1. PM Christopher Luxon’s leadership of the National caucus may be challenged in the next fortnight of Parliament, the NZ Herald’s Thomas Coughlan reports this morning. He reports National’s Chief Whip Stuart Smith was ghosted by Luxon in the last sitting block of Parliament when Smith wanted to notify Luxon of caucus discontent1. Stuff’s Jenna Lynch also reports leadership ructions.

2. Is Luxon gaslighting NZ on the fuel crisis? Luxon says there is ‘no risk of disruption to our future fuel supply,’ but fuel stocks fell by three days in the time between last Wednesday and last Sunday. Without rationing, New Zealand’s stocks are set to hit dangerously low levels within six weeks2.

3. The IRD published the final version this week of its once-every-three-years Long Term Insights Briefing, including damning evidence that New Zealand’s tax base is over-reliant on GST and PAYE because it leaves capital income mostly untaxed. That puts a heavier tax burden on the poor, relative to other OECD countries. The IRD suggested a GST hike offset by credits for poorer consumers to help pay for the fiscal effects of an ageing population. It looked at an option for a ‘dual’ income tax system where income from labour was taxed at a higher rate than income from capital. It also pointed to the vast inequality in wealth from land ownership, and looked at taxes on land values, wealth and capital gains. But it decided eventually these taxes would hurt current land and wealth owners too much, and that the GST hike with offsets for poorer families was a better option.

4. The IRD has published results of a survey of firms in December that showed most either didn’t know enough about the ‘Investment Boost’ tax break to use it, or aren’t investing extra in their business anyway. Of those that did know about the ability to claim 20% of an asset’s value in the first year and were investing, 40% said it had helped them decide to invest. However, poor economic conditions had mostly offset the boost, with 30% saying the economy discouraged investment.

5. Tauranga City Council has started fining homeless people for living in their cars in parks near where cruise ships arrive, effectively using parking, car registration and dog control fines as a type of ‘move on’ order before legislation is passed3. Ayla Yeoman reported on the fines this week for LDR/RNZ, including Tauranga Marina manager Greg Prescott saying the marina had been pushing the council to move homeless people from Keith Allen Drive, citing alcohol and drug use, abuse and mess. “We have a lot of foreign folks coming into the marina from all over the world, and it’s a really bad look,” Prescott said.

6. This year’s AUT survey of media consumption in Aotearoa has found the first improvement in trust in mainstream news outlets in six years, with Interest and Newsroom4coming in fourth-equal for most trusted, behind RNZ, the ODT and TVNZ’s 1News in that order.5

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Chorusfridayapril1720262

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The Top Six Pick’n Mix for this morning

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1. The US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has began, with two sanctioned oil tankers passing through, but several others turning back. The double blockade is expected to cut oil supplies by a further two million barrels a day to 11 million a day. Oil prices fell overnight on talk of new ceasefire talks within days1.

2. The IMF issued its ‘Spring’ forecasts for global growth and inflation overnight, saying a global recession was possible if oil prices stayed above US$100/barrel for the rest of the year2.

3. The IMF forecast that New Zealand’s inflation rate would rise in line with world inflation over the next couple of years, as it did after Covid, challenging the National-led Government’s view from 2023 until this year that New Zealand inflation was caused by the previous Labour Government’s spending, and that therefore the best response to high inflation was a Government spending freeze.

4. Kiwibank Chief Economist Jarrod Kerr yesterday argued against big and early OCR hikes this year in a note in the wake of ANZ’s forecast change on Monday to seeing three hikes before the election3. He wrote the hikes would be reckless.

5. The FTA with India is facing new headwinds in Parliament, with Labour Leader Chris Hipkins again challenging the deal around student visas4. National needs Labour’s support to pass the FTA because NZ First is opposed.

6. Simplicity Economist Shamubeel Eaqub has hit out at the Government’s ‘do nothing’ fuel plan5. He described it to The Post-$ this morning as: “Do nothing, do nothing, do nothing, and then, oh f..k”.

Here’s the slide presentation I’ll use in the Substack Live at this link at 9:00 am today. It’s in PDF form rather than Powerpoint/Keynote form. The recorded video version is sent out soon after via email to paying subscribers. Please comment below with questions before 9am I’ll try to answer them in the Substack Live. Subscribe as a paying subscriber to join the Substack Live and see the presentation preview.

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Choruswednesdayapril152026

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The Top Six Pick’n Mix for Wednesday, April 15

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1. Oil prices are back at US$100/barrel with no end in sight to the (now two) blockades on oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz1.

2. ANZ now sees the Reserve Bank hiking the OCR three times before the election2.

3. The BusinessNZ-BNZ survey of the services sector found it contracted sharply and for a second month running in March.

4. The latest MBIE fuel stocks update showed falls in supplies in petrol, diesel and jet fuel in the three days to last Wednesday. The last ship is still due on April 23 and stocks are still due to run out in late May without new ships or rationing3.

5. In another challenge for the Reserve Bank, one coffee shop in Wellington is considering putting a fuel surcharge on its coffees and scones4.

6. In today’s Deep-dive of the day, Kate Newton reports for RNZ that just as climate change ramps up the cost to Government, insurers, households and businesses into the billions each year, the Government is restricting funding for scientists trying to work out the effects of extreme weather.

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The Top Six Pick’n Mix for Tuesday, April 14

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1. Donald Trump says the US Navy will now blockade ships entering or exiting the Strait of Hormuz to stop Iran collecting tolls. He says the US Navy will also stop tankers on the high seas that have already paid tolls1.

2. China has banned the export of sulphuric acid, acting to preserve its own supplies now a third of global sulphur production is trapped inside the Strait of Hormuz. It is a key component used to produce copper and fertilizer, adding to food inflation and shortages of gear for electricity networks and data centres2.

3. Scoop of the day: Treasury is set to forecast New Zealand’s inflation rate could rise as high as 7.5%, which is well above the Reserve Bank’s current forecast for a rise to 4.2% in the June quarter and above the 3.7% disclosed last month by Finance Minister Nicola Willis, Vernon Small wrote in his column for the Sunday Star Times-$3.

4. Property experts are warning4 of big falls in townhouse prices, suggesting they are responsible for falling house prices. But a closer look shows their prices haven’t fallen much more than other types of housing, and have barely fallen at all in the South Island, where the complaints come from.

5. Fuel update due: This afternoon MBIE will publish its latest update of New Zealand’s fuel stocks as of last Wednesday5. Meanwhile, our largest supplier of fuel, South Korea, is reported to have sharply cut exports of jet fuel, but its also reassuring customers it has secured crude supplies from Kazakhstan. Also, Australian PM Anthony Albanese is visiting Malaysia and Brunei this week to secure fuel supplies.

6. Deep-dive of the day: The era of free movement of shipping on the seas is ending, which is adding to inflationary pressures, the WSJ-$ (gift)6 writes.

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Chorusmondayapril132026

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The Top Six Pick’n Mix for Monday, April 13

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1. Trump threatened to erase Iran. Then he capitulated. Now we all pay.

2. Luxon said Trump’s threat was ‘unhelpful.’ But he’s relaxed about fuel stocks.

3. New Zealanders are now paying an extra $200 million per week for fuel imports.

4. The RBNZ threatened ‘timely & decisive’ rate hikes. Two are expected in 2026.

5. National and Labour fell in the first April poll. NZ First rose closer to 15%.

6. Business leaders called ever louder for faster de-carbonisation of the economy.

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The Top Six Pick ’n Mix for Saturday, April 11

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1. Donald Trump told1 Benjamin Netanyahu last night to dial back Israel’s strikes on Lebanon, so Israel decided overnight to enter ceasefire talks with Lebanon2, which may strengthen the broader ceasefire aimed at re-opening oil supplies through the Persian Gulf to the refineries in Asia we depend on.

2. However, the Strait of Hormuz is still virtually closed3 this morning because Iran says the ceasefire should have been extended to Lebanon. Just four ships got through the Strait yesterday, which was less than 11 ships that got through the day before the ceasefire. None were oil or LNG tankers. Usually, 150 ships a day pass through the Strait.

3. Transport Minister Chris Bishop has confirmed the Government is scaling back and delaying various RONS programmes to save money. PM Christopher Luxon confirmed as much in Nelson yesterday, The Post-$4 and The Nelson Mail-$5 reported this morning.

4. The Deep-dive of the day is from Teuila Fuatai for RNZ on how thousands of people in Kaikohe are jobless, but have virtually nowhere to go6.

5. The Scoop of the day is from Krystal Gibbens for RNZ on how short-staffing in hospitals is causing injuries to support staff.7

6. In political news, former National Leader Don ‘Gone by lunchtime’ Brash wrote yesterday that it was no longer safe for New Zealand to be an ally of the United States8.

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The Top Six Pick’n Mix for Friday, April 10

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1. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed a day into a two-week ceasefire agreed yesterday because Iran believes the ceasefire should apply to Israel’s attacks on Lebanon, which escalated overnight to their worst in this conflict. Iran also fired more drones and missiles at the Gulf states and Israel overnight1.

2. Oil futures prices fell 15% to US$95/barrel and global stocks rose 3% overnight on hopes the ceasefire might hold and the Strait of Hormuz might reopen some time soon. However, prices of physical Dubai/Oman oil remain over US$120/barrel, with jet fuel prices in Singapore close to US$200/barrel and refined diesel over US$200 barrel as traders envisage months more of disruption and supply shortages.

3. The ceasefire called an hour before Donald Trump’s ‘end of civilisation’ deadline was due to expire is being seen as a US capitulation that leaves the Strait of Hormuz in the hands of Iran and subject to unprecedented tolls on ships in international waters2.

4. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the OCR as expected yesterday3 at 2pm, but admitted the Monetary Policy Committee looked at a hike, albeit none of the committee members argued for it seriously. However, the decision and comments were seen as hawkish by financial markets, which pushed up wholesale interest rates slightly from lows hit earlier in the afternoon in the wake of the ceasefire.

5. Economsts for ASB4 and Westpac5 brought forward their forecasts for the first OCR hike to September from December and added an extra rate hike into their tracks for this year. BNZ and ANZ held their forecasts for September and December rate hikes unchanged, but noted the risks were shifting to an earlier start.

6. An OECD report6 into the cost of long Covid was published last night, showing New Zealand’s long Covid costs in 2021 were the lowest of all countries. However, there are now 200,000 New Zealanders now living with long Covid, while the Government does not have a plan7.

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Chorusthursdayapril92026

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The Top Six Pick’n Mix for Thursday, April 9

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1. US President Donald Trump threatened to destroy all of Iran’s bridges, power plants and water plants once a US primetime deadline of 8pm US Eastern Time (Midday NZ Time today) has passed, saying: “A whole civilisation will die tonight.1” Iran has pulled out of talks and has threatened retaliation beyond the Middle East, saying it will take out oil and gas infrastructure “for years”. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed.

2. PM Christopher Luxon says he’s fine with fuel importer reassurances about new tanker deliveries being on track, saying yesterday: “(I’ve been told) there’s no risk to future orders. We’re very comfortable with where we sit today.2”

3. The last scheduled fuel tanker to arrive is the STI Sanctity3 on April 23 at Marsden Point. With no new tankers or rationing, the stocks reported as of last Wednesday means New Zealand is on track to run out of diesel on May 22, a week before the pre-election Budget.

4. Z Energy last night hiked its diesel price list for commercial customers for this week by 55c to $4.15/litre. Refined diesel futures in Singapore closed last night at US$232/barrel. Luxon yesterday again ruled out fuel excise or diesel RUC cuts4.

5. NZ First’s support rose 3.9% to 13.7% in the first poll result for April. The Taxpayers Union-Curia poll published yesterday found National’s support rose 1.4% to 29.8%, while Labour fell 1% to 33.4% and the Greens fell 2.7% to 7.8%. TOP and Te Pāti Māori were equal on 2.6%.

6. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hold the OCR at its scheduled ‘in-between’ decision at 2pm today5. This decision between full Monetary Policy Statements is usually published without a full set of forecasts or a press conference. But many expect some forecasts today, if only to challenge financial market expectations of two rate hikes before the end of 2026. There is also an online news press conference scheduled for 3pm that I’ll ask questions at.

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Choruswednesdayapril82026pdf

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The Top Six Pick’n Mix for Wednesday, April 8

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1. Iran has rejected a 45-day ceasefire plan and has called instead for a full peace with reparations and Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump responded by threatening to bomb Iran’s power, fuel and water plants ‘back into the Stone Age.’ He denied these strikes would be war crimes, saying ‘they are animals.’1

2. MBIE reported yesterday that diesel stocks here fell 4.1 days to 17.5 days between last Sunday and last Wednesday, but overall diesel and petrol stocks rose, and overall jet fuel stocks fell.

3. The last scheduled fuel tanker to arrive as of last night was the Forever Glory, which is coming from South Korea and is scheduled to dock in Tauranga on April 22. Without new ships or rationing, diesel would run out on May 222.

4. A report for MBIE has found the Government’s plan to double tourism exports to $20 billion from an extra one million tourists by 2034 is lacking up to $3.5 billion in infrastructure spending, with the Government currently reaping around $10.5 billion a year in taxes and fees, but spending $1.4 billion on tourism infrastructure and promotion.

5. Northlanders say the proposed $14.20 toll on the Warkworth to Te Hana section of the Northland Corridor RONS is not fair as other places, such as Wellington and Hamilton, don’t have to pay tolls on their RONS3.

6. The Post-$’s Rob Stock reports this morning that a net 1,578 Wellington firms closed between November 2023 and February this year, while a net 12,000-plus firms opened in Auckland, the Waikato and Christchurch4.

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Chorustuesdayapril72026pdf

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The Top Six Pick’n Mix for Tuesday, April 7

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1. The $14.20 per return trip toll proposed for the planned Warkworth to Te Hana four-lane section of the Northland Corridor Road of National Significance (RONS) would cover just 3% of the annual Public Private Partnership fees, which means a proper toll without a 97% subsidy from drivers and taxpayers outside Northland would be closer to $468. For each trip. For just that section.

2. Donald Trump is set to announce this afternoon that the United States will leave Iran without re-opening the Strait of Hormuz, which leaves Iran able to extend the global crisis indefinitely in the hope of shutting US bases in the region. He’s also talking about leaving NATO.

3. PM Christopher Luxon will announce a Cabinet reshuffle today to replace retiring ministers Judith Collins and Shane Reti. He faces the risk of further alienating some, including Chris Bishop, and backbenchers who will miss out.

4. If National’s current polling support of under 30% in the last two polls was replicated at the election, Bishop and Finance Minister Nicola Willis may not get back into Parliament as list MPs.

5. Scoop of the day: Isaac Davison reports this morning for Stuff that Associate Health Minister David Seymour tried and failed to bring in a form of cost benefit analysis at Pharmac that would have allowed more spending to offset longer term costs and include wider benefits to patients and society. The short term drive to reduce borrowing killed the move.

6. Charts of the day: EV sales are booming, while light & heavy vehicle traffic is sliding, as the sharp rise in fuel prices in recent weeks flows through into both demand destruction for old fuel and demand creation for new fuel.

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Chorusthursdayapril22026

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The Top Six Pick’n Mix for Thursday, April 2

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1. A Cabinet reshuffle is expected tomorrow, just as leadership talk returns over PM Christopher Luxon, and National hits 26.5% in Roy Morgan poll.

2. Donald Trump looks set to de-escalate the Iran conflict, even if it means the Strait of Hormuz remains closed1. He told allies overnight: ‘Go take your own oil.’

3. Chris Bishop has cut Aucklands housing limit to 1.4 million, having already cut the Plan Change 120 capacity from 2.0 million to 1.6 million2.

4. Business confidence slumped in March as the fuel crisis hit3, with experienced hiring and investment falling, while firms said they expected to put up prices more than wages.

5. Scoop: Health New Zealand was called in to explain why it underspent its capital expenditure budget last year, Phil Pennington reports for RNZ.

6. Chart: Imports of nitrous oxide cartridges or ‘nangs,’ which are supposed to be used by chefs for squirting whipped cream, have quintupled in 5 years and are up 70% in the last year4. The map of the day shows how Australia and New Zealand are expected to receive our last deliveries of fuel refined from Middle East oil extracted before March 1 by around April 20.

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Choruswednesdayapril12026

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The Top Six Pick’n Mix for Tuesday, April 1

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1. Yemen’s Houthis announced their support for Iran over the weekend and started missile attacks on Israel. This increases the risk that both major Middle East shipping chokepoints could be closed.

2. The Government looks set to dump its plan to fund an LNG import terminal in Taranaki , the NZ Herald-$ reported this morning1.

3. MBIE is due to update the national fuel situation here early this afternoon.

4. Consumer Confidence slumped in March to its lowest level since the depths of Covid, ANZ’s Roy Morgan survey out on Friday showed.

5. The. price of Brent has risen 75%, but New Zealand’s diesel costs will much more than double because of extra refining and shipping costs, plus a weaker NZ dollar.

6. Various solutions are being suggested to reduce fuel demand, including free bus fares, lower speed limits and massive EV purchases.

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The Top Six Pick’n Mix for Monday, March 30

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1. Iran has Donald Trump (and us) over a barrel.

2. In a worst case scenario, New Zealand would run out of diesel by May 15.

3. Half of the kids living in material hardship will miss out on the $50/week tax credit announced this week to help poorer families cope with higher fuel costs.

4. The closures of McCain’s and Wattie’s factories announced this week are national food security issues

5. The Reserve Bank pointed out this week that New Zealand’s monopolies make us more expensive than other countries and worsen our cost of living crisis.

6. New Reserve Bank Governor Anna Breman said this week she wouldn’t either hike or cut the OCR any time soon, but didn’t sufficiently hose down market expectations of higher rates this year, so banks put up their fixed mortgage rates.

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The Top Six Pick’n Mix for Saturday, March 28

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1. Donald Trump threatened new strikes on Iran overnight after his peace plan was rejected. Oil prices rose again as the conflict enters its fifth week without any sign the Strait of Hormuz will reopen any time soon1.

2. Nicola Willis and Shane Jones are expected…

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1. Iran rejected a 15-point US peace plan overnight and demanded an end to US and Israeli attacks. It also demanded that the US and Israel pay Iran war reparations and that Iran be granted complete control of the Strait of Hormuz.

2. The Greens launched their ho…

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1. Iran struck Qatar’s main LNG plant overnight, destroying 17% of its capacity for up to five years1. European gas prices rose 35%. Brent crude rose to US$119/barrel.

2. PM Christopher Luxon yesterday acknowledged the Government was now planning for an extend…

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1. Iran pledged more attacks on oil and gas infrastructure overnight after its biggest gas field was hit. Oil prices rose nearly 10% to US$110/barrel1.

2. Fuel stocks fell slightly towards the end of the week, but the Government remains relaxed and has yet to bring …

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1. A look at how the fuel inflation spike is set to combine with higher mortgage rates and a lower New Zealand dollar to deliver a triple-whammy to real disposable incomes.

2. Food inflation was picking up before the Iran war began, Stats NZ reports, with …

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