Updated: Standby for bad things
Predictions are risky in news but the recent record of warnings from intelligence agencies suggests fresh risk of terror. Iran tries to cool the climate. Updated which you should not expect in future.
Terror warnings and the risk Iran reacts to Israel
Western intelligence agencies have issued a series of quite precise warnings about the risk of terror attacks against major events in Europe from European football matches to the Paris Olympics but of course it is hard to prepare or anticipate in any way.
Given the apparent failure of Russia to act on warnings from Washington or London — or maybe more charitably to do anything to prevent the ISIS-K attack on the Crocus City Hall concert venue — it is hard to know what the correct reaction is.
Then there is the separate but related warning from intelligence services, communicated through news media, that Iran and its proxies may be planning an imminent spectacular response to Israel killing Iranian officials in Damascus. Israel knew what might come when it levelled the Iranian consulate in one of its classic strikes that it never confirms but lets everyone assume was its doing.
Reuters reported on Friday that Iran was trying to signal that any reaction would not be off the scale in an apparent effort to calm the worst expectations: Iran aims to contain fallout in Israel response, will not be hasty, sources say
Update: I decided to insert it here. This blog/Substack cannot and will not substitute for widely reported on-the-sport journalism. However, now that we know how this phase of the Iran response to the Israeli destruction of the Damascus consulate has turned out, I thought I would just update this entry. (If this is wrong let me know.)
To me, as I try to absorb the hours I have spent tracking the news this week, the most important indicator of what it all means is the Iranian X comment from Tehran’s representative to the United Nations. It clearly (to me and yes it might be naive) that they want to de-escalate not escalate. I was also intrigued, though cautious, about a piece I will link to on the role of Netanyahu in escalating the entire climate.
The plucky Israel trope I grew up with is getting battered.
It may be that the world has little patience this time for the “plucky Israel” narrative six months into its obliteration of Gaza in retaliation for the October 7 incursion into Israel by Hamas guerrillas and a bloody massacre that killed nearly 1,200 people. Even Joe Biden has lost patience with the brutality deployed by Benjamin Netanyahu.
The Israeli prime minister has taken an almost nihilist or certainly fatalistic approach to allies that his rivals argue puts the very future of Israel in jeopardy. He may be waiting for a Trump presidency to rescue him but in the meantime he has trashed Israel’s reputation and helped create the once implausible idea that Israel itself could be accused of genocide (a term and crime that exists only because of the Holocaust.)
Meanwhile, Spanish, UK, US, and French intelligence services warn of imminent threats — most probably by some faction or other of Islamic State. Major football matches have been described as potential targets and police and authorities have clearly stepped up security where they can. The FBI has warned of threats in the United States. (To be clear, I am not drawing a causal link between any Islamic attacks and Israel’s right to defend itself against Hamas but it is the climate.)
Go deeper on these subjects
After six months, the war in Gaza is making Israel a pariah state, Jonathan Freedland in The Guardian calls out the damage to Israel’s reputation. See also his weekly podcast Unholy: Two Jews on The News with Israeli journalist Yonit Levi.
Opinion I’m Jewish, and I’ve covered wars. I know war crimes when I see them, by Peter Maass in the Washington Post gives a deeply personal view.
After six months of war, I fear we may lose Palestine completely, in The Guardian by Palestinian lawyer, activist and author Raja Shehadeh. If you don’t know it, his book Palestinian Walks is a subtle and poignant explanation of what he sees he has lost.
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