EMPIRE STRIKES BACK China is skeptical about the UK's departure from the European Union, its new pivot to Asia, and its military ambitions in the Indo-Pacific, which are being compared to a century-old alliance with Meiji-era Japan.

s.nikkei.comAnalysis: A new Anglo-Japanese alliance threatens China’s TPP plansAs London eyes entry into Quad, Beijing looks to New Zealand for opening

Nikkei Asia @NikkeiAsia

MOST READ THIS WEEK | SAMSUNG vs THE SPIES For years, Chinese companies have looked upon the South Korean giant with envy. Here's how they've deployed corporate espionage to catch up.

s.nikkei.comSamsung races to guard its secrets as China rivals close inHeadhunting and corporate espionage threaten tech titan’s global dominance

Newsroom @NewsroomNZ

"For Mahuta, conflicting relationships between states are not the big challenge at hand. Instead, New Zealand’s international opponents are the "complex issues of social exclusion, civil and racial unrest, inequality and poverty"."

newsroom.co.nzMahuta diplomacy focuses on people, not nationsThe new Foreign Affairs Minister outlines a lofty vision that will test our readiness to take on powerful governments, writes Robert Ayson.

Threads worth unravelling

Stephen Diehl @smdiehl

Let's discuss the environmental cost of bitcoin. Because despite all the push for sustainable and green investment in the tech sector, there's a giant smoldering Chernobyl sitting at the heart of Silicon Valley which a lot of investors would prefer you remain quiet about. 🧵 (1/)

Have a great day

Ka kite anō

PS: Thanks to the Orokonui ecosanctuary near Dunedin for today’s kaka chick pic.

PPS Some fun things

Animal Life @animalIife

Just some goats casually defying physics

Yashar Ali 🐘 @yashar

Jenn Gates, a medical school student and the daughter of Bill and Melinda Gates, reveals that she’s received the first dose of the Covid-19 vaccine. She adds in her caption: “Sadly, the vaccine did not implant my genius father into my brain. If only mRNA had that power!”

Courtney Mayhew @courtmayhew

new zealand talking to the rest of the world about their new lockdown.

Jon Erlichman @JonErlichman

How web browser market share changed over 15 years: