Enrolment of 18-24 year olds for Nov 7 election collapses to 53% from 70%; Over 200,000 young people not enrolled = more than voted NZ First in 2023; Auckland Council vote turnout under 20% for young
For Goldsmith, the local election results were clearly a template for his voter suppression laws. The government is skirting with illegitimacy and resulting serious civil unrest if they win a closely contested election by less than the number of voters they've disenfranchised.
That is really interesting that the jump in enrollments between 18 - 24 and 25 - 29 is absolutely enormous, and that for almost all other groups the % has actually been tracking up over the past couple of cycles.
Infuriating that so many people will be surprised to find out they can't vote on election day. We should be doing as much as we can to get high voting rates to protect the legitimacy of our democracy.
And it seems to be falling to parties (on the left) to get this message across. If this is about speeding up the process, not disenfranchisement, then why is there not messaging everywhere that it's different to last time, you CAN'T vote unless you have enrolled, and here is the cut off date, don't miss out!
As usual this is both illuminating and disturbing. The youth vote should help to shape our and their futures. Maybe not voting reflects the fact they don’t see a future for themselves here. There is also a risk that NZ First claiming a New Right for young will attract the disaffected and lead to more division. Winston’s racial outburst underlines this.
This is major issue that current government has disenfranchised citizens who now cannot enrol on election day. Also why is there not hoardings everywhere in NZ
It would be interesting to see how many of those bills from the last Labour government over the (worst) COVID period are linked to the "urgency count". In my opinion this was legitimate urgency - saving thousands of people's lives.
While bills re. reversing smoking policies and tax-cuts for big tobacco not announced earlier, like pre-election, surely didn't really require urgency - slowly killing smokers and rewarding it with tax-cuts.
1. A few weeks ago, I heard that the electoral commission sending out Electoral material including Easy Vote cards to email addresses instead of postal addresses if the Commission had emails for people the reason given is because of the state of the postal service. This will disenfranchise people more!!
2, The use of Urgency this term is a result of those in power having little regard for the democratic process and the incredible number of people in power that have little experience of being in Government.
In the neoliberal world this government and opposition inhabits, public services are seen as potentially sales & private profit opportunities. The phrase public services is a ‘dirty word’ to so many politicians.
This election is about tax. That's why young people are disengaged, because young people get more from tax 'spending' [sic] than is taken from them in tax forfeiture... They know that, and yet they are watching a bunch of "got-mine"-ism from middle-aged+ voters who are propping up a coalition of parties who have otherwise objectively failed to represent our democratic desires and country's best interests at every opportunity. A huge chunk of our population are signalling that they don't care about anyone but themselves, and young people are savvy enough to have noticed.
All the party promises about economic management, health, migration, culture-wars, etc is just a sideshow. For a great many people in our largest voting block, the cost of living problem has a perceived solution, which is “more money in my OWN bank account”; and, while that is an idea that has been manufactured, it's hard to argue with the logic of it. National’s narrative that they won’t partner with anyone wanting to “increase taxes on working people”, while the left bloc is hounded for its half-hearted CGT, wealth, and LVT taxes—all misunderstood and easily mischaracterisable—is the sole reason why this disastrous coalition is in contention in this election at all! For a young person, it's hard not to feel hopeless when faced with that reality.
What is clear is that strategists in Labour (bewilderingly-hostile to the Green’s super-rich tax), and National (reverse-psychology tax advertising for left-wing parties) have actually realised this. But our mainstream media have been so enamoured by "lolly scrambles", “kingmaking”, and “radical centrism” that they haven't yet caught up. We're not talking enough about this.
The fundamental problem with a modern 'tax election' is that the average punter has had their perspective on tax so totally addled by “household” myths and misinformation that they won't countenance any policy they 'believe' will cost them a single extra cent today for some future generation's benefit... Is it any wonder that young people are checking out of this one?
Luxon’s comments on the role of government show how far right wing they are. Believing the government is not responsible for stability during a crisis is ACT party policies
Rather than bleat and promise to reverse Paul Goldsmith's registration-restricting act, the Opposition parties ought to be campaigning for automatic enrolment of everyone entitled, and required by law, to be enrolled.
The Electoral Act 1993, section 82, requires everyone to register to vote within a month of becoming eligible (and 17-year-olds can register before they turn 18). There's even a $100 fine for not registering. Ditto for changing electorate.
The law should be amended to require the Government to try to identify everyone who ought to be on the electoral roll but isn't, and register them, including all those 17-year-olds. There could be a requirement that whenever anyone has contact with a state agency (Education, Health, Police, MSD, IRD) there's a cross-check to ensure that the person is properly enrolled if eligible. That wouldn't net everyone, but it would reduce the number of unenrolled.
The objection will be raised that some people would be automatically placed by default on the general roll when they might have chosen to be on the Māori roll. But that would be happening only because they had not chosen anything; and at least they would be enrolled and their party vote be counted.
Next step for effective participatory democracy after automatic enrolment: compulsory voting, which Australia has had for more than a century, for federal, state, and now in some states local-body, elections.
One of the few good things in last year's Electoral Amendment Act was that it introduced provisions to allow automatic enrolment. This is expected to make a difference in enrolment for the 2029 election.
Agree automatic enrolment is excellent & very possible through government agencies as you state. We monitor people to drive vehicles, cannot be that technically difficult to ensure electoral registration.
Where are all the enrol now! Campaigns. I know our local labour mp is door knocking with enrolment forms. Unfortunately it’s not the demographic that should be targeted in my area. I hope they doing it nz wide?
Thanks for opening this Bernard. As a paying subscriber, I’m getting value for money when a wider audience reads this critical analysis
Each passing day the illusion that real power lies in parliament is further exposed. Not that walking away is the answer. The four big banks will continue Toto shift $1.5bn of our hard earned money offshore every quarter regardless of who wins which seats in November. We need to build a movement to stop the oligarchs
This organized voter suppression is quite terrifying. Adding to my concern is the implication by Seniors Minister Casey Costello in the monthly Seniors Newsletter that "You must enrol, or update your address if you've moved, by Sunday 25 October". Does this mean that being registered at an old address will invalidate your vote? Hopefully I am "barking at shadows" and she or MSD (who prepares the Newsletter) are simply incompetent. But that's what it says.
For Goldsmith, the local election results were clearly a template for his voter suppression laws. The government is skirting with illegitimacy and resulting serious civil unrest if they win a closely contested election by less than the number of voters they've disenfranchised.
More right-wing gerrymandering, same techniques as that idiot in the White House is using.
That is really interesting that the jump in enrollments between 18 - 24 and 25 - 29 is absolutely enormous, and that for almost all other groups the % has actually been tracking up over the past couple of cycles.
Infuriating that so many people will be surprised to find out they can't vote on election day. We should be doing as much as we can to get high voting rates to protect the legitimacy of our democracy.
And it seems to be falling to parties (on the left) to get this message across. If this is about speeding up the process, not disenfranchisement, then why is there not messaging everywhere that it's different to last time, you CAN'T vote unless you have enrolled, and here is the cut off date, don't miss out!
We could all join the Action Station campaign to this effect.
As usual this is both illuminating and disturbing. The youth vote should help to shape our and their futures. Maybe not voting reflects the fact they don’t see a future for themselves here. There is also a risk that NZ First claiming a New Right for young will attract the disaffected and lead to more division. Winston’s racial outburst underlines this.
This is major issue that current government has disenfranchised citizens who now cannot enrol on election day. Also why is there not hoardings everywhere in NZ
'ENROL NOW' . At Rail Stations on buses etc.
Then young people might enrol - can't have that!
Re. Bills passed under urgency
It would be interesting to see how many of those bills from the last Labour government over the (worst) COVID period are linked to the "urgency count". In my opinion this was legitimate urgency - saving thousands of people's lives.
While bills re. reversing smoking policies and tax-cuts for big tobacco not announced earlier, like pre-election, surely didn't really require urgency - slowly killing smokers and rewarding it with tax-cuts.
This is surely it.
Lovely Kaka pic. A few comments today
1. A few weeks ago, I heard that the electoral commission sending out Electoral material including Easy Vote cards to email addresses instead of postal addresses if the Commission had emails for people the reason given is because of the state of the postal service. This will disenfranchise people more!!
2, The use of Urgency this term is a result of those in power having little regard for the democratic process and the incredible number of people in power that have little experience of being in Government.
This doesn't bode well for us
That is a great point about the Postal service. It is seen as profit centre. It should be seen as a public service.
I just wait for the moment it's sold as part of of their asset recycling and then it ends up like the royal mail in Britain.
I've always thought this.
In the neoliberal world this government and opposition inhabits, public services are seen as potentially sales & private profit opportunities. The phrase public services is a ‘dirty word’ to so many politicians.
Excellent Vicky
I came across “taboo education” on you tube recently,I highly recommend one of their videos
“Why are Americans so bloody dumb”
This explains alot
How about us old farts get together and get a stack of Enrol cards and set up a table at local high schools? Who’s with me?
This election is about tax. That's why young people are disengaged, because young people get more from tax 'spending' [sic] than is taken from them in tax forfeiture... They know that, and yet they are watching a bunch of "got-mine"-ism from middle-aged+ voters who are propping up a coalition of parties who have otherwise objectively failed to represent our democratic desires and country's best interests at every opportunity. A huge chunk of our population are signalling that they don't care about anyone but themselves, and young people are savvy enough to have noticed.
All the party promises about economic management, health, migration, culture-wars, etc is just a sideshow. For a great many people in our largest voting block, the cost of living problem has a perceived solution, which is “more money in my OWN bank account”; and, while that is an idea that has been manufactured, it's hard to argue with the logic of it. National’s narrative that they won’t partner with anyone wanting to “increase taxes on working people”, while the left bloc is hounded for its half-hearted CGT, wealth, and LVT taxes—all misunderstood and easily mischaracterisable—is the sole reason why this disastrous coalition is in contention in this election at all! For a young person, it's hard not to feel hopeless when faced with that reality.
What is clear is that strategists in Labour (bewilderingly-hostile to the Green’s super-rich tax), and National (reverse-psychology tax advertising for left-wing parties) have actually realised this. But our mainstream media have been so enamoured by "lolly scrambles", “kingmaking”, and “radical centrism” that they haven't yet caught up. We're not talking enough about this.
The fundamental problem with a modern 'tax election' is that the average punter has had their perspective on tax so totally addled by “household” myths and misinformation that they won't countenance any policy they 'believe' will cost them a single extra cent today for some future generation's benefit... Is it any wonder that young people are checking out of this one?
Luxon’s comments on the role of government show how far right wing they are. Believing the government is not responsible for stability during a crisis is ACT party policies
Rather than bleat and promise to reverse Paul Goldsmith's registration-restricting act, the Opposition parties ought to be campaigning for automatic enrolment of everyone entitled, and required by law, to be enrolled.
The Electoral Act 1993, section 82, requires everyone to register to vote within a month of becoming eligible (and 17-year-olds can register before they turn 18). There's even a $100 fine for not registering. Ditto for changing electorate.
The law should be amended to require the Government to try to identify everyone who ought to be on the electoral roll but isn't, and register them, including all those 17-year-olds. There could be a requirement that whenever anyone has contact with a state agency (Education, Health, Police, MSD, IRD) there's a cross-check to ensure that the person is properly enrolled if eligible. That wouldn't net everyone, but it would reduce the number of unenrolled.
The objection will be raised that some people would be automatically placed by default on the general roll when they might have chosen to be on the Māori roll. But that would be happening only because they had not chosen anything; and at least they would be enrolled and their party vote be counted.
Next step for effective participatory democracy after automatic enrolment: compulsory voting, which Australia has had for more than a century, for federal, state, and now in some states local-body, elections.
One of the few good things in last year's Electoral Amendment Act was that it introduced provisions to allow automatic enrolment. This is expected to make a difference in enrolment for the 2029 election.
Agree automatic enrolment is excellent & very possible through government agencies as you state. We monitor people to drive vehicles, cannot be that technically difficult to ensure electoral registration.
Could census data be used as a starting point?
Where are all the enrol now! Campaigns. I know our local labour mp is door knocking with enrolment forms. Unfortunately it’s not the demographic that should be targeted in my area. I hope they doing it nz wide?
Thanks for opening this Bernard. As a paying subscriber, I’m getting value for money when a wider audience reads this critical analysis
Each passing day the illusion that real power lies in parliament is further exposed. Not that walking away is the answer. The four big banks will continue Toto shift $1.5bn of our hard earned money offshore every quarter regardless of who wins which seats in November. We need to build a movement to stop the oligarchs
Worthwhile reporting Bernard.
This organized voter suppression is quite terrifying. Adding to my concern is the implication by Seniors Minister Casey Costello in the monthly Seniors Newsletter that "You must enrol, or update your address if you've moved, by Sunday 25 October". Does this mean that being registered at an old address will invalidate your vote? Hopefully I am "barking at shadows" and she or MSD (who prepares the Newsletter) are simply incompetent. But that's what it says.