1. Christopher Luxon gave away major policy concessions and cabinet posts to Winston Peters and David Seymour in November 2023 to ensure he became PM quicker, setting a pattern of the ‘tails’ of NZ First and ACT wagging the National ‘dog’ hard and often under Luxon’s supine leadership. This was Luxon’s original sin. But in the wake of last week’s leadership vote, the National leader is clearly trying to reverse the direction of wagging on Peters, accusing the Foreign Minister of putting his political interests over national interests by releasing emails exposing Luxon’s flirtation with supporting the US attack on Iran.

2. Peters has admitted his office made a procedural mistake in releasing the emails, but couldn’t resist a swipe back at the PM yesterday in Parliament1, saying: “The person in charge of foreign policy is the Foreign Minister. That’s me, not the Prime Minister.”

3. The Government was already entering a winter of political and economic discontent, mired in cost-of-living pressure, leadership uncertainty, stagnant employment and real wage deflation. Now columnists2, including Matthew Hooton and Audrey Young, are suggesting Luxon’s pivot may yet end in him sacking Peters and/or calling a snap election. Former National Minister Chris Finlayson said3 this morning National should eject NZ First from the coalition. In my view, that may not end well for Luxon, given he’s left his lunge for redemption to the last minute and is the most unpopular first term PM in history.

4. ANZ’s Business Outlook survey of business confidence in April was released yesterday, confirming the late March slump following the onset of the fuel crisis. But it has closed a ‘delusionary’ gap between business confidence about the wider economy, which had been near record highs despite little growth, and businesses’ expectations and experiences of their own businesses.

5. Today’s Chart of the Day shows Company liquidations rose 15% to 3,023 in the year to the end of March, including 286 company liquidations and 308 insolvencies in the month, making it the highest March total for liquidations since 2015, Centrix reported this morning.

6. Today’s Op-Ed of the day is from Auckland Uni’s Lucy Goodman, Jacqueline Ramke & Pushkar Silwal for The Conversation, arguing that public investment of $389 million a year for 2.4 million eye examinations would return $36 for every $1 of investment.

The presentation I’ll use, which includes the front pages of news sites and newspapers at 6am this morning, is attached below the fold.

Looking forward to seeing paying subscribers at Midday here. A recorded version of the video will be emailed later to paying subscribers.

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1. Household living cost indices published yesterday showed prices for those on the lowest incomes have risen 7.9% since the change of Government, while prices for the highest earning households rose 4.4%. That’s because electricity, food and fuel prices rose faster than inflation generally, and are a bigger share of spending by the poor, while the rich have benefited from a fall in mortgage rates and spend proportionally less on those essentials.

2. The Government’s moves to index (non-superannuation) benefits to CPI inflation (6.4% since December 2023), rather than wages (6.8%), and to increase the minimum wage by just 3.5%, have compounded the cost-of-living pain for the poorest working households and beneficiaries.

3. The way the Reserve Bank sets interest rates is worsening the pain. Its pursuit of CPI inflation of 1-3% means it doesn’t take into account the benefits of falling mortgage rates, which aren’t included in the CPI, but does hold rates higher than they otherwise would be because structurally higher capital costs from Government moves charge users directly for water and power borrowing costs are included in the CPI, whereas they weren’t before. This risks creating a self-reinforcing rate-hike spiral as the RBNZ hikes the OCR in response to higher electricity and water capital costs, which in turn further increases those costs.

4. This morning’s scoop of the day is from Thomas Coughlan at NZ Herald-$, who reports Winston Peters had to talk Christopher Luxon down from supporting the US attack on Iran. Peters’ decision to disclose that internal discussions to the Herald has now angered Luxon, creating more division in the coalition.

5. In news out overnight, the Strait of Hormuz looks set to be closed for much longer after Trump rejected an Iranian offer to open it and told aides and oil executives1 he’d be comfortable keeping the Strait closed for many months to pressure Iran into giving up its nuclear material. That pushed the oil price up 6% to US$118/barrel overnight, its highest level since the Iran conflict began.

6. In good news, the world’s biggest battery maker, CATL, has just done a deal to mass-produce sodium batteries for grid-scale solar battery farms, potentially reducing electricity storage costs dramatically2.

The presentation I’ll use, which includes the front pages of news sites and newspapers at 5am this morning, is attached below the fold.

Looking forward to seeing paying subscribers at 9.15 am here. A recorded version of the video will be emailed later.

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1. PM Christopher Luxon has defended the Government’s economic record, pointing to the need to consolidate spending and debt.

2. But Government debt has actually risen and the consolidation is not contributing to economic growth in the absence of business investment and a housing boom.

3. Luxon’s economic strategy depends on a repeat of housing or business investment booms to pick up the slack from a retreating Government. That’s not happening this time. Our economy can’t handle that truth.

4. An investigation by Nicholas Jones for Stuff has revealed grave concerns over understaffing in maternity care killing babies.

5. Reportage by Liu Chen for RNZ points to a problem with land-banked rental properties allowing neglect of both the buildings and tenants.

The presentation I’ll use, which includes the front pages of news sites and newspapers at 6am this morning, is attached below the fold. Looking forward to seeing paying subscribers at 10.00 am here. A recorded version will go out in a later email to paying subscribers, which I’ll open up to all if we get more than 100 likes.

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1. Households in New Zealand are often presented as the worst savers in the OECD1, but that’s because those measures exclude the wealth home owners believe is stored in residential land values.

2. Including land values in household net worth, which is how New Zealanders view their financial outlook for retirement, turns New Zealand households into one of the OECD’s richest, albeit with a very uneven spread.

3. However, that’s not a good thing, because our over-reliance on savings tied up in land values starves real businesses and public infrastructure of the funds needed to invest in productivity-creating networks, skills and technology. We are land rich, but poor in wages and real wealth terms.

4. Investigation of the day: By Nicholas Jones for Stuff: ‘He wasn’t given a fair chance’: Why a newborn’s death sounds alarm for our maternity system

5. Scoop of the day: Amy Williams for RNZ: ‘May be a legal loophole’ over lodges, lawyer says

6. Column of the day: By Pulotu Tupe Solomon-Tanoa’i for E-Tangata: Who benefits if the BSA is scrapped?

The presentation I’ll use, which includes the front pages of news sites and newspapers at 6am this morning, is attached below the fold. Looking forward to seeing paying subscribers at 10am here. A recorded version will go out in a later email.

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The main things I learned this week in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty:

1. The Strait of Hormuz is now closed for months and New Zealand is nowhere near ready for the world’s worst energy price shock since 1973, possibly even worse.

2. PM Christopher Luxon exposed his own leadership frailties and destabilized the coalition by pu…

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1. The Lead: PM Christopher Luxon called a vote of confidence in his leadership in National’s Caucus meeting yesterday, winning a majority by an unspecified margin in a secret ballot. He variously described the vote as “decisive” and “unanimous,” although he could not know the margin. He also didn’t tell Winston Peters, who said this morning the vote breached the coalition agreement’s no surprises clause and was a “very bad move” that would invite further leadership challenges as soon as more bad polls emerge. Within minutes Luxon’s Deputy Nicola Willis accused Peters of playing politics and “trying to cause mischief.”

2. The Sidebar: Luxon announced the vote in a two-minute-long spoken statement and refused to take questions, describing the reporting on his leadership as “speculation and rumour.” He said voters didn’t care about a “media soap opera” and he wouldn’t answer questions in future about his leadership. But there are plenty of loose ends, including questions over why National Whip Stuart Smith didn’t attend yesterday’s vote and why it took four days for Smith to say (in a statement published by the PM’s office) that he had not tried to warn Luxon before Easter about a caucus revolt.

3. (Tui billboard) Quote of the day: “That matter is now closed,” Luxon said.

4. Chart of the day: Electricity prices rose 12.5% in the last year, Stats NZ reported yesterday in its March CPI release, adding that price shock made up a tenth of the annual CPI inflation of 3.1%. The result was slightly higher than market and Reserve Bank expectations, bringing forward expectations for the first rate hike to July, with a 40% chance of a hike on May 28: the day before the Budget.

5. Deep-dive of the day: Freddy Brewster reports for The Lever on the escalating shortages globally of helium (a crucial ingredient in the tech and medical sectors) because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has been amplified by the US Government privatising its helium stockpiles over the last 30 years.

6. Column of the day: writes for his insightful substack about why politics needs to be extracted from the health system and how to do it.

I’ve included the PDF of the presentation I would have used in the video below.

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The Lead: PM hangs his Government out to dry

PM Christopher Luxon underlined his own unpopularity with voters yesterday by choosing to call a vote of confidence in his own leadership from fellow National MPs. He had hoped to make the speculation go away, but instead left unanswered questions galore that will only add fuel to the inevitable next challenge. He succeeded only in advertising that the Caucus is far from confident in his leadership. He also stumbled into a dispute with Winston Peters that makes his Government appear both unpopular and unstable.

It turns out Luxon had not told Peters he planned to call for the confidence vote, which Peters said this morning breached the coalition agreement’s ‘no surprises’ clause. Peters also said out loud what everyone was thinking about the pandora’s box Luxon had opened for the next bad poll result:

“This is not the first time it’s going to happen. You’ll see. Just wait for the next round of polls. That’s the sad thing. There are going to be consequences. They’re seriously predictable consequences.

“I was astonished they didn’t seem to understand, sadly, what they were doing. And here we are, part of the coalition, where stability of government all the way to the 2026 election and beyond is the critical component. And this is not helpful.” Winston Peters

Luxon’s Deputy Nicola Willis emphasised the growing tension in the coalition because of the weakness of Luxon’s leadership in an interview shortly after Peters’ criticisms on RNZ Morning Report (bolding mine):

“I’ll tell you what invites further instability, a vote for Winston Peters that could result in a Labour Party Māori Green government. And all he is doing is courting votes and trying to cause mischief that way.

“He’s just mischief-making. There is an emphatic affirmation of support for the Prime Minister and the leadership. And what he’s doing, and it’s very transparent, is he’s saying vote for New Zealand First.

“Now that’s his job. My job is to say vote for National. And I am pointing out that the risk with a vote for New Zealand First is it’s a risk to prop up a Labour-led government that brings us back to economic instability, more taxes. more borrowing, a weaker economy.” Nicola Willis on RNZ Morning Report

The Sidebar: Why didn’t PM & Smith shut it down on Friday?

This latest National leadership debate burst out into the open on Friday morning with Thomas Coughlan’s anonymously-sourced report in the NZ Herald that National Whip Stuart Smith had tried to warn Luxon before Easter about the Caucus’ leadership concerns, but that Luxon had ghosted him.

Luxon did not outright deny Smith tried to contact him or that he had avoided contact. Smith said nothing for four days. Then yesterday, shortly before the Caucus meeting, Luxon’s office put out a statement in Smith’s name that he would not attend the meeting because of a “long standing commitment” and that he “did not contact the Prime Minister or his office seeking a meeting.”

Really?

Thomas wrote this morning that his report on the ghosting was confirmed by four sources and that Smith had told The Post over the weekend he expected to fly to Wellington for Tuesday’s Caucus meeting.

“This got heads scratching.

“Why issue a half-denial after days of refusing to comment? And can it really be true that Smith, hours after confirming he was trying to fly to Wellington, discovered he had a longstanding personal commitment (potentially in a different island – Smith represents the South Island electorate of Kaikōura).” Thomas Coughlan in NZ Herald-$

RNZ’s Political Editor Jo Moir used a less quizzical tone to describe the open questions:

“Smith’s statement and denials needed to have landed on Friday if he and Luxon wanted them to be believed.

“It’s not credible to wait four days to put out that statement, especially when nobody from the prime minister’s office has disputed the story in the interim.

“The statement read as if it had been written by the prime minister’s office and when (Simeon) Brown was asked whether he or the prime minister had put pressure on Smith to make that statement, he refused to answer the question multiple times.” RNZ’s Political Editor Jo Moir in her analysis article

Quote of the day: ‘That matter is now closed’

Luxon’s failure to draw a line under the issue was amplified by his decision to blame the media for the leadership speculation and then refuse to take questions, now and into the future. Here’s his comments, starting with his attempt to make the issue go away (bolding mine):

“I have the support of my caucus as their leader. Caucus has answered clearly and decisively. It has backed my leadership and that matter is now closed and I won’t be commenting further on it.” Luxon in a news conference yesterday.

Then he blamed the media:

“A free press is important in a democracy. You give citizens the chance to know the truth about their countries and their governments and hold a leaders like me accountable and I welcome that.

“But if the media want to keep focusing on speculation and rumour, I am not going to engage.

“Kiwis expect the media to ask us the tough questions about our policies to hold us to account for our pledges to New Zealanders, and to interrogate us about the things that matter to them. They are not interested in this media soap opera. Everyday Kiwis will not be losing sleep over political slideshows here in Wellington. ” Luxon in a news conference yesterday.

For the sake of clarity, the ‘speculation and rumour’ was reported by multiple outlets from multiple MPs.

I also checked the video. He said slideshows. Not sideshows.

In my view, this is emblematic of Luxon’s problem connecting with everyday voters. He sounds and acts like a CEO because he was one and says it qualifies him to be PM. He has variously:

• described himself as the nation’s CEO;

• described voters as stakeholders;

• described New Zealand as a business;

• arrived at Parliament to accept the National Party leadership in a limousine from his apartment across the road from Parliament;

• and claimed living-away-from-home(s) allowances from taxpayers for that apartment, which he owned.

Luxon believes his problems are ‘you’ and ‘they’ problems when it is a ‘he’ problem. His inability to accept criticism and exhibit self-awareness is evident in him stopping reading focus group reports1 on his performance.

Chart of the day: Administered inflation

My Picks & Mixes

Top Six

1. Scoop of the day: Susan Edmunds for RNZ: Benefit warning for KiwiSaver withdrawals

2. Reportage of the day: Charlotte Cook for RNZ: ‘Dumbstruck’: Wellington man finds car on fence after flood

3. Analysis of the day: Analysis by Clyde Russell for Reuters: Is it time to abandon hope the Strait of Hormuz will open soon?

4. Investigation of the day: Alayna Greene & Kevin Liptak for CNN: A deal to end the Iran war seemed close. Then Trump started posting on social media

5. Deep-dive of the day: Freddy Brewster for The Lever: The Helium Crisis That Won’t Go Away

6. Op-Ed of the day: : Health + Politics = Politics An apolitical muse on Politics and Health: remove party politics from Health.

The Best of the Rest

Scoops & breaking news today

• Reuters: Trump unilaterally announces indefinite ceasefire extension with Iran, which didn’t ask for it

• Reuters: Meta to start capturing employee mouse movements, keystrokes for AI training data

• Kate Newton for RNZ: Government plans for LNG terminal didn’t model price spike

• RNZ: Australian company plans $3b lignite-to-fertiliser plant in Southland

• Hamish McNeilly for Stuff: Dunedin’s stadium hotel secret is out, thanks to councillor’s reply-all email chain

Hot Topic: Fuel Crisis

• Tom Pullar-Strecker for The Post-$: Minister suggests NZ could become Asia’s fuel insurance depot

• Peter de Graaf for RNZ: Milk company stops deliveries over soaring fuel prices

• Hot Topic: Luxon’s Leadership

• Poverty, Health, Education, Incomes, Living Costs & Justice

• John Gerritsen for RNZ: Polytechnics to carry hundreds of unfunded students

Politics in Aotearoa, Geopolitics & Global Economy

• 1News: ‘I get cut through’: Shane Jones on ‘butter chicken tsunami’ comment

• Massey Uni’s Suze Wilson for The Conversation: Luxon lives on as leader. Public perception is a tougher challenge

• Column by Henry Cooke for The Post-$: The three big questions Luxon still faces

NZ Economy & Business

• Column for OneRoof: Tony Alexander: RBNZ loses inflation & interest rates plot

• RNZ: Warning shoppers losing out as credit card benefits cut

Housing, Transport, Infrastructure & Councils

• Sam Smith for Stuff: Auckland’s ‘ghost tower’ goes on the market

• Tina Law for The Press-$: Christchurch council hits pause on speed humps

• Sinead Gill for The Press-$: Councils creating their own fuel plans

Climate & Environment

• Tom Hunt for The Post-$: Money to help flood victims there but not activated

• Mary Williams for ODT-$: Payout allegations disputed ‘Santana alleges Ngāi Tahu wants a $180 million payout for Bendigo gold project go-ahead.’

Cartoon of the day: Jumping to avoid being pushed

Timeline-cleansing nature pic

Ngā mini nui and ka kite anō

Bernard

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1. PM Christopher Luxon will meet the rest of a restive National Caucus today for the first time since “five moaning and frustrated” MPs anonymously called for a leadership debate. Luxon’s net approval rating in a 1News/Verian poll taken last week was minus 23%. He said the meeting would focus on tightening up on “loose lips and ill discipline.” He refused to say yesterday if he had ghosted National Whip Stuart Smith, who also refused to comment.1

2. The Government has quietly delayed making a decision about cost-sharing between the Crown and councils when paying for climate event damage. Climate Change Minister Simon Watts confirmed Cabinet had agreed to his proposal to delay the decision until after the election, RNZ’s Kate Newton reported this morning2. Meanwhile, the Insurance Council has called for an ‘urgent and systemic’ response to invest in climate resilience, just as IAG noted there had been a damaging storm once every eight days in the last year, up from once every 19 days in the previous 15 years.

3. NZ First Deputy Leader Shane Jones has railed against the Government’s FTA with India, saying it would unleash “unfettered” immigration that drove down wages, clogged up roads and overwhelmed the health system. “I don’t care how much criticism we get. I am just never going to agree with a butter chicken tsunami coming to New Zealand,” he said3. Luxon described the comments as scaremongering and wrong, while Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said the comments were racist and unacceptable.

4. However, the Government is pressing ahead with plans to sign the FTA in New Delhi next Monday, despite not having a majority in Parliament to legislate the agreement because NZ First opposes it. National will need Labour’s support, which is not guaranteed as it still has unanswered questions. Hipkins said: “Signing a free trade agreement if you don’t have the majority support in Parliament, and at this point they don’t, would be recklessly irresponsible.4”

5. Scoop of the day: Treasury initially opposed the Government’s plan to provide a Crown loan for the successful bidder for the Public Private Partnership (PPP) to build and run the $2.95 billion to $3.75 billion Warkworth to Te Hana stage of National’s Northern Corridor Road of National Significance (RONS), Thomas Manch reported this morning for BusinessDesk-$. Treasury said the loan, which is needed because debt markets are too thin for any PPP’s bespoke bonds, would distort the private funding incentives and deliver effective public subsidy.

6. Deep-dive of the day: Just 1.4% of $1.4 billion of foreign investments pledged to win ‘Active Investment (Golden) Visas’ for residency are actually being invested actively here, Kate MacNamara reports this morning for NZ Herald-$.

Here’s the slide presentation I’ll use in the Substack Live at this link at Midday today. It’s in PDF form rather than Powerpoint/Keynote form. The recorded video version is sent out soon after via email to paying subscribers. Please comment below with questions and I’ll try to answer them in the Substack Live. Subscribe as a paying subscriber to join the Substack Live and see the presentation preview.

A preview of today’s Chorus Live presentation

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The Picks ’n Mixes

The Top Six

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1. Support for National slumped four percentage points to 29.7% in a 1News/Verian poll taken before Friday’s fresh speculation about PM Christopher Luxon’s leadership. That’s a record low in the 1News/Verian poll for National during Luxon’s leadership. If replicated in an election, the Labour/Green/Te Pāti Māori Opposition would win 10 more seats than the National/NZ First/ACT coalition.

2. Support for Luxon as preferred PM fell four points to a record low 16% in the poll, while Labour Leader Chris Hipkins fell one to 19%. This is the first time during Luxon’s time as PM he has been below the Opposition leader. His personal support is now lower than it was for then Labour Opposition Leader Andrew Little when he decided to resign and hand over to Jacinda Ardern in 2017.

3. Luxon was defiant in two radio interviews1 this morning, saying he had the backing of the National caucus and would not resign. He blamed five (unnamed) “moaning and frustrated” National MPs for “poor discipline and loose talk.”

4. After being open barely a day, the Strait of Hormuz was slammed shut again on Sunday morning2 after hardliners in Iran rejected Donald Trump’s talk of Iran giving up its nuclear material and ambitions. Iranian forces then attacked two ships, forcing 13 tankers to reverse back into the Persian Gulf. Oil prices are expected to rebound this morning in Asian trade, given only four oil tankers got through the Strait during the brief opening, and even then, those linked to Iran were blocked from leaving the Gulf of Oman by the US Navy.

5. Green co-leaders Marama Davidson and Chloe Swarbrick delivered their State of the Planet address yesterday, calling for a National Electrification Plan, including Government backing for a Council-led proposal for a Ratepayers' Assistance Scheme 3that offers low-interest loans for solar panel and battery upgrades, and for a $150 million expansion of public transport networks.

6. The (joint) Scoop of the Day is from Te Aniwa Hurihanganui for 1News and Jamie Ensor for NZ Herald on the Government moving to secretly dilute Treaty principles on 23 pieces of legislation. Cabinet has agreed to limit Treaty principles obligations for a range of laws to no more than “take into account,” Te Aniwa reported. Adam reported he learned of Cabinet’s decisions after discovering a memorandum filed by the Crown at the Waitangi Tribunal on March 12.

Here’s the slide presentation I’ll use in the Substack Live at this link at 10.30am today. It’s in PDF form rather than Powerpoint/Keynote form. The recorded video version is sent out soon after via email to paying subscribers. Please comment below with questions before 9am I’ll try to answer them in the Substack Live. Subscribe as a paying subscriber to join the Substack Live and see the presentation preview.

A preview of today’s Chorus Live presentation

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The Picks ’n Mixes

The Top Six

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1. Oil prices fell 9% to about US$90/bbl this morning after Iran said overnight the Strait of Hormuz was ‘open’ because it expected Iranian assets overseas to be unfrozen. Donald Trump said he expected a peace deal “soon” after (he said) Iran offered to not have nuclear weapons for 20 years and he said the US would ‘recover’ Iran’s uranium at a “leisurely pace.” He added he had “banned” Israel from bombing Lebanon, but the US blockade would stay until a deal was done1.

2. Christopher Luxon may be gone as PM by Tuesday lunchtime if MPs choose to discuss his leadership at their weekly Caucus meeting before the start of a two-week Parliamentary session. Many hope he chooses to resign over the weekend. If he doesn’t, an open challenge is unlikely because the aspirants, Chris Bishop, Nicola Willis and Erica Stanford, want to be crowned leader2, rather than pick up a bloodied crown after forcing a decapitation. But the outcome for Luxon is politically irrelevant. He now faces endless leaking and questions until election day. He is a dead National leader walking.

3. One recent reason for leadership chatter was Luxon’s reassurance this week that: “We have a fuel supply. We have no risk of disruption to our future fuel supply.” Economist Shamubeel Eaqub ridiculed the complacency and called3 on Luxon to spell out a plan to avoid critical shortages by the end of May. Transporting NZ said its survey of 35 truckers this week found a third reported finding empty diesel pumps more than three times. The trucking lobby group called on the Government to shift up to the next level of the fuel crisis ‘plan.’

4. Could the Reserve Bank really hike three times before the election, starting as early as the day before the Budget? Infometrics’ Gareth Kirnan said yesterday a rate hike by the RBNZ on May 28 could not be ruled out because it needed to control wage and price setting behaviour after the fuel price shock. ANZ changed its OCR forecast on Monday to seeing OCR hikes in July, September and October. It previously saw one hike in 2026 on December 9.

5. The Investigation and Scoop of the Week was from Paula Penfold for Stuff on the Rod Drury case4.

6. The Deep-dive of the Week was from Marc Daalder for Newsroom about how electricity lines companies have reduced rebates for peak-time power from home batteries by up to 95%5.

Here’s the slide presentation I’ll use in the Substack Live at this link at Midday today. It’s in PDF form rather than Powerpoint/Keynote form. The recorded video version is sent out soon after via email. Subscribe as a paying subscriber to join the Substack Live and see the presentation preview.

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The Picks ’n Mixes of the Week

The Top Six of the Week

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1. PM Christopher Luxon’s leadership of the National caucus may be challenged in the next fortnight of Parliament, the NZ Herald’s Thomas Coughlan reports this morning. He reports National’s Chief Whip Stuart Smith was ghosted by Luxon in the last sitting block of Parliament when Smith wanted to notify Luxon of caucus discontent1. Stuff’s Jenna Lynch also reports leadership ructions.

2. Is Luxon gaslighting NZ on the fuel crisis? Luxon says there is ‘no risk of disruption to our future fuel supply,’ but fuel stocks fell by three days in the time between last Wednesday and last Sunday. Without rationing, New Zealand’s stocks are set to hit dangerously low levels within six weeks2.

3. The IRD published the final version this week of its once-every-three-years Long Term Insights Briefing, including damning evidence that New Zealand’s tax base is over-reliant on GST and PAYE because it leaves capital income mostly untaxed. That puts a heavier tax burden on the poor, relative to other OECD countries. The IRD suggested a GST hike offset by credits for poorer consumers to help pay for the fiscal effects of an ageing population. It looked at an option for a ‘dual’ income tax system where income from labour was taxed at a higher rate than income from capital. It also pointed to the vast inequality in wealth from land ownership, and looked at taxes on land values, wealth and capital gains. But it decided eventually these taxes would hurt current land and wealth owners too much, and that the GST hike with offsets for poorer families was a better option.

4. The IRD has published results of a survey of firms in December that showed most either didn’t know enough about the ‘Investment Boost’ tax break to use it, or aren’t investing extra in their business anyway. Of those that did know about the ability to claim 20% of an asset’s value in the first year and were investing, 40% said it had helped them decide to invest. However, poor economic conditions had mostly offset the boost, with 30% saying the economy discouraged investment.

5. Tauranga City Council has started fining homeless people for living in their cars in parks near where cruise ships arrive, effectively using parking, car registration and dog control fines as a type of ‘move on’ order before legislation is passed3. Ayla Yeoman reported on the fines this week for LDR/RNZ, including Tauranga Marina manager Greg Prescott saying the marina had been pushing the council to move homeless people from Keith Allen Drive, citing alcohol and drug use, abuse and mess. “We have a lot of foreign folks coming into the marina from all over the world, and it’s a really bad look,” Prescott said.

6. This year’s AUT survey of media consumption in Aotearoa has found the first improvement in trust in mainstream news outlets in six years, with Interest and Newsroom4coming in fourth-equal for most trusted, behind RNZ, the ODT and TVNZ’s 1News in that order.5

Here’s the slide presentation I’ll use in the Substack Live at this link at 11:00 am today. It’s in PDF form rather than Powerpoint/Keynote form. The recorded video version is sent out soon after via email to paying subscribers. Please comment below with questions before 11 am I’ll try to answer them in the Substack Live. Subscribe as a paying subscriber to join the Substack Live and see the presentation preview.

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The Top Six Pick’n Mix for this morning

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1. The US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has began, with two sanctioned oil tankers passing through, but several others turning back. The double blockade is expected to cut oil supplies by a further two million barrels a day to 11 million a day. Oil prices fell overnight on talk of new ceasefire talks within days1.

2. The IMF issued its ‘Spring’ forecasts for global growth and inflation overnight, saying a global recession was possible if oil prices stayed above US$100/barrel for the rest of the year2.

3. The IMF forecast that New Zealand’s inflation rate would rise in line with world inflation over the next couple of years, as it did after Covid, challenging the National-led Government’s view from 2023 until this year that New Zealand inflation was caused by the previous Labour Government’s spending, and that therefore the best response to high inflation was a Government spending freeze.

4. Kiwibank Chief Economist Jarrod Kerr yesterday argued against big and early OCR hikes this year in a note in the wake of ANZ’s forecast change on Monday to seeing three hikes before the election3. He wrote the hikes would be reckless.

5. The FTA with India is facing new headwinds in Parliament, with Labour Leader Chris Hipkins again challenging the deal around student visas4. National needs Labour’s support to pass the FTA because NZ First is opposed.

6. Simplicity Economist Shamubeel Eaqub has hit out at the Government’s ‘do nothing’ fuel plan5. He described it to The Post-$ this morning as: “Do nothing, do nothing, do nothing, and then, oh f..k”.

Here’s the slide presentation I’ll use in the Substack Live at this link at 9:00 am today. It’s in PDF form rather than Powerpoint/Keynote form. The recorded video version is sent out soon after via email to paying subscribers. Please comment below with questions before 9am I’ll try to answer them in the Substack Live. Subscribe as a paying subscriber to join the Substack Live and see the presentation preview.

A preview of today’s Chorus Live presentation

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The Top Six Pick’n Mix for Wednesday, April 15

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1. Oil prices are back at US$100/barrel with no end in sight to the (now two) blockades on oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz1.

2. ANZ now sees the Reserve Bank hiking the OCR three times before the election2.

3. The BusinessNZ-BNZ survey of the services sector found it contracted sharply and for a second month running in March.

4. The latest MBIE fuel stocks update showed falls in supplies in petrol, diesel and jet fuel in the three days to last Wednesday. The last ship is still due on April 23 and stocks are still due to run out in late May without new ships or rationing3.

5. In another challenge for the Reserve Bank, one coffee shop in Wellington is considering putting a fuel surcharge on its coffees and scones4.

6. In today’s Deep-dive of the day, Kate Newton reports for RNZ that just as climate change ramps up the cost to Government, insurers, households and businesses into the billions each year, the Government is restricting funding for scientists trying to work out the effects of extreme weather.

Here’s the slide presentation I’ll use in the Substack Live here at 9:00 am today. The recorded version is sent out soon after via email to paying subscribers. It’s in PDF form rather than Powerpoint/Keynote form. Please comment below with questions I’ll try to answer. Subscribe as a paying subscriber to join the Substack Live and see the presentation preview.

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The Top Six Pick’n Mix for Tuesday, April 14

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1. Donald Trump says the US Navy will now blockade ships entering or exiting the Strait of Hormuz to stop Iran collecting tolls. He says the US Navy will also stop tankers on the high seas that have already paid tolls1.

2. China has banned the export of sulphuric acid, acting to preserve its own supplies now a third of global sulphur production is trapped inside the Strait of Hormuz. It is a key component used to produce copper and fertilizer, adding to food inflation and shortages of gear for electricity networks and data centres2.

3. Scoop of the day: Treasury is set to forecast New Zealand’s inflation rate could rise as high as 7.5%, which is well above the Reserve Bank’s current forecast for a rise to 4.2% in the June quarter and above the 3.7% disclosed last month by Finance Minister Nicola Willis, Vernon Small wrote in his column for the Sunday Star Times-$3.

4. Property experts are warning4 of big falls in townhouse prices, suggesting they are responsible for falling house prices. But a closer look shows their prices haven’t fallen much more than other types of housing, and have barely fallen at all in the South Island, where the complaints come from.

5. Fuel update due: This afternoon MBIE will publish its latest update of New Zealand’s fuel stocks as of last Wednesday5. Meanwhile, our largest supplier of fuel, South Korea, is reported to have sharply cut exports of jet fuel, but its also reassuring customers it has secured crude supplies from Kazakhstan. Also, Australian PM Anthony Albanese is visiting Malaysia and Brunei this week to secure fuel supplies.

6. Deep-dive of the day: The era of free movement of shipping on the seas is ending, which is adding to inflationary pressures, the WSJ-$ (gift)6 writes.

Here’s the slide presentation I’ll use in the Substack Live here at 9:00 am today. The recorded version is sent out soon after via email to paying subscribers. It’s in PDF form rather than Powerpoint/Keynote form. Please comment below with questions I’ll try to answer. Subscribe as a paying subscriber to join the Substack Live and see the presentation preview.

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Chorusmondayapril132026

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The Top Six Pick’n Mix for Monday, April 13

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1. Trump threatened to erase Iran. Then he capitulated. Now we all pay.

2. Luxon said Trump’s threat was ‘unhelpful.’ But he’s relaxed about fuel stocks.

3. New Zealanders are now paying an extra $200 million per week for fuel imports.

4. The RBNZ threatened ‘timely & decisive’ rate hikes. Two are expected in 2026.

5. National and Labour fell in the first April poll. NZ First rose closer to 15%.

6. Business leaders called ever louder for faster de-carbonisation of the economy.

Here’s the presentation I’ll use in the Substack live at 10am. Please comment below with questions I’ll try to answer. Subscribe as a paying subscriber to join the Substack Live and see the presentation preview.

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The Top Six Pick ’n Mix for Saturday, April 11

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1. Donald Trump told1 Benjamin Netanyahu last night to dial back Israel’s strikes on Lebanon, so Israel decided overnight to enter ceasefire talks with Lebanon2, which may strengthen the broader ceasefire aimed at re-opening oil supplies through the Persian Gulf to the refineries in Asia we depend on.

2. However, the Strait of Hormuz is still virtually closed3 this morning because Iran says the ceasefire should have been extended to Lebanon. Just four ships got through the Strait yesterday, which was less than 11 ships that got through the day before the ceasefire. None were oil or LNG tankers. Usually, 150 ships a day pass through the Strait.

3. Transport Minister Chris Bishop has confirmed the Government is scaling back and delaying various RONS programmes to save money. PM Christopher Luxon confirmed as much in Nelson yesterday, The Post-$4 and The Nelson Mail-$5 reported this morning.

4. The Deep-dive of the day is from Teuila Fuatai for RNZ on how thousands of people in Kaikohe are jobless, but have virtually nowhere to go6.

5. The Scoop of the day is from Krystal Gibbens for RNZ on how short-staffing in hospitals is causing injuries to support staff.7

6. In political news, former National Leader Don ‘Gone by lunchtime’ Brash wrote yesterday that it was no longer safe for New Zealand to be an ally of the United States8.

Here’s the slide presentation I’ll use in the Substack Live here at 9am today. It’s in PDF form rather than Powerpoint/Keynote form. Please comment below with questions I’ll try to answer. Subscribe as a paying subscriber to join the Substack Live and see the presentation preview.

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The Top Six Pick’n Mix for Friday, April 10

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1. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed a day into a two-week ceasefire agreed yesterday because Iran believes the ceasefire should apply to Israel’s attacks on Lebanon, which escalated overnight to their worst in this conflict. Iran also fired more drones and missiles at the Gulf states and Israel overnight1.

2. Oil futures prices fell 15% to US$95/barrel and global stocks rose 3% overnight on hopes the ceasefire might hold and the Strait of Hormuz might reopen some time soon. However, prices of physical Dubai/Oman oil remain over US$120/barrel, with jet fuel prices in Singapore close to US$200/barrel and refined diesel over US$200 barrel as traders envisage months more of disruption and supply shortages.

3. The ceasefire called an hour before Donald Trump’s ‘end of civilisation’ deadline was due to expire is being seen as a US capitulation that leaves the Strait of Hormuz in the hands of Iran and subject to unprecedented tolls on ships in international waters2.

4. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the OCR as expected yesterday3 at 2pm, but admitted the Monetary Policy Committee looked at a hike, albeit none of the committee members argued for it seriously. However, the decision and comments were seen as hawkish by financial markets, which pushed up wholesale interest rates slightly from lows hit earlier in the afternoon in the wake of the ceasefire.

5. Economsts for ASB4 and Westpac5 brought forward their forecasts for the first OCR hike to September from December and added an extra rate hike into their tracks for this year. BNZ and ANZ held their forecasts for September and December rate hikes unchanged, but noted the risks were shifting to an earlier start.

6. An OECD report6 into the cost of long Covid was published last night, showing New Zealand’s long Covid costs in 2021 were the lowest of all countries. However, there are now 200,000 New Zealanders now living with long Covid, while the Government does not have a plan7.

Here’s the slide presentation I’ll use in the Substack Live here at 10am today. It’s in PDF form rather than Powerpoint/Keynote form. Please comment below with questions I’ll try to answer. Subscribe as a paying subscriber to join the Substack Live and see the presentation preview.

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The Top Six Pick’n Mix for Thursday, April 9

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1. US President Donald Trump threatened to destroy all of Iran’s bridges, power plants and water plants once a US primetime deadline of 8pm US Eastern Time (Midday NZ Time today) has passed, saying: “A whole civilisation will die tonight.1” Iran has pulled out of talks and has threatened retaliation beyond the Middle East, saying it will take out oil and gas infrastructure “for years”. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed.

2. PM Christopher Luxon says he’s fine with fuel importer reassurances about new tanker deliveries being on track, saying yesterday: “(I’ve been told) there’s no risk to future orders. We’re very comfortable with where we sit today.2”

3. The last scheduled fuel tanker to arrive is the STI Sanctity3 on April 23 at Marsden Point. With no new tankers or rationing, the stocks reported as of last Wednesday means New Zealand is on track to run out of diesel on May 22, a week before the pre-election Budget.

4. Z Energy last night hiked its diesel price list for commercial customers for this week by 55c to $4.15/litre. Refined diesel futures in Singapore closed last night at US$232/barrel. Luxon yesterday again ruled out fuel excise or diesel RUC cuts4.

5. NZ First’s support rose 3.9% to 13.7% in the first poll result for April. The Taxpayers Union-Curia poll published yesterday found National’s support rose 1.4% to 29.8%, while Labour fell 1% to 33.4% and the Greens fell 2.7% to 7.8%. TOP and Te Pāti Māori were equal on 2.6%.

6. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hold the OCR at its scheduled ‘in-between’ decision at 2pm today5. This decision between full Monetary Policy Statements is usually published without a full set of forecasts or a press conference. But many expect some forecasts today, if only to challenge financial market expectations of two rate hikes before the end of 2026. There is also an online news press conference scheduled for 3pm that I’ll ask questions at.

Here’s the slide presentation I’ll use in the Substack Live here at 9am today. It’s in PDF form rather than Powerpoint/Keynote form. Please comment below with questions I’ll try to answer. Subscribe as a paying subscriber to join the Substack Live and see the presentation preview.

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The Top Six Pick’n Mix for Wednesday, April 8

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1. Iran has rejected a 45-day ceasefire plan and has called instead for a full peace with reparations and Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump responded by threatening to bomb Iran’s power, fuel and water plants ‘back into the Stone Age.’ He denied these strikes would be war crimes, saying ‘they are animals.’1

2. MBIE reported yesterday that diesel stocks here fell 4.1 days to 17.5 days between last Sunday and last Wednesday, but overall diesel and petrol stocks rose, and overall jet fuel stocks fell.

3. The last scheduled fuel tanker to arrive as of last night was the Forever Glory, which is coming from South Korea and is scheduled to dock in Tauranga on April 22. Without new ships or rationing, diesel would run out on May 222.

4. A report for MBIE has found the Government’s plan to double tourism exports to $20 billion from an extra one million tourists by 2034 is lacking up to $3.5 billion in infrastructure spending, with the Government currently reaping around $10.5 billion a year in taxes and fees, but spending $1.4 billion on tourism infrastructure and promotion.

5. Northlanders say the proposed $14.20 toll on the Warkworth to Te Hana section of the Northland Corridor RONS is not fair as other places, such as Wellington and Hamilton, don’t have to pay tolls on their RONS3.

6. The Post-$’s Rob Stock reports this morning that a net 1,578 Wellington firms closed between November 2023 and February this year, while a net 12,000-plus firms opened in Auckland, the Waikato and Christchurch4.

Here’s the slide presentation I’ll use in the Substack Live shortly. It’s in PDF rather than Powerpoint/Keynote form. Please comment below with questions I’ll try to answer. Subscribe as a paying subscriber to join the Substack Live and see the presentation preview.

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The Top Six Pick’n Mix for Tuesday, April 7

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