Long stories short from our political economy on Wednesday, April 16:
Simeon Brown has attacked1 doctors striking for more than a 1.5% pay rise as already “well remunerated,” even though the $353,500 average salary he cites includes overtime, and hospitals can’t recruit enough doctors, who are being offered more elsewhere. Health NZ is also sacking a fifth of its HR staff.
Public health academics have called for regulation of junk food ads, citing new research showing tamariki are exposed to twice as many junk food ads outdoors as ads for healthy food. The ads increase cases of diabetes and dental problems, adding to hospital demand, the academics also pointed out.
Civil Defence has warned there is a 10% chance of a volcanic eruption in Auckland in the next 50 years causing $65 billion in damage. (See table below)
China ordered its airlines to stop buying planes from Boeing overnight.2
Nick Mowbray said3 overnight Donald Trump’s tariffs would cost Zuru US$3 billion if it continued exporting toys and other products to the United States.
Tourist arrivals to the US slumped 10% in March and are falling faster in early April, which is set to cost billions in lost tourism revenues. (Chart of the day below)
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The big things from our political economy today
Simeon Brown attacks ‘well remunerated’ doctors
Last night Health Minister Simeon Brown lashed back at hospital doctors planning an unprecedented one day strike on May 1 over an offer for a 1.5% pay increase, saying they were already “well remunerated,” and accusing them of “walking away from patients” and “hurting patients.”
He said the strike would lead to thousands of procedures being cancelled.
“They’re well remunerated. They earn on average $343,000 as part of their total package. They have six weeks annual leave per year. They get three months paid sabbatical every six years. Ultimately we need to make sure we’re putting patients first.” Simeon Brown via 1News
Brown may frame the issue as putting patients first, but the Government’s decision to bear down on health spending growth explicitly puts debt reduction, achieving surplus and slightly lower mortgage rates ahead of health spending.
He went on to say via X:
“Striking won't shorten waitlists. Walking off the job won't fix system pressure. But it will delay care for thousands of New Zealanders who've already waited too long.” Simeon Brown said in a long thread via X
The Association of Salaried Medical Specialists (ASMS) executive director Sarah Dalton said the $343,000 figure included superannuation and overtime payments and doctors would much prefer to work their allotted hours and have extra colleagues, which they haven’t had due to hiring freezes last year. Doctors have been working without an agreement since the last one expired in August last year.
NZ kids face twice as many junk food ads as good food ads
Research from New Zealand academics published in an article in this month’s Health Promotion International journal shows children here face twice as many advertisements for junk food outdoors than for healthy food, which is making them sicker and clogging up hospitals, yet the ads aren’t regulated. Here’s an abstract (bolding mine)
“Findings demonstrated children’s exposure to unhealthy food/drink marketing is ubiquitous with clear links to dietary preference and consumption. To improve child health now and over the life course, unhealthy food/drink marketing needs to be subjected to greater restriction with enforceable legislation to protect children from exposure to unhealthy marketing, breaking the chain from exposure to ill health.
“On average, children in NZ are exposed to double the amount of unhealthy food and drink advertisements compared to healthy food and drinks in outdoor settings and it is likely this is impacting health outcomes. The most common chronic condition among children in NZ is dental cavities and recent research conducted in NZ has shown statistically significant links between dietary patterns high in refined starch and sugar (the two most common ingredients in unhealthy food and drink) and dental cavities in children. Furthermore, the incidence of type 2 diabetes in young people is on the rise, particularly for Māori, Pacific and South-Asian ethnicities.” Article by Hayleigh Frost , Lisa Te Morenga , Sally Mackay , Christina McKerchar , Victoria Egli in Health Promotion International: ‘Impact of unhealthy food/drink marketing exposure to children in New Zealand: a systematic narrative review.’
Both National and Labour have refused to regulate such advertising. Lobbyists are unregulated here. Diabetes and poor dental health are major contributors to the crises in our hospital and healthcare systems.
‘10% chance of Auckland volcanic eruption in 50 years’
Civil Defence quietly estimated in a discussion document published yesterday on emergency management legislative reform that there was a 10% risk of a volcanic eruption in Auckland over the next 50 years, which it estimated could cost between $5 billion and $65 billion. (See table below page 5 of document)
It also cited a November, 2023 briefing to its incoming minister that “modelling of well-understood scenarios suggests that over the next 50 years, there is a 97% probability that New Zealand will experience a natural hazard event that causes more than $10 billion in damage.”
Over the last 15 years, Aotearoa has suffered the 2010/11 Christchurch earthquakes ($38 billion), the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake ($5 billion) and Cyclone Gabrielle ($14.5 billion). 97% sounds about right then.
My Pick ‘n’ Mix Six for Wednesday, April 16
Infrastructure & housing news from Hamilton via RNZ’s Nine to Noon: Property developers stuck with empty sites after council blocks development
Good news via RNZ’s Checkpoint from Hastings: Social supermarket helping feed struggling families
Good news via Mary Afemata for LDR/1News: Families join food scraps revolution – and share how to avoid maggots. Auckland's food scraps are helping to cut landfill waste, reduce emissions, and reuse organic material as energy and fertiliser.
Column by Simon Wilson in NZ Herald-$: How not to fix the social housing crisis
Geopolitics news via Reuters: At China's largest trade fair, exporters say US markets are 'frozen'
Geopolitics investigation via Reuters: Inside North Korea’s vast operation to help Russia’s war on Ukraine
Must-read of the day
Global economics deep-dive via WSJ (Gift) How the U.S. Lost Its Place as the World’s Manufacturing Powerhouse
Key detail and chart (bolding mine):
The U.S. now exports in excess of $1 trillion-worth of services—far more than any other country. Moreover, America’s services exports are undercounted as a result of companies moving overseas the rights to intellectual property developed in the U.S.—like patents and trademarks—for tax purposes. (Ireland, a prime destination for those rights, is counted as the world’s fourth-largest services exporter.)
In new research, Hanson and Enrico Moretti find that in 1980 manufacturing accounted for 39% of the U.S. jobs where workers earned high wages (after adjusting for factors such as education). By 2021 that had dropped to 20%. Over the same period, the share of high-paying jobs in the finance, professional and legal industries jumped from 8% to 26%. WSJ (Gift) How the U.S. Lost Its Place as the World’s Manufacturing Powerhouse
Quote of the day: Health NZ to cut 338 HR roles
“These cuts make no sense when the delivery of health services is being held back by unfilled vacancies right across an extremely stretched health system.” Public Service Association national secretary Fleur Fitzsimons via RNZ
Number of the day: Seven new migrants
Seven - The number of successful applicants for the new Active Investor Plus ‘golden visa’ programme since it opened on April 1. There have been 21 new applicants and the seven successful applicants plan to invest at least $35 million here. RNZ
Chart of the day: The find out stage
Cartoons of the day: Frying pan meets fire
Timeline-cleansing nature pic
Ka kite ano.
Bernard
RNZ Checkpoint interview: 'Unfeasible': Nick Mowbray says Trump's tariffs would cost Zuru $3b
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