NZIER survey finds gap between business' awful experienced activity & still-hopeful expectations widens again to record-high -35%; Lack of demand fears at 11-year high; Architects' confidence slumps
Very informative thanks Bernard. Economy indicators all going down. I suspected business’ were ranting positivity because of their COC bias. I wonder when any of the COCs with any intellect will ring Willis in and get the infrastructure industry ‘back on track’. Over 700 construction companies in liquidation in the last year I read!
Agree. The consistent history in the survey shows that the responses are more about showing support for right wing free market policy planks than actually forecasting outcomes.
And therein lies the destructive power of constant ‘spin’. Luxon and Luxon’s government has a capacity for delusion that is biblical. His malfunctioning coalition has demonstrated beyond all doubt that defeat can indeed be snatched from the jaws of victory. Rather than supporting a soft landing and tending the green shoots of economic growth, this government-of-dysfunction has misunderstood its own pre election promise, which was to get the country ‘back-on-track’.
Instead, they have chosen to stoke the boilers of division, ignore its citizens, vandalise economic activity, herd the nation’s talent to Australia, act with bad intent, unleash cruelty, make a meal out of everything except school lunches, and generally anger the only people in the world more difficult to upset than Canadians.
I’m happy to call it, I am calling it. PM Christopher ‘Spinner’ Luxon has failed, his government has failed. He has absolutely no idea how to reinstate success. The ‘Titanic’s’ hull is fatally compromised. In my dreams, Christopher Luxon takes a leaf out of Captain Edward Smith’s book and goes down with the ship. Country and Western music is playing. As he submerges into irrelevance he leaves mass casualties behind along with the flotsam and jetsam of his tenure.
A short time after, the sun heats the sky, there is light, it’s a new day. The rescue operation can commence. The green shoots are still there, New Zealand just needs a government and leaders who are capable enough and care deeply enough to nurture their growth.
Hello Bernard, this is so similar to the "vote for a dog with a blue bow." To paraphrase, I think they are suffering from "delusion syndrome". If you vote for people locally and nationally, you "hope" they will improve "settings". Business sees Labour as "wage rises kiwi saver rises and checks and balances for safety and worker conditions." They see National as "lessening regulations lowering worker wages and rules." improving their margins. However, they don't see austerity from a National Government as tightening the money supply which means the customer base suffers, and the shrinking employment market means people stop being customers by leaving the country.
This is a pattern. National spend their donor largess telling supporters what they want to hear, and they also use weaker groups as whipping boys to divide. How do you improve business when charges skyrocket for insurance rates water electricity rents and business compliance? National offer tax cuts. Tightening what is available to spend on infrastructure, so then businesses moan about road cones and safety fencing, necessary to fix old infrastructure. The pattern continues. They will still continue to vote for the failed blue model. They are like Pavlov's dogs. Conditioned from birth, and reinforced by age conservatism. imo. PS (I have been sick so have not joined in for nearly 3 weeks ) Patricia Bremner. Expectations do colour predictions in surveys imo.
The chart of the day of factors limiting expansion - is the net balance (y) axis showing the % contribution of each of the 4 factors in limiting expansion? Presumably expansion of GDP?
Perhaps the problem lies with the framing of the question regarding future confidence. The question may need to be asked in relation to existing outcomes . After all everyone is entitled to hope for a better future.
I really hope the $18 butter and growing foodbank queues spark some real debate from our leaders about food security in this country.
How does a country that grows enough food to feed over 40 million people end up with foodbanks under pressure and families struggling to put food on the table?
Maslow’s hierarchy of needs comes to mind. Without food, shelter and warmth, everything else like education, employment and social connection becomes much harder to reach. Especially in winter, it feels like we’re failing far too many in our communities on all three fronts.
We could be doing more. Other countries allocate a portion of key food staples for the domestic market before export, to protect local supply and keep prices stable. Some even reinvest a share of export earnings to subsidise locally sourced food. These are practical approaches that could easily be implemented here.
THEY DON'T CARE. I think I hate them. The things they are doing, and they themselves, make me so angry. I have lived for a long time and I can't remember feeling this way about our government, ever.
Sorry for the caps.
And thank you, Bernard, for keeping us up to date.
We are fed packhouse rejects at global premium prices, I believe it's a 'nod and wink' deal between government and producers. The primary purpose of exports as far as government is concerned is to garner much needed foreign exchange. Even at minimum profit margins this is necessary to purchase the fuel, fertiliser etc. that primary producers and everyone else needs. Because this needs to happen even if margins on exports are low, food for local markets will be wholesaled at world market prices notwithstanding lower costs related to lower freight charges and the 'non-premium' nature of what appears at most outlets. This represents a significant benefit to the producers both as a profitable 'top-up' captive market and outlet for less desirable cuts. $21/kg for beef-mince ffs! Compliance costs for those attempting 'local market only' alternatives generally make such projects unattractive.
I know people in the food industry. In times where the overseas beef market wasn’t doing well and there was an oversupply of prime beef cuts (like the stuff in the locked cooler at Moore Wilson here in Wellington), the prices for those prime cuts have not been reduced in NZ, but the prime beef was used for beef mince (best case) and dog food (worst case) instead.
Great explanation, thanks Bernard. Really shows how poor business is at risk analysis in NZ. Possibly a severe lack of critical thinking ability? Kind of embarrassing.
Honestly, I realized the measure of Business confidence, a few years ago, is basically useless. I remember under Adern, they had a very low confidence in the economy, but in the details, they were looking to hire more workers, a near record. Isn't that contradictory. You don't hire the more people if you don't think you expect to need more people.
It was an obvious disconnect, that made me conclude it is a load of rubbish.
Very informative thanks Bernard. Economy indicators all going down. I suspected business’ were ranting positivity because of their COC bias. I wonder when any of the COCs with any intellect will ring Willis in and get the infrastructure industry ‘back on track’. Over 700 construction companies in liquidation in the last year I read!
Agree. The consistent history in the survey shows that the responses are more about showing support for right wing free market policy planks than actually forecasting outcomes.
seeing all the wellington CBD businesses closing down......they voted for it. The government has them angry at bike lanes.
And therein lies the destructive power of constant ‘spin’. Luxon and Luxon’s government has a capacity for delusion that is biblical. His malfunctioning coalition has demonstrated beyond all doubt that defeat can indeed be snatched from the jaws of victory. Rather than supporting a soft landing and tending the green shoots of economic growth, this government-of-dysfunction has misunderstood its own pre election promise, which was to get the country ‘back-on-track’.
Instead, they have chosen to stoke the boilers of division, ignore its citizens, vandalise economic activity, herd the nation’s talent to Australia, act with bad intent, unleash cruelty, make a meal out of everything except school lunches, and generally anger the only people in the world more difficult to upset than Canadians.
I’m happy to call it, I am calling it. PM Christopher ‘Spinner’ Luxon has failed, his government has failed. He has absolutely no idea how to reinstate success. The ‘Titanic’s’ hull is fatally compromised. In my dreams, Christopher Luxon takes a leaf out of Captain Edward Smith’s book and goes down with the ship. Country and Western music is playing. As he submerges into irrelevance he leaves mass casualties behind along with the flotsam and jetsam of his tenure.
A short time after, the sun heats the sky, there is light, it’s a new day. The rescue operation can commence. The green shoots are still there, New Zealand just needs a government and leaders who are capable enough and care deeply enough to nurture their growth.
And in a couple of years time comes the final joke of this sad, disastrous period:
A knighthood for Mr. Luxon... and potentially other members of the coalition of destroyers.
We could reinstate Helen Clark government decision to abolish knighthood/dame titles. test a thought.
Of course, that fix is already in.
Literally biblical in some thinking.
Prosperity Christian biblical Barry…no actual Christianity in sight. Just the stuff you see in The Handmaiden’s Gilead. Praise be, under his eye.
I have my own business and I'm not confident...
Hello Bernard, this is so similar to the "vote for a dog with a blue bow." To paraphrase, I think they are suffering from "delusion syndrome". If you vote for people locally and nationally, you "hope" they will improve "settings". Business sees Labour as "wage rises kiwi saver rises and checks and balances for safety and worker conditions." They see National as "lessening regulations lowering worker wages and rules." improving their margins. However, they don't see austerity from a National Government as tightening the money supply which means the customer base suffers, and the shrinking employment market means people stop being customers by leaving the country.
This is a pattern. National spend their donor largess telling supporters what they want to hear, and they also use weaker groups as whipping boys to divide. How do you improve business when charges skyrocket for insurance rates water electricity rents and business compliance? National offer tax cuts. Tightening what is available to spend on infrastructure, so then businesses moan about road cones and safety fencing, necessary to fix old infrastructure. The pattern continues. They will still continue to vote for the failed blue model. They are like Pavlov's dogs. Conditioned from birth, and reinforced by age conservatism. imo. PS (I have been sick so have not joined in for nearly 3 weeks ) Patricia Bremner. Expectations do colour predictions in surveys imo.
The chart of the day of factors limiting expansion - is the net balance (y) axis showing the % contribution of each of the 4 factors in limiting expansion? Presumably expansion of GDP?
Labour need to be yelling this from the rooftops - about the long term evidence that they do better with the economy!
Interesting chat this morning Bernard.
Perhaps the problem lies with the framing of the question regarding future confidence. The question may need to be asked in relation to existing outcomes . After all everyone is entitled to hope for a better future.
I love the headline.
I really hope the $18 butter and growing foodbank queues spark some real debate from our leaders about food security in this country.
How does a country that grows enough food to feed over 40 million people end up with foodbanks under pressure and families struggling to put food on the table?
Maslow’s hierarchy of needs comes to mind. Without food, shelter and warmth, everything else like education, employment and social connection becomes much harder to reach. Especially in winter, it feels like we’re failing far too many in our communities on all three fronts.
We could be doing more. Other countries allocate a portion of key food staples for the domestic market before export, to protect local supply and keep prices stable. Some even reinvest a share of export earnings to subsidise locally sourced food. These are practical approaches that could easily be implemented here.
THEY DON'T CARE. I think I hate them. The things they are doing, and they themselves, make me so angry. I have lived for a long time and I can't remember feeling this way about our government, ever.
Sorry for the caps.
And thank you, Bernard, for keeping us up to date.
Don't apologise Summerhaze. You could have written your entire message in caps and been entirely appropriate.
We are fed packhouse rejects at global premium prices, I believe it's a 'nod and wink' deal between government and producers. The primary purpose of exports as far as government is concerned is to garner much needed foreign exchange. Even at minimum profit margins this is necessary to purchase the fuel, fertiliser etc. that primary producers and everyone else needs. Because this needs to happen even if margins on exports are low, food for local markets will be wholesaled at world market prices notwithstanding lower costs related to lower freight charges and the 'non-premium' nature of what appears at most outlets. This represents a significant benefit to the producers both as a profitable 'top-up' captive market and outlet for less desirable cuts. $21/kg for beef-mince ffs! Compliance costs for those attempting 'local market only' alternatives generally make such projects unattractive.
I know people in the food industry. In times where the overseas beef market wasn’t doing well and there was an oversupply of prime beef cuts (like the stuff in the locked cooler at Moore Wilson here in Wellington), the prices for those prime cuts have not been reduced in NZ, but the prime beef was used for beef mince (best case) and dog food (worst case) instead.
Bernard, you forgot the most important news, most significant of our generation... Jaffas are being discontinued! 😉😉😉😝
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/565660/iconic-jaffas-to-be-discontinued-for-good-after-decline-in-sales
Totally agree Christina, vitally important news. What am going to roll down the cinema aisle now?
Joking aside, it is yet another indicator of hard times ahead. 😵💫👍
Cannot help think the repeated references to our current “centre right” government don’t accurately reflect this group of far right sociopaths?
Great explanation, thanks Bernard. Really shows how poor business is at risk analysis in NZ. Possibly a severe lack of critical thinking ability? Kind of embarrassing.
Honestly, I realized the measure of Business confidence, a few years ago, is basically useless. I remember under Adern, they had a very low confidence in the economy, but in the details, they were looking to hire more workers, a near record. Isn't that contradictory. You don't hire the more people if you don't think you expect to need more people.
It was an obvious disconnect, that made me conclude it is a load of rubbish.
Many thanks to paying subscribers for permission to open this one up for public sharing, reading and listening. Chocks away!