1. Officials from Police, Justice, Corrections, MSD, Orange Tamariki and Treasury all strongly advised Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith not to adopt the ‘move-on’ orders legislation to push homeless people as young as 14 out of CBDs, saying it was dangerous, expensive, mean, impossible to define and would breach human rights laws, Amelia Wade reported on Sunday for SST-$1.

2. had the scoop on her substack over the weekend that US Secretary of State Pete Hegseth thought New Zealand’s defense spending of 1% of GDP rising slowly to 2% was way below the required 3.5%. It illustrates how the ‘30/30’ rule limiting the size of Government to 30% of GDP is impossible in a world of rapid aging, climate change and more wars2.

3. Fears are growing that the rapid adoption of AI and robotics globally will mean firms will be able to produce vastly more products and services without many employees, but may struggle to sell them because consumers don’t have enough income3.

4. Iran pulled out of indirect peace talks with the United States overnight, citing Israel’s expanded invasion of Lebanon. US and Iranian forces traded bombings and drone strikes as well, dampening hopes of an imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil analysts are also warning the US fuel and crude exports that have softened oil prices in recent weeks are about to end as domestic demand ramps up for America’s summer ‘driving season’ when drivers go on holidays4.

5. Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party jumped ahead of Australia’s governing Labor party in an AFR-$ poll published yesterday. Hanson is also only just behind PM Anthony Albanese as preferred PM, thanks to deep anger over living costs and high migration.

6. Meanwhile, Australia is leaping ahead in installation of solar panels and batteries, both at home and on grid-scale farms. It means the batteries are now widely enough distributed and plentiful enough to start supplying heavy power demand in the (dark) early evenings, replacing gas. The mass installations will also allow all power consumers to get three hours of free power in the middle of the day5 from next month.

Paying subscribers get the full Picks n’ Mixes below and access to Substack Live sessions, along with the PDF of the presentation used in the Substack Live attached below.

My Picks ‘n Mixes elsewhere

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The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night featured co-hosts & talking with regular guests from Wellington and in Dunedin about geopolitics, the economy, climate change and politics.

This edition also included discussions with Arab News Editor in Chief Faisal Abbas and disinformation researcher Sanjana Hattotuwa.

This week:

• Bernard and Peter began with a chat about the Government’s Budget delivered yesterday afternoon.

• Bernard, Peter and Cathrine then talked about the Government’s failure to disclose lobbyist contact on behalf of Z Energy and Fonterra with the PM’s Office over a rewrite of climate laws that shut down a climate lawsuit against Z Energy, Fonterra and others. See the background on that here.

• Then Bernard, Peter, Robert talked with Faisal Abbas about the Iran conflict.

• Bernard and Peter finished with a discussion with Sanjana about disinformation flooding into New Zealand in election year, including his report this week on how it has spread and deepened since 2023. We also mentioned this Microsoft report from 2022 that showed on page 79 how Russian troll farms flooded 30% more anti-vaxx disinformation into New Zealand in late 2021 and early 2022 than pumped into Australia and the United States.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey.

The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in last year’s New Zealand Podcast awards.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free.

Ngā mihi nui.

Bernard

Kia ora

Come and join us for our weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar with paying subscribers to The Kākā for an hour at 5 pm today.

Jump on this link on YouTube Livestream for our chat with myself, and regular guests and Otago Uni’s Professor , plus special guests Sanjana Hattotuwa and Faisal Abbas.

Cheers

Bernard

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Thank you , , , , and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.

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1. Finance Minister Nicola Willis is set to unveil a pre-election Budget at 2pm today that she says it is “sensible, fiscally responsible and right for uncertain times.1” I’m in the Budget lockup in the Beehive and will report at 2.30pm.

2. PM Christopher Luxon describes Budget 2026 as one written by “grown-ups” and not an election year “lolly scramble”.

3. But, in my view, the Government’s fiscal restraint strategy is not working this time because households are too indebted to expand into the gap in the economy left by the Government contracting from 34% of GDP to 30% of GDP. Also, businesses are reluctant to invest into a stagnant economy with tightening fiscal and monetary policy, with consumers facing real wage deflation.

4. Infrastructure Minister Chris Bishop has dumped plans to use a Public Private Partnership (PPP) to build a new $100 million court house in Rotorua, choosing instead to simply use vanilla Government bonds to fund it. He said2 the PPP was too expensive for a relatively small project.

5. Community Housing Aotearoa (CHA) has published a landmark 129-page report on housing this morning, finding homelessness is at a record high, just as the Government cuts back on new social house building and rent subsidies3.

6. The Scoop of the day is from Mildred Armah at Stuff on delays in ambulances being able to unload at Wellington Hospital’s over-crowded Emergency Department4.

Paying subscribers get the full Picks n’ Mixes below and access to Substack Live sessions, along with the PDF of the presentation used in the Substack Live attached below.

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For the first time, the Reserve Bank detailed1 how each of the six members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted, including that the three outside members, Prasanna Gai, Carl Hansen and Hayley Gourley, voted for a 25 basis point hike to 2.5%. The three Reserve Bank members, Governor Anna Breman, Assistant Governor Karen Silk and Chief Economist Paul Conway all voted to hold. Breman then used her casting vote as chair of the committee to ultimately hold.

Usually, the MPC has seven members, but has yet to appoint a Deputy Governor.

In the presentation above, I went through the details of the Monetary Policy Statement, the following news conference (seen below) and the key details.

I also talked about my questions and the answers in the news conference on:

• whether the Phillips Curve was still operating (21:14);

• what the Governor would say to unemployed youth about the scarring effect of four years of high unemployment (38:32);

• what the effects on inflation have been of higher inflation on regulated prices; and,

• whether the Reserve Bank’s lowering of its house price inflation forecast would generate a negative wealth effect.

Thank you , , , and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.

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Here’s the PDF of the presentation I used above.

Rbnzholdsmay27v2

2.63MB ∙ PDF file

Download

Download

Cheers

Bernard

1. The Greens have accused1 the Government of opening up a $1.4 billion hole in revenues by destroying confidence in the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), which led to the failure of eight ETS auctions that Treasury forecast to raise $1.4 billion.

2. The Post-$’2s Harriet Laughton reports this morning that former Health NZ Chair Lester Levy is still being paid $1,950/day to be an independent Health NZ board ‘advisor.’ That’s as well the board’s Crown observer, Hamiora Bowkett, also being paid $1,750 each day.

3. Ipsos NZ’s Issues Monitor3 conducted May found immigration was just the 13th biggest concern for New Zealand voters. It is the 5th biggest concern in Australia.

4. The Electricity Authority yesterday announced4 it would force Contact Energy, Genesis Energy, Mercury NZ and Meridian Energy to offer the same wholesale power hedging contracts to independent competitors as to their own retail arms5.

5. Financial markets see a small chance (20%) that the Reserve Bank will hike the OCR at 2pm today, while most economists see no change. A hike would deepen the scarring of a generation with a NEET (Not in Education, Employment or Training) rate at a 10-year high of 13.6% in the March quarter, and just as Kaitaia braces for the confirmation of the closure of two sawmills costing 200 jobs6.

6. Kiwifruit exporters’ migrant exploitation problem was on full display in an Employment Relations Authority ruling7 published yesterday, which detailed how Whakatane kiwifruit contractor Tarun Gautam exploited five workers by underpaying them and forcing at least one to ‘buy’ his job upfront.

Paying subscribers get the full Picks n’ Mixes below and access to Substack Live sessions, along with the PDF of the presentation used in the Substack Live attached below.

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1. RNZ1’s Farah Hancock has this morning detailed $1 million of political donations from firms linked to fast-track applications, reinforcing the concerns about our captured political economy.

2. A new survey2 of landlords has found their demand to buy homes at record lows, despite billions in extra tax reductions in recent years. Higher interest rates, falling house prices and flat rents are the driving factors.

3. Also contrary to the Government’s hopes the private sector will solve Aotearoa’s shortage of affordable homes, the survey found landlords’ plans to buy new or develop new homes at record lows.

4. But the good news for tenants is landlords’ plans to hike rents also at record lows.

5. The Government yesterday announced a Crown guarantee for $1.2 billion of bank loans to help big firms cut gas consumption, which could cost the Government $57 million in compensation for loans that go bad. This scheme will do the same thing as the GIDI scheme cancelled by the current Government because it was funded through the Climate Emergency Response Fund, which was used to pay for tax breaks for landlords, which aren’t solving the housing shortage3.

6. Oil prices fell 6.5% overnight, but don’t bet on this being the end of the fuel price shock. Oil analysts still expect stocks being drawn down at record rates will be close to their buffers the end of July or August, if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

Paying subscribers get the full Picks n’ Mixes below and access to Substack Live sessions, along with the PDF of the presentation used in the Substack Live attached below.

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1. The Treasury’s 30/30 rule1 of aiming to constantly reduce the size of Government and debt to below 30% of GDP is adhered to by both National and Labour. It is the Government’s ‘North Star.’ It will dominate in this Thursday’s Budget 2026 through spending cuts and restraint designed to put a sinking lid on the size of Government to meet an arbitrary target.

2. Meanwhile, food banks are again desperate for funding certainty from the Government on the eve of the Budget.

3. Also this week, financial markets see a 20% chance the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hike on Wednesday, although bank economists see the OCR held.

4. Secret lobbying of the Prime Minister’s office by Fonterra and Z Energy over climate litigation has been revealed in reports this morning by RNZ and The Post-$2.

5. Heart specialists are pointing to ‘superficially’ lower waiting lists driven by restrictions on referrals to specialists, Stuff reports3this morning.

6. A poll by Talbot Mills for Better Taxes for a Better Future finds majority support for bank profit levy, including among National and ACT voters4.

Paying subscribers get the full Picks n’ Mixes below and access to Substack Live sessions, along with the PDF of the presentation used in the Substack Live attached below.

My Picks ‘n Mixes

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The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night featured co-hosts & talking with regular guests from Wellington and in Dunedin about geopolitics, the economy, climate change and politics.

This edition also included discussions with historian and author on the conflict with Iran and from about bank competition.

This week:

• Bernard and Peter began with a chat the Government’s social housing spending cuts and shuffles announced yesterday, along with its pre-Budget announcement about cutting 8,700 jobs.

• Bernard, Peter and Cathrine then talked about Luke Kemp’s interview with Jack Tame on Q+A last weekend about ‘limitarianism.’

• Then Bernard, Peter, Robert talked about the latest in the Middle East and China with Jonathan.

• Then Bernard and Peter finished with a discussion with Tex about bank competition. They mentioned Tex’s scheduled appearance at this Auckland University debate this coming Wednesday evening: Rebalancing Markets: Competition, power, and a fair economy.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey.

The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in last year’s New Zealand Podcast awards.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free.

Ngā mihi nui.

Bernard

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1. Chris Bishop and Louise Upston yesterday announced1 plans to increase rents paid by 85,000 state house tenant families by around $33 per week, arguing tenants’ contribution needed to rise from a cap of 25% of income to 30% of income because private renters often paid much higher shares of their income.

2. They announced the $387.5 million extra in rent received would be shifted to pay $374.3 million for an increase in Accommodation Supplement of around $30/week. The reform includes cutting $195.6 million from hardship support.

3. The reforms represent an income transfer from state tenants to private landlords.

4. This came as Stuff2 revealed last night that Upston claims $1,000k per week in accommodation assistance from the Government for living in her own flat in Wellington and is not subject to the same asset testing or income testing of state tenants or AS recipients.

5. Nicola Willis initially said3 state house tenants, who pay $108 less per week on average than private renters, had “effectively won the lotto,” by getting a state house. She later apologized for the comment and said: “I reached for the wrong metaphor.”

6. The social housing cuts came as a Perceptive survey4 on fuel stress amongst New Zealand and Australian consumers in early May found 70% of households were cutting spending here, while 58% were cutting in Australia. Also, Seek & BNZ reported yesterday job ads fell 0.7% in March, which was the second monthly fall in a row after eight consecutive months of rises5. See charts of the day below.

Paying subscribers get the full Picks n’ Mixes below and access to Substack Live sessions, along with the PDF of the presentation used in the Substack Live attached below. A full recorded video and podcast of today’s Chorus goes out to paying subscribers later today.

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My Picks ‘n Mixes

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Kia ora

Come and join us for our weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar with paying subscribers to The Kākā for an hour at 5 pm today.

Jump on this link on YouTube Livestream for our chat with myself, and regular guests and Otago Uni’s Professor , plus special guests historian and author and from .

Cheers

Bernard

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1. The Government is keeping secret the cost of a Public Private Partnership (PPP) deal about to be signed to build the 26km-long Warkworth-to-Te Hana section of the Northland Expressway (= RONS to protect ‘commercial confidentiality,’ even though the likely cost of up to $4 billion has a benefit to cost ratio of less than one, and tolls will cover barely 3% of the cost1.

2. Winston Peters has taunted Nicola Willis about his department, MFAT, being exempt from the $2.4 billion of cuts she plans to announce in next week’s Budget2.

3. Boomers looking to move on from their suburban homes don’t want to move into retirement village townhouses and villas and would prefer to downsize into standalone homes with several bedrooms and a garage, a survey3 has found.

4. The energy price shock is amplifying the cost of living crisis and starving retailers of discretionary spend, with inflation-adjusted per-capita spending with debit and credit cards falling to 2014 levels in April. (See attached Chart Pack)

5. New Zealand’s top diplomat, Vangelis Vitalis, now shares the views of Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin about ‘The law of the jungle returning4’ to the global world order of trading and diplomacy. The Russian and Chinese dictators said the same overnight in communique after a summit5.

6. Oil prices are expected to spike toward US$200 a barrel within weeks as refined diesel, jetfuel and petrol stocks draw down on reserves in the United States and Asia at an alarming rate, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz bearing down on the global oil supply system.

Paying subscribers get the full Picks n’ Mixes below and access to Substack Live sessions, along with the PDF of the presentation used in the Substack Live A full recorded video and podcast of today’s Chorus goes out to paying subscribers later today.

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1. Finance Minister Nicola Willis has announced plans to merge Government departments to reduce the size of the public service to around 1% of the population, or 55,000 people by mid-2029.

2. That target means cutting 8,700 workers from current levels of just over 64,000, delivering another hammer blow to Wellington’s economy.

3. The Government plans to rewrite disability laws to gazump a Supreme Court ruling that family members caring for disabled people were Government employees. The rewrite is designed to cap spending at $2.69 billion per year.

4. Job losses in the services sector, which employs the most New Zealanders, extended for a 29th consecutive month in April, according to the results published yesterday from the BNZ-BusinessNZ PSI survey.

5. BNZ’s Head of Research Stephen Toplis said1 the PSI survey and its twin the PMI survey on Friday showed an economy that was stalling in the June quarter.

6. New Zealand’s population grew by 16,800 or 0.3% to 5.361 million in the March quarter, including growth of attributable to 12,200 migrants, Stats NZ reported2 yesterday. Infrastructure planning, such as it is, assumes less than half that growth each quarter.

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1. Winston Peters has proposed1 a NZ First Government would buy back BNZ from National Australia Bank with borrowed money and investments from the NZ Super Fund and ACC. He hopes partial state ownership of the big four banks would boost competition and lower bank profitability. That hasn’t happened with either the power gentailers or Kiwibank.

2. Peters also proposed compulsory enrolment in KiwiSaver at birth with a $1,000 kickstart from the Government. It’s not immediately clear if ongoing contributions would be compulsory, or if the current withdrawal settings would stay.

3. Peters has again pledged not to change the age of eligibility or wage indexation for NZ Superannuation, contrasting with Christopher Luxon’s pledge National would immediately extend the age. Chris Hipkins has confirmed Labour would not means test NZ Super, after an initial report Labour might2.

4. Global bond yields jumped sharply over the weekend3 on growing fears about an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Those rises are likely to flow through to longer-term mortgage rates here.

5. Real estate agents, hospitality operators and manufacturers report a slump in auction activity, dining away from home and new factory orders through early May as high fuel prices and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz increase uncertainty and cut incomes for consumers, home buyers and businesses alike4.

6. In good news, Wellington’s Te Ara Tupua walking and cycling path from Ngauranga Gorge to Petone opened to the public over the weekend, and Meridian Energy got consent for a solar farm near Palmerston North able to power 30,000 homes, although it’s not making a final investment decision until the end of next year5.

Paying subscribers get my full Picks n’ Mixes below, early access to the Chorus video and podcast above and access to Substack Live sessions.

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They met Transport Minister Chris Bishop this week to talk about the review1, which is running headlong into a July 1 deadline to start a revised scheme with a lower subsidy (65% rather than 75%) and tougher eligibility criteria, designed to reduce the number of trips pensioners in Auckland are taking.

It’s designed to try to cap the size of Government at 30% of GDP, despite increased costs of ageing and the growing incidence of health issues.

Nick has written regularly about the review2, as has here3.

Thank you , , , , , and many others for tuning into my live video with and ! Join me for my next live video in the app.

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